ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

956.1mb pressure with a flight level wind of 112kt so Pressure is well below what the NHC currently has it.

000
URNT15 KNHC 011142
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20151001
113300 2244N 07424W 6965 03016 9928 +083 +083 310071 073 046 006 00
113330 2245N 07423W 6966 03013 9919 +091 //// 316069 072 049 006 01
113400 2246N 07421W 6943 03038 9905 +100 +100 314072 078 049 011 03
113430 2247N 07419W 6961 03005 //// +073 //// 314073 076 051 007 05
113500 2248N 07418W 6976 02983 //// +086 //// 317072 074 /// /// 05
113530 2249N 07416W 6959 02999 9859 +094 +093 321076 078 /// /// 05
113600 2250N 07415W 6968 02981 9862 +094 //// 321078 080 078 010 01
113630 2251N 07413W 6960 02982 9869 +094 +094 320082 083 060 009 00
113700 2252N 07412W 6964 02968 9865 +092 +092 320084 085 063 013 00
113730 2253N 07411W 6965 02953 9852 +090 +090 318089 092 064 021 00
113800 2254N 07409W 6947 02958 9831 +095 +095 317092 096 059 036 00
113830 2255N 07408W 6967 02919 9801 +106 +106 324090 096 071 054 00
113900 2256N 07406W 6971 02903 9781 +113 +113 326093 096 073 034 03
113930 2257N 07405W 6967 02893 9767 +113 +113 321095 097 080 017 00
114000 2258N 07403W 6957 02886 9729 +113 +113 322101 101 083 012 00
114030 2259N 07402W 6963 02859 9719 +113 +113 320100 102 086 014 00
114100 2300N 07401W 6971 02828 9693 +115 +115 320104 107 087 023 00
114130 2301N 07359W 6961 02816 9660 +119 +119 322107 108 091 040 03
114200 2302N 07358W 6962 02786 9627 +123 +123 325111 112 129 025 03
114230 2303N 07356W 6964 02755 9561 +135 +135 330108 112 117 019 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon finding 112 kt flight level winds in the SW quadrant so far and central pressure likely much below 950 mb. I'd guess around 940 or so with those found in the SW eyewall. Keep in mind SFMR readings are sketchy regardless of rain rate due to the shallow waters around the Bahamas.

[NDG]

Wow.

AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20151001
113300 2244N 07424W 6965 03016 9928 +083 +083 310071 073 046 006 00
113330 2245N 07423W 6966 03013 9919 +091 //// 316069 072 049 006 01
113400 2246N 07421W 6943 03038 9905 +100 +100 314072 078 049 011 03
113430 2247N 07419W 6961 03005 //// +073 //// 314073 076 051 007 05
113500 2248N 07418W 6976 02983 //// +086 //// 317072 074 /// /// 05
113530 2249N 07416W 6959 02999 9859 +094 +093 321076 078 /// /// 05
113600 2250N 07415W 6968 02981 9862 +094 //// 321078 080 078 010 01
113630 2251N 07413W 6960 02982 9869 +094 +094 320082 083 060 009 00
113700 2252N 07412W 6964 02968 9865 +092 +092 320084 085 063 013 00
113730 2253N 07411W 6965 02953 9852 +090 +090 318089 092 064 021 00
113800 2254N 07409W 6947 02958 9831 +095 +095 317092 096 059 036 00
113830 2255N 07408W 6967 02919 9801 +106 +106 324090 096 071 054 00
113900 2256N 07406W 6971 02903 9781 +113 +113 326093 096 073 034 03
113930 2257N 07405W 6967 02893 9767 +113 +113 321095 097 080 017 00
114000 2258N 07403W 6957 02886 9729 +113 +113 322101 101 083 012 00
114030 2259N 07402W 6963 02859 9719 +113 +113 320100 102 086 014 00
114100 2300N 07401W 6971 02828 9693 +115 +115 320104 107 087 023 00
114130 2301N 07359W 6961 02816 9660 +119 +119 322107 108 091 040 03
114200 2302N 07358W 6962 02786 9627 +123 +123 325111 112 129 025 03
114230 2303N 07356W 6964 02755 9561 +135 +135 330108 112 117 019 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[seatrump]

In Providenciales we have steady tropical storm force winds with higher gusts. We are still not under and warning or even a watch. Someone has messed up big time. Friends on the island are reporting damage.

[NDG]

956.1mb pressure with a flight level wind of 112kt so Pressure is well below what the NHC currently has it.

It has not penatrated the eye yet.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Yes I know. That's why I said the pressure is going to be a ways below the 948mb that the NHC currently has it at.

[NDG]

Just wow! Amazing how as quickly as the eastern Atlantic MDR's conditions went bad the western Atlantic got better.

[Weatherwatcher98]

In Providenciales we have steady tropical storm force winds with higher gusts. We are still not under and warning or even a watch. Someone has messed up big time. Friends on the island are reporting damage.

Stay Safe!!!

[NDG]

Recon's raw pressure reading around 939mb so it is probably around 940-942mb.

[NotoSans]

Extrapolated pressure of 938.9 mb reported by aircraft. Maximum SFMR winds were 129 kt but seem not reliable.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[NDG]

BTW, the lowest pressure was found near 23.15N!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Alyono]

recon has found that the southwestward motion is continuing. It's a bit east of where the models indicated it would be as well

[NotoSans]

...EYE OF JOAQUIN NEAR SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.2°N 73.7°W
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

No change in MSW. Pressure down to 942 mb though. Looks like a significant mismatch between winds and pressure.

[kungfut]

Any reports from Eleuthera bahamas?? I have friends and family there

[NDG]

Interesting that the SW quadrant is stronger than the NE quadrant per the recon's reports.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[NDG]

Any reports from Eleuthera bahamas?? I have friends and family there

Weather there is currently not bad, worst of the weather is further south and east, at least for now.

[tatertawt24]

Looks like the eye is once again trying to pop out. This time's a charm?