ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[TheProfessor]

I'm still learning to read maps, but is there a weakness near ex-Ida yet? because if it isn't there yet it seems like that would keep the storm further west until it possibly develops.

[NDG]

The EC has to verify until then its to early to be singing praise's :

Well compared to the GFS handling Joaquin since it formed, the Euro is winning so far. And I go with the model that has been the most persistent and consistent, the Euro.

[CrazyC83]

We must not let our guard down yet. Consistency is key, and the Ida region is poorly sampled, along with the northern ridge.

[caneman]

lets not forget the FIRST model to show an east coast landfall with Joaquin was THE EURO

The hugging of this model is borderline cultish in that everyone ignores the failures

i,agree. It's ridiculous. The facts are that the gfs and euro are 50 50 from 2012 - 2014. Further, the storm isnt over so there is no verfication. I really wish something would be done with the non sense. If the euro is right then good it needed a huge win this year. It's not like cheering for a super bowl team. The more accurate all of the models are, the better for everyone. Lives saved, property saved, money saved form needless evacuations, preparations, etc... It's misleading for the newbies that come on here for this hyberbole.I've never understood the modeling wars.

[tolakram]

Models are not a sport, and I honestly do not care what individuals think of the models. In my role as moderator I don't think these kinds of discussion add any value to this thread so I'm asking people to stop. Thanks.

[Stormcenter]

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the EURO the only model last week to show two weak two lows in the GOM earlier this week? One in the western and the other in eastern GOM. I believe that is exactly how it played, just saying.

[NDG]

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the EURO the only model last week to show two weak two lows in the GOM earlier this week? One in the western and the other in eastern GOM. I believe that is exactly how it played, just saying.

You are correct, it did well with 99L but at the same time it did not do that well with Ida.

Regarding Joaquin, I have always said that if it hangs around longer around the central Bahamas the less threat it will be for the mid Atlantic States, on the last few runs the GFS started following the Euro in keeping Joaquin down there longer thus it started trending to the right.
But Joaquin could still be a threat to New England if ridging in the NW Atlantic stays put, time will tell.

[stormlover2013]

these models are like baseball players, they go 0-3 sometimes and they can go 4-4 but the difference is GFS is the sammy sosa of baseball the euro is the Barry Bonds of baseball

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  JOAQUIN     AL112015  10/01/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   110   111   111   112   112   115   113   104    96    82    71    62    51
V (KT) LAND      110   111   111   112   112   115   113   104    96    82    71    62    51
V (KT) LGE mod   110   111   110   109   109   109   111   104    89    72    59    50    43
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)        15    12     9     4     5     8    16    21    28    32    34    36    36
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    11    16    17    14    10     4     5     7     7     6     0     7     9
SHEAR DIR          3    16    14    10   320   288   303   274   264   237   219   222   240
SST (C)         29.7  29.7  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.8  29.5  28.2  27.8  26.8  26.5  25.1  22.4
POT. INT. (KT)   161   161   161   164   165   166   161   141   135   120   116   106    90
ADJ. POT. INT.   140   139   140   147   147   149   145   126   116    98    95    91    80
200 MB T (C)   -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -49.7 -48.5 -48.5 -48.7 -49.2 -49.4 -49.6
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    10    10     9     8     8     4     1     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     61    64    65    66    66    63    54    46    57    62    62    61    46
MODEL VTX (KT)    30    32    34    34    33    38    40    39    40    38    39    41    40
850 MB ENV VOR    68    83    89   102   123   147   183   240   166   124   138   129   133
200 MB DIV        46    42    26    51    75    72    94    49    73    59    74    56    14
700-850 TADV       6    11    12     7    11    17    22    68    80    68    58     8   -25
LAND (KM)        300   266   233   271   321   522   635   540   275   163   144   121    76
LAT (DEG N)     23.1  22.9  22.6  23.2  23.8  25.5  27.6  30.5  33.7  35.5  35.8  37.4  40.1
LONG(DEG W)     73.7  73.9  74.1  74.5  74.8  74.1  73.7  73.8  73.7  74.1  74.3  74.2  72.6
STM SPEED (KT)     4     3     3     7     7    10    13    15    13     6     4    11    14
HEAT CONTENT      56    57    37    57    26    59    55    27    13     7     1     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/  5      CX,CY:  -2/ -3
  T-12 MAX WIND: 100            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  523  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   4.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   0.  -3. -10. -20. -29. -38. -44. -49. -54.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -2.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -2.   0.   0.   1.   0.  -2.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -7.  -6.  -5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   8.  10.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -6.  -9. -12. -15.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   1.   5.   8.   7.   8.   5.   5.   7.   5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   8.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -7.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   1.   2.   2.   5.   3.  -6. -14. -28. -39. -48. -59.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN    10/01/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.3 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   4.9 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.2
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.2 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  32.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  46.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.2
 

[txwatcher91]

FWIW the high resolution RGEM has an interesting solution here it is at hour 48.

[stormlover2013]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... ck_gfs.png



GFS ensembles

[stormlover2013]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

[Andy_L]

Thanks Mark. I rarely post, but I'm here reading and learning a LOT. Its frustrating as someone wanting to learn more and more about tropical weather to have to weed through the "my model is better than your model!!!" threads.

cheers
Andy

Models are not a sport, and I honestly do not care what individuals think of the models. In my role as moderator I don't think these kinds of discussion add any value to this thread so I'm asking people to stop. Thanks.

[windnrain]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2015/al112015/track_gfs/aal11_2015100106_track_gfs.png



GFS ensembles

9 landfalling, 10 not

[windnrain]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2015/al112015/track_early/aal11_2015100112_track_early.png

Lmao.

We have our first Florida hit.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Darn good thing that nobody has any faith in the CLIPper model. That scenario it shows would really not play out well for Florida if he just did a slow meander further southwest over the next 3 days and the front just fizzled away at its southern periphery as Joaquin pumped up the ridge to his northeast which allows him to miss the weakness connection to the north. Looks like the CLIP also doesn't let a full cutoff low form either, or immediately opens it back up. In any case, the time spent slowly drifting around south appears to show a missed connection with any supposed northern weakness through 72 hours. After that, who knows what could happen. Steering currents would remain weak I would suspect, or maybe 90L could eventual cause a weakness to the northeast to allow J to escape the trapping ridge. Then again, maybe with the front passage or disintegration, the ridge could ooze back west and cause J to continue a WSW drift until Hispanola ripped him up.
Of course, that meandering thought pattern was all pure conjecture based on the CLIP's read this morning....not that it will happen. Don't listen to me, follow NHC guidance, blah blah blah.

[RL3AO]

I have more faith in XTRP that CLPR

[ronjon]

Clipper isn't a model - based on climatology of storms in similar locations.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

agree ronjon that is isn't a true model taking into account as many minute factors, but in a way it still is, as it just looks at what storms have done in the past under similar broad based scenarios, and heading in the current direction a storm is heading. In this case, it shows a likely path based on: don't believe the cutoff low forms as expected by others. -as climatology rarely (if ever) would include that scenario having played out.
If other models start dropping the strong cutoff low scenario, it may prove a more accurate prediction. --but that is surely not the expectation, at least at this point in the game. But it can answer some people's "what if?" questions that I recently saw if the cutoff low doesn't form after all.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

haha RL3AO! actually, the XTRAP may have been the most accurate prognosticator with Joaquin over the last 2 days! haha!