ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

I doubt it's weakening when convection is only getting stronger, there's a lot of black on AVN imagery.

[tatertawt24]

This thing just cannot keep an eye.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012229
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 20 20151001
222030 2354N 07734W 3757 08020 0396 -173 -422 051027 027 /// /// 03
222100 2352N 07732W 3757 08020 0396 -174 -423 051027 028 /// /// 03
222130 2351N 07730W 3757 08020 0396 -177 -423 048025 027 /// /// 03
222200 2350N 07728W 3757 08019 0395 -175 -422 049028 028 030 001 03
222230 2348N 07726W 3757 08020 0394 -175 -421 051030 030 030 001 00
222300 2347N 07724W 3757 08018 0393 -176 -417 051031 031 032 001 00
222330 2345N 07722W 3757 08017 0391 -179 -408 053033 034 032 001 00
222400 2344N 07720W 3757 08014 0390 -179 -405 058035 036 031 001 00
222430 2343N 07718W 3755 08017 0390 -182 -407 063036 036 030 001 00
222500 2341N 07717W 3755 08015 0389 -180 -410 061037 037 029 002 00
222530 2340N 07715W 3758 08010 0388 -179 -412 061037 038 029 002 00
222600 2339N 07713W 3755 08013 0387 -183 -413 063037 038 032 001 00
222630 2337N 07711W 3757 08010 0385 -185 -414 064037 038 031 001 00
222700 2336N 07709W 3757 08008 0384 -190 -410 063036 036 032 001 00
222730 2334N 07707W 3755 08009 0382 -190 -400 062038 039 032 002 00
222800 2333N 07705W 3757 08005 0381 -190 -390 060038 038 033 002 03
222830 2332N 07703W 3755 08007 0381 -190 -384 063037 038 031 001 00
222900 2330N 07701W 3758 08003 0380 -188 -364 058040 042 031 001 00
222930 2329N 07659W 3758 08003 0380 -190 -312 052042 043 031 001 00
223000 2328N 07657W 3754 08009 0379 -190 -320 052039 042 032 001 00
$$
;

Should be there shortly.

[tropicwatch]

I heard that a recon plane was on the way to the hurricane. How close is it now? Wonder what will happen.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012240
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 21 20151001
223030 2326N 07655W 3758 08001 0378 -190 -329 049041 042 031 002 00
223100 2325N 07653W 3756 08003 0377 -191 -291 046042 043 035 001 00
223130 2323N 07651W 3757 08001 0377 -194 -269 047044 047 036 001 00
223200 2322N 07649W 3757 08002 0376 -192 -265 047047 048 035 001 00
223230 2321N 07647W 3758 07998 0376 -186 -264 045049 051 034 001 00
223300 2319N 07645W 3755 08003 0376 -185 -271 046051 051 036 001 00
223330 2318N 07643W 3757 07999 0375 -185 -268 047051 052 037 000 00
223400 2317N 07642W 3756 07998 0373 -190 -258 048053 053 036 000 00
223430 2315N 07640W 3758 07994 0371 -192 -253 047053 053 037 001 00
223500 2314N 07638W 3757 07993 0368 -195 -247 046054 054 038 000 00
223530 2312N 07636W 3758 07987 0365 -194 -242 044054 055 036 001 00
223600 2311N 07634W 3755 07993 0364 -196 -248 045052 054 035 002 00
223630 2310N 07632W 3755 07989 0364 -197 -250 044054 056 036 001 00
223700 2308N 07630W 3806 07894 0361 -199 -247 049058 058 035 001 00
223730 2307N 07628W 3893 07726 0351 -185 -245 046056 059 033 002 00
223800 2305N 07626W 3978 07559 0339 -170 -240 040054 057 034 002 00
223830 2304N 07624W 4062 07401 0326 -154 -243 033056 058 035 001 00
223900 2303N 07622W 4138 07256 0311 -151 -236 022050 056 035 001 00
223930 2301N 07620W 4227 07088 0298 -141 -208 015047 048 036 003 00
224000 2300N 07618W 4302 06957 0291 -132 -207 011047 048 037 002 00
$$
;

Descending.

[tropicwatch]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012249
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20151001
224030 2259N 07616W 4358 06855 0284 -125 -203 005047 048 038 001 00
224100 2257N 07614W 4418 06750 0275 -117 -195 359049 050 038 001 00
224130 2256N 07612W 4489 06627 0261 -107 -193 357049 050 036 002 00
224200 2254N 07610W 4565 06482 0243 -098 -193 353050 051 038 002 00
224230 2253N 07608W 4669 06305 0231 -082 -192 351051 051 039 002 00
224300 2251N 07606W 4761 06152 0220 -071 -188 351053 053 040 001 00
224330 2250N 07604W 4841 06019 0209 -067 -155 352053 053 040 001 00
224400 2248N 07602W 4935 05866 0197 -056 -126 349053 053 040 001 00
224430 2247N 07600W 5029 05717 0186 -044 -125 350054 054 042 002 00
224500 2245N 07558W 5127 05564 0176 -033 -115 353055 055 042 001 00
224530 2244N 07556W 5249 05376 0163 -023 -101 356055 055 042 002 00
224600 2243N 07554W 5369 05193 0149 -010 -094 357056 056 044 002 00
224630 2241N 07552W 5474 05035 0136 +001 -088 355056 057 046 002 00
224700 2240N 07551W 5540 04935 9900 +012 -087 353057 057 046 003 00
224730 2238N 07549W 5682 04736 9909 +021 -072 351056 057 047 002 03
224800 2237N 07547W 5890 04441 9921 +030 -049 346055 056 046 002 00
224830 2235N 07545W 6111 04146 9930 +047 -031 340055 056 047 002 00
224900 2234N 07543W 6326 03859 9918 +071 -025 335057 057 048 001 00
224930 2233N 07541W 6556 03561 9913 +089 -011 328059 061 049 001 00
225000 2231N 07539W 6793 03262 9923 +097 +000 323063 064 049 001 00
$$
;

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

I'm not seeing the negative tilt that is supposed to be occurring.

[Hammy]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

I'm not seeing the negative tilt that is supposed to be occurring.

What does a negatively tilted trough refer to exactly?

[ozonepete]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

I'm not seeing the negative tilt that is supposed to be occurring.

The negative tilt isn't supposed to start until Saturday.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Enjoy the cooler weather. Not going to happen. Florida is safe

[ozonepete]

Is Joaquin's eye filling in from bursting or could this be the first signs of weakening?

If you look at infrared its not filling in, its getting smaller...I bet there will be an EWR cycle here soon.
If you zoom it looks like there are small vortexes in the eyewall

For sure an EWR is starting. You can see the outer, larger eyewall completed around the original eyewall just a little while ago. That's why the original eyewall shrinking down to nothing now.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening ozonepete. Want to get your insights on the latest with Joaquin. I have shared some thoughts of my own.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012301
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20151001
225030 2230N 07537W 6951 03057 9903 +113 +007 322065 065 048 002 00
225100 2228N 07535W 6966 03036 9898 +115 +005 323065 066 050 001 00
225130 2227N 07533W 6971 03027 9897 +115 +007 324066 066 051 002 00
225200 2225N 07531W 6959 03041 9895 +113 +007 324067 067 053 004 03
225230 2224N 07529W 6966 03030 9893 +113 +014 324066 067 052 003 03
225300 2224N 07527W 6965 03029 9903 +099 +044 321062 066 049 007 03
225330 2225N 07525W 6964 03015 9911 +081 +052 321060 064 050 009 03
225400 2226N 07523W 6979 03032 9919 +095 +030 327064 066 050 009 03
225430 2227N 07522W 6965 03041 9923 +095 +025 333064 065 053 006 03
225500 2227N 07522W 6965 03041 9897 +110 +021 328063 066 054 005 00
225530 2228N 07519W 6962 03034 9911 +098 +029 320067 068 054 004 03
225600 2229N 07517W 6969 03023 9912 +092 +032 317070 072 051 005 00
225630 2230N 07515W 6973 03015 9908 +093 +032 316071 073 055 004 00
225700 2231N 07513W 6963 03024 9905 +092 +033 321073 074 057 005 03
225730 2232N 07512W 6961 03021 9907 +084 +040 322074 075 056 006 03
225800 2233N 07510W 6962 03011 9909 +076 +037 327079 080 059 007 03
225830 2234N 07509W 6963 03002 9896 +079 +037 325080 081 060 008 00
225900 2235N 07507W 6967 02986 9886 +078 +045 325082 084 062 009 00
225930 2236N 07506W 6963 02984 9876 +079 +062 322083 084 064 011 00
230000 2236N 07504W 6975 02965 9872 +076 +069 324090 091 065 012 03
$$
;

Operational altitude. Wind field clearly expanding.

[ozonepete]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

I'm not seeing the negative tilt that is supposed to be occurring.

What does a negatively tilted trough refer to exactly?

It refers to v-shaped or u-shaped 500 mb troughs (mainly long-wave troughs) such as the trough now digging into the GOM. When the trough is oriented from the NE to the SW it is positively tilted. When straight N to S it's neutral. When NW to SE it's negatively tilted.

[AutoPenalti]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Enjoy the cooler weather. Not going to happen. Florida is safe

Not so fast. Remember as long as there isn't any poleward movement by tonight and into tomorrow there is still doubt in the models.

[ConvergenceZone]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012309
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 24 20151001
230030 2237N 07502W 6973 02964 9868 +072 +062 325092 093 064 013 03
230100 2238N 07501W 6951 02978 9825 +102 +055 331087 091 /// /// 03
230130 2239N 07459W 6980 02926 9815 +099 +046 330089 091 073 008 00
230200 2240N 07458W 6952 02950 9822 +077 +051 324091 092 073 012 00
230230 2241N 07456W 6983 02903 9821 +069 +061 322098 104 074 017 03
230300 2241N 07455W 6955 02922 9805 +070 +069 333098 104 078 027 00
230330 2242N 07453W 6977 02876 9783 +073 +073 329097 101 079 043 00
230400 2243N 07452W 6963 02871 9749 +079 +078 327108 110 080 064 00
230430 2244N 07450W 6970 02850 9725 +088 +088 328110 114 075 071 03
230500 2245N 07449W 6982 02816 9700 +097 +097 334106 111 089 075 00
230530 2245N 07447W 6956 02827 9666 +105 +105 337104 111 094 078 00
230600 2246N 07446W 6977 02774 9642 +101 +101 340112 118 105 060 03
230630 2247N 07445W 6964 02760 9611 +099 +099 342113 123 /// /// 03
230700 2247N 07444W 6970 02727 9567 +107 +098 346111 115 116 032 00
230730 2248N 07442W 6967 02710 9521 +127 +107 347115 118 113 009 00
230800 2249N 07441W 6975 02673 9487 +135 +109 346113 113 109 004 00
230830 2249N 07440W 6961 02667 9457 +140 +106 349100 113 099 006 03
230900 2250N 07439W 6977 02624 9433 +141 +111 353084 093 094 003 03
230930 2250N 07437W 6967 02614 9400 +148 +110 356070 080 073 004 03
231000 2251N 07435W 6972 02592 9373 +161 +096 358049 060 063 005 00
$$
;

123 kt FL, 116 kt SFMR in SW quad.

[CrazyC83]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

Such is especially true if it is seen the CONUS is all clear...which it definitely is NOT at this time.

[bahamaswx]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

I noticed that too.