#2224 Postby smithtim » Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:20 pm
CrazyC83 wrote:Blinhart wrote:I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.
There is Recon out there, and good agreement on low-end Category 4. To have Cat 5, we'd need reliable SFMR over 135 and/or flight level winds at least into the 150s.
While I don't even want to think about all that let's not forget it's over very warm shallow ocean water and if I'm not mistaken aren't the fundamentals of energy transfer very different when shallow hot because theirs not that deeper cold??? Kinda like never ending high octane...
I'm no expert...I know fluid mechanics and theory but again I'm not pro met so maybe someone would be kind enough to chime in on that generalized ideas...
Thank you in advance
And of course thought prayers for people Bahamas...
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew