ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

No, the HR Euro run that I have shows a WSW movement during the day, which is what it has been doing ending this evening and then begin a a very slow NNW to N movement after midnight through the day tomorrow, then a NE start tomorrow night.

I also have the HR Euro. It has it below 23N at 0z tonight near the tip of long island. Like I said, I think it will be N of there...we shall see

I dont know whether its the eye tightening or what, but there has not been any southerly component to this in the last several hours and it it riding just north of 23N. It is also well north of the NHC's next forecast point
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Sanibel]

The core is doing the fist (Intensifying).

I literally coined the term many years ago. What you see are mesovortices not a fist. It did that last night. It typically is such an explosive tower that it obscures the eye then wraps around.

What it's doing now I call "rip curling". It is intensifying so an intensification surge rips away from the round eyewall and curls into the center. Probably a product of winds surging into to the center so fast in an intensification phase that the center can't even it out.

[windnrain]

If its going to pump the ridge, nows the time.

[tropicwatch]

No, the HR Euro run that I have shows a WSW movement during the day, which is what it has been doing ending this evening and then begin a a very slow NNW to N movement after midnight through the day tomorrow, then a NE start tomorrow night.

I also have the HR Euro. It has it below 23N at 0z tonight near the tip of long island. Like I said, I think it will be N of there...we shall see

I dont know whether its the eye tightening or what, but there has not been any southerly component to this in the last several hours and it it riding just north of 23N

Last four center fixes first to last.
23°09'N 73°43'W
23°06'N 73°48'W
23°04'N 73°59'W
23°02'N 74°08'W

[drezee]

The core is doing the fist (Intensifying).

I literally coined the term many years ago. What you see are mesovortices not a fist. It did that last night. It typically is such an explosive tower that it obscures the eye then wraps around.

What it's doing now I call "rip curling". It is intensifying so an intensification surge rips away from the round eyewall and curls into the center. Probably a product of winds surging into to the center so fast in an intensification phase that the center can't even it out.

I wish the eye would clear out so we would get a high res view of it...

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the Eye has pushed just a bit North of west the last 2 frames.

[NDG]

No, the HR Euro run that I have shows a WSW movement during the day, which is what it has been doing ending this evening and then begin a a very slow NNW to N movement after midnight through the day tomorrow, then a NE start tomorrow night.

I also have the HR Euro. It has it below 23N at 0z tonight near the tip of long island. Like I said, I think it will be N of there...we shall see

What makes you say that when it is still moving "WSW"? So do you think that a more WNW to NW track will start sooner than later? By the way, the Euro I am looking at shows the forecast for every 3 hrs and not for every 24 hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the Eye has pushed just a bit North of west the last 2 frames.

Looks like a wobble again.

[MGC]

Looks like the hurricane has started the westward turn. Pressure dropping so winds will likely catch up soon. Perhaps Cat-4 later today. JB was just on the Fox Business Channel. He still thinks the hurricane will go out to sea......MGC

[tropicwatch]

JB has always liked to stick his neck out a little.

[ScottNAtlanta]

No, the HR Euro run that I have shows a WSW movement during the day, which is what it has been doing ending this evening and then begin a a very slow NNW to N movement after midnight through the day tomorrow, then a NE start tomorrow night.

I also have the HR Euro. It has it below 23N at 0z tonight near the tip of long island. Like I said, I think it will be N of there...we shall see
I dont know whether its the eye tightening or what, but there has not been any southerly component to this in the last several hours and it it riding just north of 23N
Last four center fixes first to last.
23°09'N 73°43'W
23°06'N 73°48'W
23°04'N 73°59'W
23°02'N 74°08'W

...and the trend on all 4 has been less of a southward component. What I am saying is that according to last several frames the southward component has stopped.

[kat61]

If its going to pump the ridge, nows the time.

what does 'pump the ridge mean?'

[drezee]

What makes you say that when it is still moving WNW? So do you think that a more WNW to NW track will start sooner than later? By the way, the Euro I am looking at shows the forecast for every 3 hrs and not for every 24 hrs.

to simplify, the lowest latitude the Euro gets to is around 0Z tonight or 8pm eastern...Joaquin will be N of the 0z Euro position at 8pm tonight

[ScottNAtlanta]

On the water vapor loop the trough is retrograding if you look around coastal Georgia. (bending back to the west).
Does anyone know how far south the trouph axis was supposed to get over the SE US? Its awfully far south for what I was expecting.

[NDG]

Crooked Island getting bad now, I can only imagine the storm surge, hope everyone there is on higher ground.

[TheProfessor]

On the water vapor loop the trough is retrograding if you look around coastal Georgia. (bending back to the west).
Does anyone know how far south the trouph axis was supposed to get over the SE US? Its awfully far south for what I was expecting.

It definitely looks like the eastward movement has slowed down the past 6 hours.

[NDG]

What makes you say that when it is still moving WNW? So do you think that a more WNW to NW track will start sooner than later? By the way, the Euro I am looking at shows the forecast for every 3 hrs and not for every 24 hrs.

to simplify, the lowest latitude the Euro gets to is around 0Z tonight or 8pm eastern...Joaquin will be N of the 0z Euro position at 8pm tonight

Like I said earlier, it has it at 22.9N at 3z tonight, just going by the run that I have which shows every 3 hrs.

[Hammy]

Is an ERC beginning? There was a secondary band of 100kt flight winds as the plane departed.

[NotoSans]

Latest advisory bumped the intensity to 115 kt

...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.0°N 74.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[drezee]

What makes you say that when it is still moving WNW? So do you think that a more WNW to NW track will start sooner than later? By the way, the Euro I am looking at shows the forecast for every 3 hrs and not for every 24 hrs.

to simplify, the lowest latitude the Euro gets to is around 0Z tonight or 8pm eastern...Joaquin will be N of the 0z Euro position at 8pm tonight

Like I said earlier, it has it at 22.9N at 3z tonight, just going by the run that I have which shows every 3 hrs.

The quote seems as if what you are saying is unique...everyone on earth who has a computer and the internet has the High Res for free at 3 hour intervals at the link below:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

You can zoom to a house if you want to...LoL

I am not sure the point you are making,

1. the Euro has it S of 23N: we both agree
2. the 3hr that everyone has shows that: agreed
3. I stated that it will be N of the 22.85N which is a 0z: simple