CPAC: OHO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

[wxmann_91]

Surprised there isn't more talk about this system. This has a higher chance of affecting the US than does Joaquin.

[Darvince]

Probably the huge number of people in Joaquin's potential path - while 97C would at max affect 2 million people in Hawai'i, Joaquin has the potential to easily affect 20+ million people.

[Extratropical94]

Edit: Oops, wrong one.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 600 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development through Friday then become less hostile on Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

[Darvince]

Both 97 and 98 are at 50%? It seems like it'll be a race to see which one becomes Oho and which one becomes Pali.

[Cyclenall]

Surprised there isn't more talk about this system. This has a higher chance of affecting the US than does Joaquin.

Its the one where the Euro a few days ago showed it moving right on the Big Island of Hawaii and then sits it right there for maybe a day or so and strengthens it considerably while sitting on the mountain. The Euro is King, but this time I think its just got the shakes for not just 97C... If you showed me the Sept.30 00z run of it that shows both the Pacific and Atlantic basins like on FSU site without a label, and was asked to pick what model it was I'd go with CMC.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro shifts more west. Really close to the big island if not a land fall.

[Kingarabian]

Convection increasing.

[Extratropical94]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 600 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii and are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions support tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it slowly begins to move north.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like almost a TC.

Track wise, there is a noticeable east bias with these kind of systems, so I'm expecting a westward shift.

[Alyono]

wonder if we will get recon for this one

[EquusStorm]

This season has just been incredible for the CPac. Looks like it's not over yet.

[Alyono]

recon is flying. Not sure if the G-IV is being diverted as there is a synoptic surveillance flight on Sunday

[Alyono]

I have no clue what the MU is doing on the 12Z

[Kingarabian]

Really discomforting.

[Alyono]

hope the trend of the models shifting westward with these recurving systems does not continue

[Alyono]

I wonder if the G-IV is in fact flying as all G-IV flights have been cancelled for Joaquin

[Kingarabian]

00z euro shifted more east.

[Alyono]

new MU is very close to the EC, so it looks to have shifted slightly west

[Kingarabian]

new MU is very close to the EC, so it looks to have shifted slightly west

I know it's 144 hours out, but there appears to be a consensus among the models that Hawaii will be spared once again and 97C will miss closely to the east of the big island. However, residents of Hawaii need to continue to monitor 97C as it likely will be a very strong hurricane brushing the islands and we may see Hurricane watches.

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