ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[tgenius]

Due to the amount of time it's been impacting the Bahamas, is it possible that Joaquin will be a retired name?

[rickybobby]

11 pm update. Winds 130 and moving west at 3 mph.

[CrazyC83]

Due to the amount of time it's been impacting the Bahamas, is it possible that Joaquin will be a retired name?

Possibly, but not sure their record of retirement cases and no other country may have a legitimate case. Usually they are one of many in retiring names.

[ozonepete]

Joaquin is morphing into a strange shape, looks like the top of the storm is getting flattened while the west side is expanding out.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yeah that's easy to see now. That is causing bad symmetry which always causes weakening.

[floridasun78]

so turn happening by moving west at 11pm

[johngaltfla]

11 pm update. Winds 130 and moving west at 3 mph.

The turn appears to have begun. Now it is a matter of how far west it goes before moving to NW, then NNW, etc.

[gatorcane]

Up and out, what a difference 24 hours makes:

[ozonepete]

NHC discussion says no EWR - that's really interesting. The IR satellite images seemed to support it but they say microwave doesn't and they have a lot more data than we do. It doesn't really matter since the bottom line is that whatever the eye has been doing is not observable: cirrus has been obscuring it and there are not enough microwave sat images to be sure.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020249
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 46 20151002
024030 2334N 07344W 6958 03057 9914 +107 +043 153067 069 039 002 00
024100 2333N 07345W 6964 03049 9916 +105 +040 154065 066 038 001 00
024130 2332N 07346W 6961 03049 9908 +109 +038 154064 065 037 001 00
024200 2331N 07347W 6969 03038 9891 +124 +035 146062 065 042 001 00
024230 2329N 07348W 6974 03029 9868 +143 +021 129064 068 060 001 00
024300 2328N 07350W 6972 03027 9858 +148 +013 131061 064 062 001 00
024330 2327N 07352W 6969 03021 9852 +147 +019 134060 065 061 001 00
024400 2326N 07354W 6948 03042 9846 +145 +024 132061 067 061 001 00
024430 2325N 07355W 6989 02986 9830 +152 +021 112068 072 063 004 00
024500 2324N 07357W 6955 03037 9860 +129 +038 124063 071 063 004 03
024530 2323N 07359W 6970 03008 9854 +126 +046 136071 074 061 004 00
024600 2322N 07400W 6962 03004 9856 +114 +053 139071 074 061 004 03
024630 2321N 07401W 6963 02994 9861 +099 +062 143076 080 059 005 03
024700 2320N 07402W 6959 02988 9846 +105 +055 148080 080 060 003 03
024730 2319N 07404W 6969 02966 9839 +100 +064 145080 085 061 007 03
024800 2318N 07405W 6966 02966 9828 +104 +061 148080 083 062 004 00
024830 2316N 07406W 6963 02960 9819 +102 +066 147081 083 062 003 00
024900 2315N 07407W 6970 02945 9804 +106 +060 148090 093 065 002 00
024930 2314N 07408W 6968 02933 9788 +109 +063 150095 096 066 001 00
025000 2313N 07409W 6967 02923 9790 +096 +066 150094 097 069 005 00
$$
;

[NDG]

11 pm update. Winds 130 and moving west at 3 mph.

The turn appears to have begun. Now it is a matter of how far west it goes before moving to NW, then NNW, etc.

When a system slows down to a crawl is usually when a turn in heading is in the near future, if it reaches 75W will be as far west it will go.

[1900hurricane]

Barring upwelling, I think there's a good chance that Joaquin could have a second peak tomorrow at a higher intensity than today's. As of right now the opening of the poleward outflow channel looks like it will be very well timed with the end of eyewall replacement. Joaquin is still firing deep convection with a ring of cold medium grey on the BD curve, so if upwelling is to affect it, it hasn't started yet.

*EDIT: Huh, NHC mentions no eyewall replacement.

[txwatcher91]

NHC discussion says no EWR - that's really interesting. The IR satellite images seemed to support it but they say microwave doesn't and they have a lot more data than we do. It doesn't really matter since the bottom line is that whatever the eye has been doing is not observable: cirrus has been obscuring it and there are not enough microwave sat images to be sure.

I'm thinking it could be due to upwelling from moving so slow in shallow waters... It just doesn't have the juice needed to maintain a high cat 4 level and is weakening some?

[p1nheadlarry]

Due to the amount of time it's been impacting the Bahamas, is it possible that Joaquin will be a retired name?

Possibly, but not sure their record of retirement cases and no other country may have a legitimate case. Usually they are one of many in retiring names.

We'll have to see the damage Joaquin has left behind and hear from the Bahamas, I saw pictures of some bad flooding. I've never been to the Bahamas, but from what I know the most populated areas are to the north and west (Nassau, Freeport).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Still 5pm track. (8pm position) I will do 11pm in next image.

[deltadog03]

Joaquin is morphing into a strange shape, looks like the top of the storm is getting flattened while the west side is expanding out.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

If I am not mistaken, the old school rule *one of them* is the clouds will lead the way were the storm is wanting to go...

[1900hurricane]

Still very deep convection, especially by Atlantic standards.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With 11pm track. 10pm water vapor image from SSEC.

[ozonepete]

Barring upwelling, I think there's a good chance that Joaquin could have a second peak tomorrow at a higher intensity than today's. As of right now the opening of the poleward outflow channel looks like it will be very well timed with the end of eyewall replacement. Joaquin is still firing deep convection with a ring of cold medium grey on the BD curve, so if upwelling is to affect it, it hasn't started yet.

So the bottom line is it has to do the northward turn and pick up speed pretty soon or for sure upwelling of colder water will weaken it; then it would have to start its final intensification from a lower strength level. Personally I can't see cat 5 at all. The same 200-300 mb jet that will enhance upper level outflow tomorrow will aid in accelerating it northward and force it to elongate from north to south and this will kill the perfect symmetry needed for a cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020259
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 47 20151002
025030 2312N 07410W 6970 02903 9783 +090 +071 151099 102 069 007 00
025100 2312N 07411W 6966 02894 9759 +096 +071 147097 103 070 007 00
025130 2311N 07413W 6972 02878 9744 +096 +067 146101 102 074 009 00
025200 2310N 07414W 6967 02859 9724 +094 +071 147106 107 080 014 00
025230 2309N 07415W 6958 02856 9693 +101 +080 146103 106 083 014 00
025300 2308N 07416W 6973 02807 9653 +115 +088 142106 109 084 008 00
025330 2307N 07417W 6974 02788 9609 +130 +082 141109 112 083 010 00
025400 2306N 07419W 6943 02797 9569 +143 +085 139114 117 087 006 00
025430 2305N 07420W 6967 02742 9506 +180 +074 135112 116 089 003 00
025500 2304N 07422W 6976 02706 9480 +177 +083 132106 113 093 004 00
025530 2303N 07423W 6967 02679 9456 +166 +094 130083 097 086 003 03
025600 2301N 07424W 6967 02662 9439 +159 +096 134071 075 062 002 03
025630 2300N 07425W 6960 02645 9428 +147 +093 135061 069 051 001 00
025700 2259N 07426W 6975 02613 9410 +150 +086 135052 058 038 002 00
025730 2257N 07428W 6975 02599 9394 +151 +075 135042 048 033 001 00
025800 2256N 07429W 6965 02597 9378 +155 +071 133031 036 017 002 03
025830 2254N 07430W 6970 02585 9369 +157 +076 132023 028 010 001 03
025900 2253N 07431W 6958 02601 9357 +170 +057 131010 021 010 001 00
025930 2252N 07432W 6971 02582 9366 +156 +081 283003 007 014 001 00
030000 2250N 07433W 6972 02580 9361 +165 +074 276013 018 015 001 00
$$
;

117 kt FL, 93 kt SFMR in NE quad. Pressure 936mb.