ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[TimeZone]

GFS likely OTS again.

That'll pretty well do it for a potential landfall in US or Canada.

[windnrain]

[windnrain]

OTS

[wxman57]

The deterministic runs of the global models tell only a small part of the story. It's the ensemble members that tell the whole story. Below is a plot of the GFS (green) and EC (purple) ensembles from 12Z. As you can see, it's almost unanimous that Joaquin won't have any significant impact on the U.S. One of the EC ensemble members says Jacksonville, FL, though.

[northjaxpro]

The deterministic runs of the global models tell only a small part of the story. It's the ensemble members that tell the whole story. Below is a plot of the GFS (green) and EC (purple) ensembles from 12Z. As you can see, it's almost unanimous that Joaquin won't have any significant impact on the U.S. One of the EC ensemble members says Jacksonville, FL, though.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ECens.JPG

Yeah I see that lone member pointing at us wxman lol... I will try not to worry about that one too much ....

[Alyono]

noticed a difference between the cmc and gfs

CMC never brings the remnants of Ida to the west

[Weatherwatcher98]

noticed a difference between the cmc and gfs

CMC never brings the remnants of Ida to the west

The cmc

[Ken Lucas]

The deterministic runs of the global models tell only a small part of the story. It's the ensemble members that tell the whole story. Below is a plot of the GFS (green) and EC (purple) ensembles from 12Z. As you can see, it's almost unanimous that Joaquin won't have any significant impact on the U.S. One of the EC ensemble members says Jacksonville, FL, though.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ECens.JPG

Thanks for posting this!

[wxman57]

The graphic above does put things into better perspective as far as assessing the U.S. East Coast threat. It's amazing what the inclusion of additional upper-level data does for model consensus.

[RL3AO]

The graphic above does put things into better perspective as far as assessing the U.S. East Coast threat. It's amazing what the inclusion of additional upper-level data does for model consensus.

Do you think it was mostly the additional UL data or the fact it got so far south that the models finally caught on to what the ECMWF was doing? Its probably some of both, but how significant was the G-IV data?

[RL3AO]

Some amazing track errors for the verified 48 and 72 hour points.

First three NHC forecasts have averaged a 900km track error at 72 hours.

[CronkPSU]

Some amazing track errors for the verified 48 and 72 hour points.

First three NHC forecasts have averaged a 900km track error at 72 hours.

which is why I am still worried about this thing...if it was so far off in the past, why should we NOW be so confident of its future

[Weatherwatcher98]

Some amazing track errors for the verified 48 and 72 hour points.

First three NHC forecasts have averaged a 900km track error at 72 hours.

which is why I am still worried about this thing...if it was so far off in the past, why should we NOW be so confident of its future

HUGE TROUGH MOVING EAST!!!

[CronkPSU]

Some amazing track errors for the verified 48 and 72 hour points.

First three NHC forecasts have averaged a 900km track error at 72 hours.

which is why I am still worried about this thing...if it was so far off in the past, why should we NOW be so confident of its future

HUGE TROUGH MOVING EAST!!!

I mean ok...but everyone was real confident 4 days ago as well that this thing would have turned north already, 500 miles southwest later and we are still waiting, it seems funny for everyone to be so confident now and shout down those who are still just kind of watching to make sure....

[Weatherwatcher98]

Don't blame you CronkPSU kind of Ominous but phew!!

[CronkPSU]

Don't blame you CronkPSU kind of Ominous but phew!!

amen...i know i should trust the models and NHC and that we are going to dodge a major bullet here, just would like to see it stop moving towards us

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think Joaquin is just a reminder that we should never let our guard down even in a strong El Nino year.

[Blinhart]

Until this system starts moving NE at a high clip, I will not be relieved. This system is totally out of control and no models had it just a week or so ago, now it is a Cat 4 that might become a Cat 5. Systems this strong can do whatever it wants, we all know that, we can just hope the models are right. Feeling sorry for all those in the Bahamas and the Cruise ships around the Bahamas that are having rough seas.

[Alyono]

GFDL has just shifted to Cape Cod

[WPBWeather]

GFDL has just shifted to Cape Cod

Is that a left or right shift?