
ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re:
spiral wrote:http://i60.tinypic.com/331orys.jpg
Bath waters.
It's the depth of the warm water that matters, not the surface temp. If surface temp is 90F and 10 meters down it's 75F, a tropical cyclone not moving fast will quickly pull up the 75F water and die out.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Gatorcane- I've been watching that feature as well
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Outerbands of Joaquin could make it to the coast of SFL by tomorrow.
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Re: Re:
ozonepete wrote:spiral wrote:http://i60.tinypic.com/331orys.jpg
Bath waters.
It's the depth of the warm water that matters, not the surface temp. If surface temp is 90F and 10 meters down it's 75F, a tropical cyclone not moving fast will quickly pull up the 75F water and die out.
Yeap, especially in around the islands where there areas where the waters are shallow thus the waters cool down quicker even before upwelling starts taking place.
Last edited by NDG on Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at this WV loop, what is that spin I see directly NE of Joaquin in the orange area heading SW?
Is that a small Upper-Level low that has developed as I don't see where the models are showing it.
Could this feature have any impact on Joaquin and future path?
http://i.imgur.com/ec9W6cW.gif
That is a small upper-level low you're seeing. I believe it's the feature that the models have had interacting with Joaquin by weakening the western edge of the ridge that's blocking Joaquin from moving north then northeast. It's why the models shifted to the east today. Of course, the 18z GFS ensembles still had a number of east coast hits, more than 12z. The threat isn't over for the east coast yet.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Outerbands of Joaquin could make it to the coast of SFL by tomorrow.
their on radar of miami small rain band east of miami
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000
URNT15 KNHC 020149
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 40 20151002
014030 2135N 07307W 6969 03107 0010 +103 +095 211048 049 041 006 03
014100 2133N 07304W 6967 03119 0012 +100 +082 210047 048 /// /// 05
014130 2134N 07302W 6970 03114 0026 +084 +030 205047 048 /// /// 03
014200 2135N 07302W 6963 03119 0026 +081 +029 203044 046 /// /// 03
014230 2137N 07303W 6968 03111 0017 +087 +029 211046 046 040 008 00
014300 2140N 07303W 6963 03114 0013 +087 +036 212050 050 040 008 03
014330 2142N 07303W 6970 03107 0027 +076 +041 212053 053 040 008 00
014400 2144N 07303W 6964 03112 0014 +085 +047 210053 054 042 009 00
014430 2146N 07303W 6975 03099 0029 +071 +050 208054 056 045 007 00
014500 2148N 07303W 6969 03105 0013 +083 +050 221056 058 045 005 03
014530 2150N 07303W 6965 03108 0014 +082 +045 221055 056 047 006 00
014600 2152N 07303W 6972 03099 0021 +076 +049 221055 056 048 007 03
014630 2154N 07303W 6961 03112 0012 +081 +051 215048 052 047 007 03
014700 2157N 07303W 6963 03109 0000 +090 +054 209045 047 049 005 00
014730 2159N 07303W 6963 03107 0002 +089 +054 208043 045 051 005 03
014800 2201N 07303W 6969 03101 9991 +098 +051 203046 048 047 005 03
014830 2203N 07303W 6970 03094 0002 +087 +053 200049 052 048 005 00
014900 2205N 07303W 6962 03105 0002 +084 +058 202052 056 048 005 03
014930 2207N 07303W 6967 03095 0000 +085 +053 208048 051 048 006 00
015000 2209N 07303W 6963 03101 0004 +081 +056 212039 048 049 009 03
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 020149
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 40 20151002
014030 2135N 07307W 6969 03107 0010 +103 +095 211048 049 041 006 03
014100 2133N 07304W 6967 03119 0012 +100 +082 210047 048 /// /// 05
014130 2134N 07302W 6970 03114 0026 +084 +030 205047 048 /// /// 03
014200 2135N 07302W 6963 03119 0026 +081 +029 203044 046 /// /// 03
014230 2137N 07303W 6968 03111 0017 +087 +029 211046 046 040 008 00
014300 2140N 07303W 6963 03114 0013 +087 +036 212050 050 040 008 03
014330 2142N 07303W 6970 03107 0027 +076 +041 212053 053 040 008 00
014400 2144N 07303W 6964 03112 0014 +085 +047 210053 054 042 009 00
014430 2146N 07303W 6975 03099 0029 +071 +050 208054 056 045 007 00
014500 2148N 07303W 6969 03105 0013 +083 +050 221056 058 045 005 03
014530 2150N 07303W 6965 03108 0014 +082 +045 221055 056 047 006 00
014600 2152N 07303W 6972 03099 0021 +076 +049 221055 056 048 007 03
014630 2154N 07303W 6961 03112 0012 +081 +051 215048 052 047 007 03
014700 2157N 07303W 6963 03109 0000 +090 +054 209045 047 049 005 00
014730 2159N 07303W 6963 03107 0002 +089 +054 208043 045 051 005 03
014800 2201N 07303W 6969 03101 9991 +098 +051 203046 048 047 005 03
014830 2203N 07303W 6970 03094 0002 +087 +053 200049 052 048 005 00
014900 2205N 07303W 6962 03105 0002 +084 +058 202052 056 048 005 03
014930 2207N 07303W 6967 03095 0000 +085 +053 208048 051 048 006 00
015000 2209N 07303W 6963 03101 0004 +081 +056 212039 048 049 009 03
$$
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Re: Re:
ozonepete wrote:spiral wrote:http://i60.tinypic.com/331orys.jpg
Bath waters.
It's the depth of the warm water that matters, not the surface temp. If surface temp is 90F and 10 meters down it's 75F, a tropical cyclone not moving fast will quickly pull up the 75F water and die out.
Is that true even for shallow water (i.e., if the water is 50 m deep and is >26C for all 50m is that different from the water being 500 m deep with a 50m 26C level)?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Note that we didn't really expect Joaquin to move much today. It should be heading northward by around sunrise tomorrow, though.
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URNT15 KNHC 020159
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 41 20151002
015030 2211N 07303W 6958 03104 9998 +084 +053 211049 057 050 008 03
015100 2214N 07303W 6970 03095 9983 +099 +055 210057 059 053 005 03
015130 2216N 07303W 6966 03100 9977 +105 +053 209051 055 053 004 03
015200 2218N 07303W 6970 03095 9976 +106 +049 209048 050 058 003 00
015230 2220N 07303W 6967 03086 9970 +102 +052 207046 047 125 016 03
015300 2222N 07303W 6969 03074 9965 +098 +053 201047 048 /// /// 03
015330 2224N 07303W 6965 03075 9964 +097 +051 197051 053 /// /// 03
015400 2227N 07303W 6967 03094 9987 +091 +049 195049 053 /// /// 03
015430 2229N 07303W 6967 03094 9985 +096 +047 199050 054 046 008 03
015500 2231N 07303W 6970 03087 9979 +099 +054 195052 053 047 006 03
015530 2233N 07303W 6968 03095 9988 +095 +052 198051 053 049 007 00
015600 2235N 07303W 6965 03100 9979 +103 +042 189044 048 050 008 03
015630 2237N 07303W 6967 03100 9984 +100 +040 187046 048 050 007 00
015700 2240N 07303W 6965 03101 9986 +098 +046 182044 047 053 007 00
015730 2242N 07303W 6966 03099 9978 +105 +042 178049 050 054 007 03
015800 2244N 07303W 6971 03092 9973 +107 +036 175053 054 056 007 00
015830 2246N 07303W 6968 03092 9960 +116 +036 173054 056 058 007 00
015900 2248N 07303W 6965 03097 9964 +112 +042 172057 059 057 008 00
015930 2251N 07303W 6972 03084 9956 +117 +042 172057 058 057 010 03
020000 2253N 07303W 6967 03090 9947 +123 +035 173058 060 057 010 03
$$
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Ignore the 125 kt SFMR, this is well outside the core.
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 41 20151002
015030 2211N 07303W 6958 03104 9998 +084 +053 211049 057 050 008 03
015100 2214N 07303W 6970 03095 9983 +099 +055 210057 059 053 005 03
015130 2216N 07303W 6966 03100 9977 +105 +053 209051 055 053 004 03
015200 2218N 07303W 6970 03095 9976 +106 +049 209048 050 058 003 00
015230 2220N 07303W 6967 03086 9970 +102 +052 207046 047 125 016 03
015300 2222N 07303W 6969 03074 9965 +098 +053 201047 048 /// /// 03
015330 2224N 07303W 6965 03075 9964 +097 +051 197051 053 /// /// 03
015400 2227N 07303W 6967 03094 9987 +091 +049 195049 053 /// /// 03
015430 2229N 07303W 6967 03094 9985 +096 +047 199050 054 046 008 03
015500 2231N 07303W 6970 03087 9979 +099 +054 195052 053 047 006 03
015530 2233N 07303W 6968 03095 9988 +095 +052 198051 053 049 007 00
015600 2235N 07303W 6965 03100 9979 +103 +042 189044 048 050 008 03
015630 2237N 07303W 6967 03100 9984 +100 +040 187046 048 050 007 00
015700 2240N 07303W 6965 03101 9986 +098 +046 182044 047 053 007 00
015730 2242N 07303W 6966 03099 9978 +105 +042 178049 050 054 007 03
015800 2244N 07303W 6971 03092 9973 +107 +036 175053 054 056 007 00
015830 2246N 07303W 6968 03092 9960 +116 +036 173054 056 058 007 00
015900 2248N 07303W 6965 03097 9964 +112 +042 172057 059 057 008 00
015930 2251N 07303W 6972 03084 9956 +117 +042 172057 058 057 010 03
020000 2253N 07303W 6967 03090 9947 +123 +035 173058 060 057 010 03
$$
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Ignore the 125 kt SFMR, this is well outside the core.
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Probably one of my most extensive posts: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/10/01/ca ... end-ahead/
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Outerbands of Joaquin could make it to the coast of SFL by tomorrow.
I don't see much on radar.. I would be surprised if any of the outer squalls actually make it to the Florida coast.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Bocadude85 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Outerbands of Joaquin could make it to the coast of SFL by tomorrow.
I don't see much on radar.. I would be surprised if any of the outer squalls actually make it to the Florida coast.
their is line rain headind west here radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no look at Long Range Base Reflectivity
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Outerbands of Joaquin could make it to the coast of SFL by tomorrow.
I don't see much on radar.. I would be surprised if any of the outer squalls actually make it to the Florida coast.
their is line rain headind west here radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no look at Long Range Base Reflectivity
The line of showers over Grand Bahama has been there all day, however I do see a few squalls on the long range radar approaching Andros and Nassau.
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URNT15 KNHC 020209
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 42 20151002
020030 2255N 07303W 6972 03083 9957 +113 +039 174053 055 058 008 00
020100 2258N 07303W 6959 03095 9949 +116 +038 151059 067 063 008 03
020130 2300N 07303W 6966 03086 9944 +118 +036 146057 063 062 009 00
020200 2302N 07303W 6961 03087 9933 +125 +033 149064 066 061 007 03
020230 2304N 07303W 6969 03079 9982 +086 +044 159051 063 052 004 03
020300 2306N 07303W 6958 03091 9972 +093 +038 151050 051 044 003 00
020330 2309N 07303W 6965 03080 9968 +095 +028 161057 060 037 001 00
020400 2311N 07303W 6975 03064 9979 +083 +037 167061 063 037 003 00
020430 2313N 07303W 6968 03074 9974 +089 +033 169058 060 036 003 03
020500 2315N 07303W 6966 03080 9970 +097 +029 164057 058 039 002 03
020530 2318N 07303W 6966 03086 9968 +100 +025 170057 060 037 002 00
020600 2320N 07303W 6967 03080 9970 +098 +035 173061 062 038 001 00
020630 2322N 07303W 6974 03071 9972 +095 +034 174060 062 038 001 03
020700 2324N 07303W 6976 03069 9975 +093 +038 175054 058 039 003 00
020730 2327N 07303W 6956 03097 9970 +098 +029 170054 055 040 001 03
020800 2329N 07303W 6975 03076 9972 +099 +032 165056 057 038 002 00
020830 2331N 07303W 6963 03091 9964 +106 +029 160059 059 036 002 03
020900 2333N 07303W 6967 03092 9957 +112 +030 163057 060 038 001 00
020930 2336N 07303W 6961 03096 9963 +110 +021 160058 059 037 002 03
021000 2338N 07303W 6972 03085 9971 +105 +022 158055 058 036 001 03
$$
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AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 42 20151002
020030 2255N 07303W 6972 03083 9957 +113 +039 174053 055 058 008 00
020100 2258N 07303W 6959 03095 9949 +116 +038 151059 067 063 008 03
020130 2300N 07303W 6966 03086 9944 +118 +036 146057 063 062 009 00
020200 2302N 07303W 6961 03087 9933 +125 +033 149064 066 061 007 03
020230 2304N 07303W 6969 03079 9982 +086 +044 159051 063 052 004 03
020300 2306N 07303W 6958 03091 9972 +093 +038 151050 051 044 003 00
020330 2309N 07303W 6965 03080 9968 +095 +028 161057 060 037 001 00
020400 2311N 07303W 6975 03064 9979 +083 +037 167061 063 037 003 00
020430 2313N 07303W 6968 03074 9974 +089 +033 169058 060 036 003 03
020500 2315N 07303W 6966 03080 9970 +097 +029 164057 058 039 002 03
020530 2318N 07303W 6966 03086 9968 +100 +025 170057 060 037 002 00
020600 2320N 07303W 6967 03080 9970 +098 +035 173061 062 038 001 00
020630 2322N 07303W 6974 03071 9972 +095 +034 174060 062 038 001 03
020700 2324N 07303W 6976 03069 9975 +093 +038 175054 058 039 003 00
020730 2327N 07303W 6956 03097 9970 +098 +029 170054 055 040 001 03
020800 2329N 07303W 6975 03076 9972 +099 +032 165056 057 038 002 00
020830 2331N 07303W 6963 03091 9964 +106 +029 160059 059 036 002 03
020900 2333N 07303W 6967 03092 9957 +112 +030 163057 060 038 001 00
020930 2336N 07303W 6961 03096 9963 +110 +021 160058 059 037 002 03
021000 2338N 07303W 6972 03085 9971 +105 +022 158055 058 036 001 03
$$
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Re:
JonathanBelles wrote:Probably one of my most extensive posts: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/10/01/ca ... end-ahead/
Excellent and detailed post.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:GlennOBX wrote:Excuse the simple question, but with the talk about whether or not this gets west of 75°W and whether the models had predicted that it would, does anything change regarding the consensus forecast if Joaquin does get past 75° W?
Thanks
If Joaquin gets further past 75 W there is a better chance it will not turn north as soon and the Midwestern trough will catch it and keep it closer to the coast. In that case the models will shift west again.
Ozone, in your opinion, is this something you think may happen? Or not likely?
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