ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[PTrackerLA]

12z UKMET now passes just west of Bermuda...

[northjaxpro]

Come on gang. No model war about the EURO and GFS today. We have beaten that horse to death over the years haven't we? Please gang. Talk about it another day, another time.

[Blown Away]

Models have gone from NC, Philly, NY, and now Bermuda after pounding Bahamas... Next step for the models is to miss the trough and meander around...

[NDG]

All I want to know what is wrong with people that are giving the credit to the Euro, at least for its short term forecast which has verified, they should not be attacked from the people I disagree with.

[northjaxpro]

Nothing wrong NDG with giving the EURO or any model its proper due if it indeed comes to fruition. However, I can already see this beginning to evolve into a model war debate and we have just beaten this horse to death time after time. Let the model war debate die off for now folks. It just gets so tiresome at times. Talk about this another time when we have a slow time on the forum boards.

[txwatcher91]

Near term we need to keep in mind all those in San Salvador and surrounding areas. Just because it doesn't affect us doesn't change that there may be many homes destroyed by this, HWRF at 21 hours has a 912 hurricane with 134.7kt surface winds and this island is in the right front quad.

[windnrain]

As much as we like to make fun of HWRF, its nailed intensity

[Blinhart]

Near term we need to keep in mind all those in San Salvador and surrounding areas. Just because it doesn't affect us doesn't change that there may be many homes destroyed by this, HWRF at 21 hours has a 912 hurricane with 134.7kt surface winds and this island is in the right front quad.

I'm sorry when a system this strong is going over small islands it doesn't matter which quadrant you are in, it will be bad. There is nothing really weakening any quadrants so they are all bad.

[sandyb]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp30.png can someone explain this is it a good model run?

[windnrain]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

[sandyb]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

I wish someone would answer that question I think that is a new run on the HWRF will there be more models leaning that way their next run?

[AdamFirst]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2015100106-joaquin11l/slp30.png can someone explain this is it a good model run?

That was an older model run of the HWRF. Keep an eye on this thread for the new one which is currently being processed.

[sandyb]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2015100106-joaquin11l/slp30.png can someone explain this is it a good model run?

That was an older model run of the HWRF. Keep an eye on this thread for the new one which is currently being processed.

can you list the times that the new models run? I can not seem to find that information
thank you

[drewschmaltz]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

I wish someone would answer that question I think that is a new run on the HWRF will there be more models leaning that way their next run?

Uhhh... the past 80 some odd pages directly address this. I know literally nothing coming into each of these threads and I now at work I go on ad nauseam. I'm taking a tough tone because I think "I wish someone would answer ..." is unfair when very knowledgeable people have explained the setup through posts, charts, videos, etc. for days.

[sicktght311]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

I wish someone would answer that question I think that is a new run on the HWRF will there be more models leaning that way their next run?

Uhhh... the past 80 some odd pages directly address this. I know literally nothing coming into each of these threads and I now at work I go on ad nauseam. I'm taking a tough tone because I think "I wish someone would answer ..." is unfair when very knowledgeable people have explained the setup through posts, charts, videos, etc. for days.

+1. You're never gonna learn to interpret this stuff unless you read and research on your own. Theres always a WEALTH of knowledge in these forum threads, if you're willing to take the time to fully read them all. Just popping on here and going "So am i gonna get hit?" is a waste of your time and everyone else's

[drezee]

Even the HWRF is out to sea now...I wish it would just go NE now and spare the rest of the Bahamas...

[TheProfessor]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

I wish someone would answer that question I think that is a new run on the HWRF will there be more models leaning that way their next run?

I believe what the models that are hitting the coast are picking up on is that ex Ida won't weaken the ridge as much as the out to sea models are predicting. The HWRF is (or was since I don't know what the 12z has in store yet) also predicting for the High to be amplified and pushed further south pushing Joaquin into North Carolina/Virginia.

[NDG]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

I wish someone would answer that question I think that is a new run on the HWRF will there be more models leaning that way their next run?

The problem that I see with the HWRF with Joaquin is that it has been having a poleward bias with the storm, thus having a better chance being picked up by the cut off ULL, run after run it has been wanting to move Joaquin northward faster than it has actually been taking place, just 24 hrs ago it was forecasting Joaquin to be at 24.5N & 74.2W and start gaining big time latitude as early as tonight.

[sandyb]

So what is the HWRF and the other models that send it into the coast picking up on?

I wish someone would answer that question I think that is a new run on the HWRF will there be more models leaning that way their next run?

Uhhh... the past 80 some odd pages directly address this. I know literally nothing coming into each of these threads and I now at work I go on ad nauseam. I'm taking a tough tone because I think "I wish someone would answer ..." is unfair when very knowledgeable people have explained the setup through posts, charts, videos, etc. for days.

I am so sorry to offend you, I promise not to make another post

[JtSmarts]

Even the HWRF is out to sea now...I wish it would just go NE now and spare the rest of the Bahamas...

Up to about 66 hours on Levi's site and definitely looks OTS. Almost all the major models are starting to come into agreement.