ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[chaser1]

Dead stationary.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020419
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 55 20151002
041030 2148N 07327W 6967 03091 9996 +080 +055 227052 056 039 006 03
041100 2150N 07328W 6971 03084 0000 +075 +055 224055 057 040 008 00
041130 2151N 07330W 6970 03083 9999 +076 +057 232053 056 041 008 03
041200 2152N 07331W 6970 03082 0000 +072 +055 239053 055 043 008 03
041230 2153N 07332W 6967 03079 9984 +083 +036 240052 054 043 004 03
041300 2154N 07333W 6975 03066 9978 +086 +042 243058 060 044 004 03
041330 2155N 07334W 6965 03078 9974 +085 +048 242060 063 044 005 00
041400 2156N 07336W 6961 03079 9979 +079 +056 240058 062 043 007 03
041430 2157N 07337W 6974 03065 9964 +090 +052 242060 064 045 006 03
041500 2159N 07338W 6967 03066 9956 +095 +039 240062 064 045 005 03
041530 2200N 07339W 6946 03091 9962 +087 +055 226059 063 038 008 03
041600 2201N 07340W 6985 03047 9963 +090 +045 231056 058 043 003 00
041630 2202N 07342W 6971 03060 9954 +094 +038 234058 058 046 002 00
041700 2203N 07343W 6963 03066 9958 +087 +048 234062 066 046 002 00
041730 2204N 07344W 6966 03061 9969 +076 +057 233065 070 046 009 03
041800 2206N 07345W 6970 03052 9951 +088 +044 234064 065 043 003 03
041830 2207N 07346W 6964 03058 9952 +084 +054 232064 066 044 003 00
041900 2208N 07348W 6967 03054 9957 +078 +047 232066 069 044 006 03
041930 2209N 07349W 6973 03047 9962 +071 +046 235068 070 046 009 00
042000 2210N 07350W 6974 03033 9957 +072 +054 242068 070 046 011 00
$$
;

[windnrain]

This looks like the trough is retrograding...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020430
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 56 20151002
042030 2211N 07351W 6968 03041 9940 +081 +057 240070 079 047 012 03
042100 2212N 07352W 6953 03055 9935 +080 +078 228069 080 050 018 02
042130 2213N 07354W 6981 03017 9916 +094 +055 237062 065 053 012 03
042200 2214N 07355W 6964 03028 9928 +079 +070 228071 073 047 025 03
042230 2216N 07356W 6978 03011 9931 +073 +062 233073 077 052 023 03
042300 2217N 07357W 6964 03022 9922 +077 +069 244072 074 049 020 03
042330 2218N 07358W 6963 03026 9911 +089 +051 241071 072 049 004 03
042400 2219N 07359W 6968 03022 9907 +093 +043 239073 075 074 002 03
042430 2220N 07401W 6967 03010 9894 +090 +047 238072 075 /// /// 03
042500 2221N 07402W 6969 02993 9878 +093 +044 239072 073 /// /// 03
042530 2222N 07403W 6971 02988 9870 +092 +050 238073 074 /// /// 03
042600 2223N 07404W 6965 02988 9862 +095 +041 238075 077 /// /// 03
042630 2224N 07405W 6974 02984 9872 +098 +044 237078 081 044 001 00
042700 2225N 07406W 6966 02989 9869 +094 +040 240083 086 048 002 00
042730 2226N 07407W 6944 03013 9866 +087 +048 238085 088 051 004 03
042800 2227N 07409W 6974 02965 9851 +093 +049 242093 095 051 003 03
042830 2228N 07410W 6943 02992 9853 +084 +056 238093 101 050 008 03
042900 2229N 07411W 6973 02950 9851 +082 +043 239095 098 055 005 00
042930 2230N 07412W 6959 02963 9842 +084 +036 235096 097 056 005 00
043000 2231N 07413W 6965 02949 9832 +084 +040 231093 097 056 005 03
$$
;

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Certainly an impressive trough digging into the Southeast.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Sanibel]

I don't know why people were saying the trough stopped earlier. Looks like a kicker to me.

[northjaxpro]

This looks like the trough is retrograding...

If you look carefully at the trough imo it is trying to set up a Northwest to Southeast orientation, which is a negative tilt. If that orientation is indeed trying to set-up, U.S. landfall possibility will be back into play. Watch the evolution of the trough very closely tomorrow into Saturday.

[galaxy401]

I dreading what the reports will say of the Bahamas once Joaquin finally moves away. They had heavy rain for over a day now.

[Sanibel]

If you look carefully at the trough imo it is trying to set up a Northwest to Southeast orientation, which is a negative tilt. If that orientation is indeed trying to set-up, U.S. landfall possibility will be back into play. Watch the evolution of the trough very closely tomorrow into Saturday.

I saw that too. The Atlantic ridge seems to be retrograding to boot (which is what is probably causing the negative tilt). Could be an interesting scenario setting up.

[Cdavis]

Hi New here, been monitoring this board and systems for quite a while. This season has been almost opposite what a typical El Nino season usually is and the forecasters/models have been way off. Unfortunately I don't think our friends in the Bahamas were the least prepared for this system and let's all pray for them for the beating they are ensuing. I know the models have shifted east and now showing signs of west. All of the east coast from south Florida to the northern east US coast should be on alert. That saying there is a monster that (God willing does not happen) could turn it's direction. I have seen the models change and change again but let no one on the east coast let they're guard down. Models have been EXTREMELY inconsistent this year!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020439
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 57 20151002
043030 2232N 07414W 6977 02928 9822 +087 +047 228093 094 056 007 00
043100 2233N 07415W 6970 02925 9820 +080 +061 229098 100 064 010 00
043130 2235N 07416W 6970 02919 9806 +083 +054 230101 104 072 011 00
043200 2236N 07417W 6963 02908 9788 +081 +056 225107 108 076 016 00
043230 2237N 07418W 6967 02887 9766 +082 +078 229107 109 087 024 03
043300 2238N 07420W 6961 02870 9741 +081 +065 235117 120 /// /// 03
043330 2239N 07420W 6959 02858 9718 +083 +073 237119 123 090 025 00
043400 2239N 07421W 6970 02821 9690 +089 +073 239110 116 091 014 00
043430 2240N 07422W 6960 02815 9666 +092 +078 235112 115 091 014 00
043500 2241N 07424W 6971 02777 9635 +098 +084 232105 109 098 030 00
043530 2242N 07425W 6972 02757 9613 +094 +080 231111 114 102 039 00
043600 2243N 07426W 6962 02738 9574 +100 +088 230108 110 104 040 00
043630 2244N 07427W 6971 02692 9533 +102 +089 230111 113 110 031 03
043700 2245N 07428W 6989 02632 9488 +112 +094 227112 119 113 004 06
043730 2246N 07429W 6928 02690 9425 +154 +094 231082 087 113 004 03
043800 2247N 07430W 6971 02623 9398 +166 +092 236063 079 097 001 03
043830 2249N 07431W 6963 02618 9387 +166 +087 246046 055 050 002 03
043900 2250N 07432W 6970 02602 9385 +159 +089 242034 040 029 002 03
043930 2251N 07433W 6971 02594 9383 +152 +094 234029 031 026 002 00
044000 2253N 07434W 6962 02599 9375 +150 +101 223028 032 023 003 03
$$
;

123 kt FL, 113 kt SFMR. Pressure so far 938mb.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[emeraldislenc]

Plus it looks like the remnants of Ida looks weaker and it appears to be moving more east.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[SunnyThoughts]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2015 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 22:54:04 N Lon : 74:36:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 918.8mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 5.6

Center Temp : -68.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[emeraldislenc]

Good point Davis!!!

[northjaxpro]

If you look carefully at the trough imo it is trying to set up a Northwest to Southeast orientation, which is a negative tilt. If that orientation is indeed trying to set-up, U.S. landfall possibility will be back into play. Watch the evolution of the trough very closely tomorrow into Saturday.

I saw that too. The Atlantic ridge seems to be retrograding to boot. Could be an interesting scenario setting up.

Yeah it is what I call the slingshot set-up. There is a potential that the deep trough may become negative-tilted, and depending on how close to the coast Joaquin is as he finally moves north/northeast this weekend will be key. Once Joaquin gets base the latitude position of the base of the trough, the negative tilt of the trough, combined with a potential High Pressure ridge building in from SE Canada, could work in tandem to have Joaquin sling -shotted or make the hook turn west/northwest toward the U.S. East Coast during the weekend.

[Steve]

Trough is tilting but I don't think retrograding. Last weather I saw had nola not getting above 80 for the next 3 days. I'm outside barefoot in shorts and a tshirt. It's kinda got a chilly feel to the air. So the flow is digging in. Btw, Im wondering if that blow up on the North and South Carolina coasts out ahead of Joaquin is the remnants of 99l. That's about where it would be.