ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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SunnyThoughts
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#1201 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:59 pm

west shift a bit concerning isn't it? I mean hopefully it doesn't shift even more west in the coming runs.
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NDG
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#1202 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:59 pm

Yeah, left shift on the GFS, it looks like it wants to send it towards southern New England on this run.
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windnrain
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#1203 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:59 pm

Image

WAY west guys
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Re: Re:

#1204 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:59 pm

green eyed girl wrote:
Alyono wrote:big left shift at 66 hours


What's causing the west shift?


Weaker Ida and also I would say more trough interaction pulls it some.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1205 Postby N2FSU » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:01 pm

+90hr

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#1206 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:02 pm

Never mind, the GFS just show it coming closer to New England but no landfall there.
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#1207 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:02 pm

Just when we thought everybody was outta the woods, argggg. Everybody stay vigilant, it would seem this is far from over. Such fluid dynamics, we may not know for sure until tomorrow at this time, if it has turned north by then that is.


Not a forecast...please stay tuned to NHC for official statements.
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#1208 Postby ninel conde » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:02 pm

not shocked at the shift with the overall pattern. still wont hit va/nc, but tides sunday will be at major flood stage.
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#1209 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:02 pm

I can promise a number of the ensemble will be landfalling
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#1210 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:03 pm

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Close to Boston
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Re:

#1211 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:04 pm

windnrain wrote:I can promise a number of the ensemble will be landfalling


I have no doubt about that whatsoever.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1212 Postby N2FSU » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:06 pm

+99hr

Huge shift west

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#1213 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:06 pm

So we need to watch Ida...and the trough the next 24 hours or so...in order to see what happens is what I'm gathering from this run.




Please stay tuned to NHC for official information.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1214 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:07 pm

With the NAM and GFS shift, landfall is not off the table
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1215 Postby N2FSU » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:10 pm

Of course now the big question...does the Euro start trending back west or stick to it's guns?
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#1216 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:10 pm

I have a feeling an interesting couple of days are upcoming, at the very least model wise.
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#1217 Postby ninel conde » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:12 pm

It would be bad for JB if Both his landfall forecast and wide right forecast busted. this is so close to being caught and pulled into the coast as a super hybrid, though it will still stay offshore.
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SunnyThoughts
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#1218 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:13 pm

What is concerning is the fact that new information is continually being pumped into these models, from the G-4 flights. So they will probably continue to change ( one way or another) the next day or so, at least until the storm starts moving North...imo.


Not a forecast, Stay tuned to NHC for official information.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1219 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:14 pm

Could be a long couple of days.
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Re:

#1220 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:14 pm

ninel conde wrote:It would be bad for JB if Both his landfall forecast and wide right forecast busted. this is so close to being caught and pulled into the coast as a super hybrid, though it will still stay offshore.


Poor JB, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time he's ended up with major egg on his face. As I recall at one point for ten straight years he claimed New England was doomed in his seasonal forecasts, yet nothing happened.
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