ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Needless to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially beyond 48 hours, is extremely low.

Above is a quote from many NHC discussions for Joaquin and from many previous storm discussions. The confidence in the forecasts this year seems lower than previous years, the only conclusion I have is the El Nino effect creating difficult to predict patterns. It goes back to the old discussion here about having a 5 day cone or keep it at 3 day. This year the 3 day would have been better, but for most normal years the NHC is pretty good 5 days out... JHMO

[Bizzles]

Where'd all the hype go???

Typical fairweather...er poorweather fans...

[RL3AO]

Needless to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially beyond 48 hours, is extremely low.

Above is a quote from many NHC discussions for Joaquin and from many previous storm discussions. The confidence in the forecasts this year seems lower than previous years, the only conclusion I have is the El Nino effect creating difficult to predict patterns. It goes back to the old discussion here about having a 5 day cone or keep it at 3 day. This year the 3 day would have been better, but for most normal years the NHC is pretty good 5 days out... JHMO

Saying El Nino is responsible for these patterns is like saying this storm was caused by climate change. It really doesn't make sense. Not every trough and ridge across the planet this fall/winter will be caused by El Nino.

[blp]

So the turn has begun. Right before 75W. Good job by the NHC.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Where'd all the hype go???

Typical fairweather...er poorweather fans...

I know right. Glad it is going to Miss the United States. I said this before a couple of times, why??would anyone want a Major disaster like this would have caused?? I understand liking Weather and excitement but a Major Hurricane. Baffles me!!!

[pgoss11]

So the turn has begun. Right before 75W. Good job by the NHC.

You can say all you want about the NHC, but they do a fantastic job!

[Weatherwatcher98]

So the turn has begun. Right before 75W. Good job by the NHC.

You can say all you want about the NHC, but they do a fantastic job!

I agree 100%

[pgoss11]

We also must remember that even though the Carolinas are escaping the full wrath of Joaquin the moisture feed from the hurricane into the Carolinas could cause catastrophic flooding and life threatening situations. Everyone in that area be wise and safe. It doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause loss of life.

[BigB0882]

Now we are saying the NHC did a good job? They usually do but they really blew it with this one. They finally got back on track but boy were they way off from what they were showing about a week ago, this is absolutely no where in the vicinity of where they thought it would be at this time. Probably one of their biggest misses in a long time.

[windnrain]

Surprised how fast the trough is retrograding/negative tilting

[RL3AO]

Now we are saying the NHC did a good job? They usually do but they really blew it with this one. They finally got back on track but boy were they way off from what they were showing about a week ago, this is absolutely no where in the vicinity of where they thought it would be at this time. Probably one of their biggest misses in a long time.

What else do you think they should have done in this situation? They stressed very very very clearly that the track forecast was incredibly uncertain. Its not like half of the forecasters got it right and half got it wrong. Everyone got it wrong. I think NHC handled their toughest storm in many years about as well as they could have.

[xironman]

How often do you see storms getting squeezed by huge ULLs from both sides? Seems pretty rare, I can remember one. No wonder the models were having a hard time.

[Weatherwatcher98]

We also must remember that even though the Carolinas are escaping the full wrath of Joaquin the moisture feed from the hurricane into the Carolinas could cause catastrophic flooding and life threatening situations. Everyone in that area be wise and safe. It doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause loss of life.

Yes Epics rains expected in that Area. Stay Safe

[windnrain]

Joaquin is already affecting the Carolinas. Look at all the moisture pumping there.

[NDG]

So the turn has begun. Right before 75W. Good job by the NHC.

You can say all you want about the NHC, but they do a fantastic job!

And great job by the European model.

[pgoss11]

We also must remember that even though the Carolinas are escaping the full wrath of Joaquin the moisture feed from the hurricane into the Carolinas could cause catastrophic flooding and life threatening situations. Everyone in that area be wise and safe. It doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause loss of life.

Yes Epics rains expected in that Area. Stay Safe

Thanks..I'm in Charleston and we're all very concerned about the incredible amounts of rainfall they are predicting. 12-15 inches with isolated 20 inch amounts. The low country could become literally under water.

[Bizzles]

Now we are saying the NHC did a good job? They usually do but they really blew it with this one. They finally got back on track but boy were they way off from what they were showing about a week ago, this is absolutely no where in the vicinity of where they thought it would be at this time. Probably one of their biggest misses in a long time.

Not really, if you actually READ the discussions the NHC was CLEARLY stating that the track was a COMPROMISE track basically of the two scenarios that the models were showing...

...some left, some right, so go up the middle.

[NDG]

And the island of San Salvador is back under the gun, Reporting wind gusts of 129 miles per hour.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Now we are saying the NHC did a good job? They usually do but they really blew it with this one. They finally got back on track but boy were they way off from what they were showing about a week ago, this is absolutely no where in the vicinity of where they thought it would be at this time. Probably one of their biggest misses in a long time.

What else do you think they should have done in this situation? They stressed very very very clearly that the track forecast was incredibly uncertain. Its not like half of the forecasters got it right and half got it wrong. Everyone got it wrong. I think NHC handled their toughest storm in many years about as well as they could have.

Exactly. I am sure they are used to Monday Morning Quarterbacks though. They made adjustments as they needed and fully stated the complexity of the situation. Every Met I have seen discussing this storm, has said it was one of the hardest to forecast in the history of Tracking. I guess it easy to criticize from the outside looking in. Kudos to The NHC

[Weatherwatcher98]

And the island of San Salvador is back under the gun, Reporting wind gusts of 129 miles per hour.

Not looking forward to the damage reports from these areas...