ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020349
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 52 20151002
034030 2128N 07351W 6966 03089 9994 +082 +050 255049 050 043 008 03
034100 2127N 07350W 6970 03084 0000 +077 +056 256049 052 041 009 00
034130 2125N 07349W 6970 03095 0003 +078 +055 256055 058 039 009 03
034200 2124N 07347W 6968 03093 0005 +080 +051 251060 062 037 009 00
034230 2123N 07346W 6966 03099 0003 +083 +053 252057 058 036 009 00
034300 2121N 07344W 6966 03102 0002 +085 +047 250056 057 035 007 03
034330 2120N 07342W 6970 03097 0004 +085 +042 245057 057 038 006 00
034400 2119N 07340W 6965 03105 0014 +078 +042 247058 059 036 008 03
034430 2118N 07338W 6969 03099 0010 +080 +044 249058 059 034 009 00
034500 2118N 07336W 6967 03102 0005 +086 +049 253058 058 033 008 00
034530 2117N 07334W 6968 03101 0006 +087 +047 254055 058 030 007 00
034600 2116N 07332W 6967 03107 0011 +085 +048 254057 058 030 006 00
034630 2115N 07330W 6968 03106 0018 +080 +051 249058 059 027 007 00
034700 2114N 07328W 6967 03110 0017 +081 +047 248060 062 026 008 00
034730 2113N 07326W 6969 03103 0016 +081 +053 245061 063 031 006 00
034800 2112N 07324W 6967 03109 0021 +072 +051 238058 060 046 002 03
034830 2112N 07322W 6967 03112 0030 +067 +049 233057 058 /// /// 03
034900 2112N 07320W 6964 03116 0028 +076 +047 233057 058 028 006 00
034930 2112N 07318W 6969 03110 0018 +088 +043 231052 056 027 006 00
035000 2112N 07316W 6966 03119 0015 +092 +042 229050 051 029 005 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[windnrain]

GFS has this shifted west guys, just a heads up

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[AutoPenalti]

Yeah, that ridge isn't weakening anytime soon..kinda weird to see it squishing it.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020359
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 53 20151002
035030 2111N 07313W 6966 03120 0010 +098 +032 225048 050 027 006 00
035100 2112N 07311W 6966 03124 0020 +091 +031 221048 050 024 007 03
035130 2112N 07309W 6969 03121 0019 +093 +032 219047 048 039 004 00
035200 2114N 07307W 6970 03101 0012 +092 +031 218046 047 123 013 03
035230 2115N 07305W 6967 03113 0001 +095 +029 216043 045 /// /// 03
035300 2116N 07304W 6967 03095 0001 +091 +029 215042 044 /// /// 03
035330 2117N 07302W 6968 03110 0007 +095 +028 217043 044 /// /// 03
035400 2118N 07300W 6966 03121 0015 +097 +025 213042 044 036 003 03
035430 2119N 07258W 6967 03125 0013 +100 +026 215042 043 035 007 00
035500 2120N 07256W 6969 03125 0018 +098 +029 219042 044 036 006 03
035530 2121N 07254W 6969 03127 0016 +101 +028 215039 040 038 005 00
035600 2122N 07252W 6968 03122 0013 +100 +029 215041 041 037 004 03
035630 2123N 07250W 6966 03129 0019 +099 +024 214040 041 038 004 03
035700 2125N 07249W 6969 03128 0019 +100 +028 210038 040 /// /// 03
035730 2127N 07249W 6965 03133 0022 +100 +030 210037 038 /// /// 03
035800 2127N 07251W 6969 03122 0018 +098 +025 212036 037 /// /// 03
035830 2127N 07252W 6963 03126 0018 +097 +027 213037 037 036 004 03
035900 2127N 07254W 6966 03126 0011 +101 +027 214037 038 036 004 03
035930 2128N 07256W 6966 03122 0013 +098 +025 211039 041 045 001 03
040000 2128N 07257W 6970 03115 0014 +096 +024 215044 047 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[emeraldislenc]

The model that just came out has shifted to the west. Go to the model section

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[windnrain]

Yeah, that ridge isn't weakening anytime soon..kinda weird to see it squishing it.

I think it may have pumped the ridge

[Ptarmigan]

Maybe due to how the sea breeze-fueled t-storms can help to cool off once they've passed, we get them up here in the summer sometimes. Unless they're (s)west to (n)east moving storms that often are accompanied by a drier air mass behind it, the sea breeze types seem more humid (makes sense) but the temp does change.

It's a catch-22 for this hurricane: its slow movement might be at least partially why it appears to be weakening, but a slow moving hurricane over populated areas is never a good thing.

The heavy rain that leads to massive flooding. Mitch, Wilma, Flora, and Georges took that path.

[N2FSU]

Yep, significant shift west on 0Z GFS.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[emeraldislenc]

Here we go again!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020410
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 54 20151002
040030 2129N 07259W 6967 03122 0020 +090 +022 216047 048 /// /// 03
040100 2129N 07301W 6967 03122 0026 +091 +019 217047 047 /// /// 03
040130 2130N 07302W 6966 03125 0022 +091 +028 222045 047 /// /// 03
040200 2130N 07304W 6969 03109 0019 +090 +031 223041 045 /// /// 03
040230 2131N 07305W 6966 03116 0015 +091 +033 215040 041 035 006 00
040300 2132N 07307W 6969 03112 0014 +090 +034 212039 040 033 008 00
040330 2132N 07309W 6962 03117 0017 +087 +039 218038 040 032 008 03
040400 2133N 07310W 6968 03113 0024 +081 +048 223039 041 031 009 03
040430 2134N 07312W 6968 03109 0020 +079 +055 220038 040 035 009 00
040500 2135N 07313W 6961 03115 0013 +084 +052 215036 038 034 008 03
040530 2136N 07314W 6968 03104 0010 +085 +049 216037 038 034 005 03
040600 2138N 07316W 6967 03106 0006 +089 +048 216039 039 035 005 03
040630 2139N 07317W 6969 03102 0010 +085 +043 214042 043 033 007 00
040700 2140N 07318W 6973 03098 0021 +075 +047 222048 050 034 009 00
040730 2141N 07320W 6961 03109 0015 +077 +049 226047 048 035 007 03
040800 2143N 07321W 6970 03097 0018 +073 +050 233047 049 037 009 00
040830 2144N 07322W 6970 03094 0012 +075 +050 238043 050 039 008 00
040900 2145N 07323W 6965 03095 0010 +074 +051 245038 041 039 007 03
040930 2146N 07325W 6964 03096 0004 +078 +051 243040 041 040 006 03
041000 2147N 07326W 6969 03087 9999 +080 +050 238045 046 039 005 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view:

[emeraldislenc]

If it keeps trending west it would be a big wake up call all the local media has been showing the 11 pm cone and downplaying the possibility of a land fall and saying it will be way off the coast. We need to keep our guard up!

[Sanibel]

Effectively stationary for the last 6 hours in my opinion.


Crooked Island has been in category 3 eyewall for 12 hours now.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Happy Pelican]

GFS has this shifted west guys, just a heads up

Oh man. When is the next Euro out?