ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[TimeZone]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yep.

This is certainly not a threat to North America.

Hell, the models are even East of me in Atlantic Canada now. Euro wins this hands down. All the other models looking quite foolish.

[tomboudreau]

Yep.

This is certainly not a threat to North America.

Hell, the models are even East of me in Atlantic Canada now. Euro wins this hands down. All the other models looking quite foolish.

Last I checked, the Bahamas are part of North America. This statement is FALSE! Those people are taking one on the chin today and tonight.

[Weatherwatcher98]

For Anyone who thinks this could effect Florida. 0% Chance of that happening.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 011346
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HURRICANE JOAQUIN
SPINNING NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE A DRY AIRMASS IS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE KTBW
12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 1.76 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
NATURE COAST.

]OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A STRONG TROUGH
PUSHING INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HELPING TO STEER HURRICANE JOAQUIN NORTH AND AWAY FROM
FLORIDA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST. OVER THE INTERIOR...KLAL IS THE
ONLY TAF SITE THAT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING OUT BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL START TO TURN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS JOAQUIN LIFTS NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS A TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

[Andy_L]

the people underneath the storm right NOW might take exception to your statement. and you might want to add a disclaimer

Yep.

This is certainly not a threat to North America.

Hell, the models are even East of me in Atlantic Canada now. Euro wins this hands down. All the other models looking quite foolish.

[JtSmarts]

Of course we have a few more runs before we can sound the all clear, but things are looking a lot better for non-Bahamas land areas today. Too bad many of us in the se/mid-atlantic are still going to see historic flooding regardless of what Joaquin does, yikes.

[AutoPenalti]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yep.

This is certainly not a threat to North America.

Hell, the models are even East of me in Atlantic Canada now. Euro wins this hands down. All the other models looking quite foolish.

How are you basing this now? This monster is stalled right next door to us and you're concluding with no confirmation that it's going out to see and that the euro model is king? I'm confused.

EDIT: Nvm.

[TimeZone]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yep.

This is certainly not a threat to North America.

Hell, the models are even East of me in Atlantic Canada now. Euro wins this hands down. All the other models looking quite foolish.

How are you basing this now? This monster is stalled right next door to us and you're concluding with no confirmation that it's going out to see and that the euro model is king? I'm confused.

EDIT: Nvm.

I was talking about the main land.

[TheProfessor]

Is it possible all the models could be wrong? could the storm move too far west and not enough north where it misses the cut off low and the opening out to sea?

[NDG]

Is it possible all the models could be wrong? could the storm move too far west and not enough north where it misses the cut off low and the opening out to sea?

Chances are very low of that happening at this time, IMO.

[stormlover2013]

Euro is about the roll, watch it have it hit florida and then shoot out to sea....then that will really make everyone brains hurt over these models lol

[deltadog03]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

[windnrain]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

Are you positive the Euro is going to be right?

[hurricanetrack]

Feel like Carolina beat Duke in basketball and we will not hear the end of it until Duke restores order. Basketball And Hurricanes: One's Man Journey Into the Eye, in bookstores this November.

[stormlover2013]

nobody is positive but its just the euro had a good grasp on the upper pattern better than the GFS this time, and now all the sucky models like Navy, CMC, Nam, or showing US hit and GFS and EURO aren't so thats why confident wise people are taking a deep breathe that this now could be a fisher

[windnrain]

12z GFDL:

[stormlover2013]

GFDL is another bad model just like cmc and navy, used to be descent like 15 years ago

[windnrain]

GFS ensembles....

Wants to take it northeast RIGHT NOW.

Its still moving west though.

[tolakram]

The GFS ensemble upgrade later this month might be a start, but it's pretty sad when we need to spend who knows how much in upper air soundings in order to match the performance of the euro. The GFS isn't always wrong, but when it is wrong it's generally due to it missing the large scale patterns. IMO.

[Ken Lucas]

12z GFDL:

Is that GFDL model run forecasting a Cat 4 at landfall?

_________________
Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and as such should NOT be treated as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

First check of the weather today and find out the Euro won out, looks like a more typical October track shaping up once the northward turn occurs.