ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

Barring upwelling, I think there's a good chance that Joaquin could have a second peak tomorrow at a higher intensity than today's. As of right now the opening of the poleward outflow channel looks like it will be very well timed with the end of eyewall replacement. Joaquin is still firing deep convection with a ring of cold medium grey on the BD curve, so if upwelling is to affect it, it hasn't started yet.

*EDIT: Huh, NHC mentions no eyewall replacement.

I guess with shallower waters those warm temperatures start to decrease with not just upwelling but the storm itself taking up that energy. Might be making that turn soon or tomorrow, if it heads away from the Bahamas it could find more fuel before ultimately accelerating and weakening (likely between Bermuda and the Maritimes, even if we can't officially rule out a closer path to the US. If it turns now I think the ECMWF solution that many other models have caught up with will be the right).

Gotta appreciate how the NHC handles changes in tracks. Modest changes until the consensus becomes more confident for it to require a shift.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From earlier G-IV mission:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[AutoPenalti]

So tomorrow I should expect NW or N, correct?

[terstorm1012]

So tomorrow I should expect NW or N, correct?

slowly, but yes.

[NDG]

So tomorrow I should expect NW or N, correct?

Yes, a very slow track towards the north before picking up more speed on Saturday and a more NE heading.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall break?

[AutoPenalti]

Eyewall break?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/A ... W.94pc.jpg

It looks like it's weakening.

[p1nheadlarry]

Eyewall break?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/A ... W.94pc.jpg

It looks like it's weakening.

The Bahamas could use a break...still dangerous however

[emeraldislenc]

The late John Hope said many times you could follow the clouds to see which way it would probably go

[1900hurricane]

I'm interested to see the the next VDM. Microwave seems to indicate the eyewall might have opened to the NE.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[ozonepete]

Eyewall break?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/A ... W.94pc.jpg

For sure. Open to the northeast, open a lot. That's a pretty messy core and surely poor symmetry. I'm a little surprised it's that bad but the symmetry failure should have tipped us off.

[hurrtracker79]

How would a weaker storm affect the track with the setup we are looking at?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020309
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 48 20151002
030030 2248N 07434W 6966 02596 9371 +162 +076 280027 034 019 003 03
030100 2247N 07435W 6976 02593 9389 +154 +083 282045 052 032 003 03
030130 2245N 07436W 6963 02630 9410 +151 +083 286062 065 036 003 03
030200 2245N 07437W 6964 02636 9431 +139 +091 289064 066 065 006 00
030230 2244N 07438W 6974 02639 9447 +136 +097 294068 075 096 002 00
030300 2243N 07439W 6971 02659 9471 +133 +083 293081 082 112 002 00
030330 2242N 07440W 6962 02694 9506 +121 +091 300093 100 110 004 00
030400 2241N 07442W 6972 02708 9549 +104 +088 302106 110 115 018 00
030430 2240N 07443W 6967 02733 9576 +099 +085 303108 111 113 030 00
030500 2239N 07444W 6959 02767 9605 +097 +090 302105 106 119 041 00
030530 2238N 07445W 6978 02766 9637 +091 +085 300112 116 109 051 00
030600 2237N 07446W 6950 02815 9658 +087 +082 305110 114 093 058 03
030630 2236N 07447W 6986 02790 9674 +095 +079 306104 111 074 071 03
030700 2235N 07448W 6952 02852 9695 +091 +084 308105 107 071 050 03
030730 2234N 07449W 6974 02841 9723 +085 +079 306110 112 080 037 03
030800 2233N 07450W 6974 02858 9749 +076 +072 301114 116 080 032 03
030830 2233N 07451W 6971 02877 9771 +072 +065 303112 114 080 032 03
030900 2232N 07452W 6961 02904 9785 +075 +069 303107 109 068 037 03
030930 2231N 07453W 6966 02909 9812 +066 +062 302110 111 /// /// 03
031000 2230N 07454W 6972 02918 9829 +064 +053 300109 110 069 017 03
$$
;

SFMR data may be suspect.

[Steve]

Boy that RBTOP really looks like it's just blasting some of those islands. Last perimeter of a center of circulation I was in was TS Bill in 2003. I've been near and affected by numerous hurricanes, tropical storms since, but that was the last circulation wall that I watched overhead. Clouds were screaming by overhead, and the sustained winds were maybe upper 40s where I was at. And it lasted a couple of minutes. And fwiw, I've experienced way stronger winds than that since and even spent the better part of a couple of days above TS strenght in Ike down the Bayou and Isaac in Metairie . But there is something about being under an edge of circulation, eyewall or even inner band. You can imagine 60, 70, 80, 90 mph sustained lasting a day or more? Hearts out to all being affected in the Bahamian Kingdom.

After the Bahamas, the next curiosity for me is what impacts Joaquin has in the setup for South Carolina. That inflow will involve surges of moisture from different sources converging across the area. Some precipitation models hint at historic potential. A couple of models early in the week stretched out some of Joaquin's upper energy toward the convergence with the cutoff low. That was generally centered around SC and GA. Heaviest rainfall was most of the coast, then sort of centered along the nc/sc border. 18z looked like the heaviest totals shifted a little south and west and off the coast. We will see what happens with Joaquin, but it should have some contribution to a potential disaster in South Carolina. 00z model precipitation trends should be interesting. Also, the MIMIC loop shows Joaquin and the approaching trough pretty well.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 020315
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 02/02:59:30Z
B. 22 deg 52 min N
074 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 93 kt
E. 041 deg 15 nm
F. 139 deg 117 kt
G. 043 deg 18 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 13 C / 3042 m
J. 18 C / 3052 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 250 / 12 NM 23:06:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 220 / 8 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 042 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 3:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:59:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°52'N 74°32'W (22.8667N 74.5333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,547m (8,356ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139° at 117kts (From the SE at ~ 134.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 123kts (~ 141.5mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (250°) from the flight level center at 23:06:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 8kts (From the SW at 9mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center

[bahamaswx]

Recon reports eyewall open N.

[Chris_in_Tampa]