ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

So the turn has begun. Right before 75W. Good job by the NHC.

[]http://i61.tinypic.com/5517nl.gif[/img]

You can say all you want about the NHC, but they do a fantastic job!

And great job by the European model.

Yes IMO I think the Euro earned back lots of credibility with this storm after poor performance on others this season. It was funny reading model posts early on, I think we all thought the Euro was out to lunch with that huge SW dip.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I agree but after a few runs I just could not ignore it's insistence that this would not hit the United States.

[NDG]

Now we are saying the NHC did a good job? They usually do but they really blew it with this one. They finally got back on track but boy were they way off from what they were showing about a week ago, this is absolutely no where in the vicinity of where they thought it would be at this time. Probably one of their biggest misses in a long time.

Not really, if you actually READ the discussions the NHC was CLEARLY stating that the track was a COMPROMISE track basically of the two scenarios that the models were showing...

...some left, some right, so go up the middle.

And whoever thinks that the forecast track at days 4 & 5 are written on stone are wrong. They Made it clearly how uncertain the track was.

[xironman]

And the island of San Salvador is back under the gun, Reporting wind gusts of 129 miles per hour.

Not looking forward to the damage reports from these areas...

Discussed on NPR last night, they tend to do all concrete construction for just such occurrences.

[windnrain]

Can someone explain what exactly is going to move this thing Northeast? It doesn't look possible

[cfltrib]

San Salvador now getting the worst of it with 110 mph sustained winds and gusts to 144.
This has been a prolonged nightmare for the east central Bahamas.

[stormlover2013]

invest 90 brother is doing alot of it

[EquusStorm]

I think this little fact has impressed me more than I thought it would. Actually really astounding.

One thing I believe: Joaquin is the strongest storm in the satellite era to have non-tropical origins. The only other majors I know of that came from sources other than tropical waves were Alicia 1983, Diana 1984, Bob and Claudette 1991 and Michael 2012.

Looks to be getting its act together again this morning, but seems to be happening at a fairly relaxed pace. Absolutely no relaxation for those in the Bahamas under this thing... reminds me of a belt sander just sitting over a board. Not as dramatic of course, but who besides hardcore weather extremists wants to sit under the eyewall of a 110+ kt hurricane for like eight hours??

[Weatherwatcher98]

And the island of San Salvador is back under the gun, Reporting wind gusts of 129 miles per hour.

Not looking forward to the damage reports from these areas...

Discussed on NPR last night, they tend to do all concrete construction for just such occurrences.

I was thinking that but I am concerned about the flooding and surge as well. Do they have shelters there as well? I know the one island, Long Island I believe, only has 3000 people not sure how much of an Infrastructure is in Place.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I think this little fact has impressed me more than I thought it would. Actually really astounding.

One thing I believe: Joaquin is the strongest storm in the satellite era to have non-tropical origins. The only other majors I know of that came from sources other than tropical waves were Alicia 1983, Diana 1984, Bob and Claudette 1991 and Michael 2012.

Looks to be getting its act together again this morning, but seems to be happening at a fairly relaxed pace. Absolutely no relaxation for those in the Bahamas under this thing... reminds me of a belt sander just sitting over a board. Not as dramatic of course, but who besides hardcore weather extremists wants to sit under the eyewall of a 110+ kt hurricane for like eight hours??

Not me, I don't think anyone in their right mind would. It's going on about 12 hours in some places there

[xironman]

Discussed on NPR last night, they tend to do all concrete construction for just such occurrences.

I was thinking that but I am concerned about the flooding and surge as well. Do they have shelters there as well? I know the one island, Long Island I believe, only has 3000 people not sure how much of an Infrastructure is in Place.

From what was said they tend to put places on high ground. Since the islands are so flat you don't quite get the surge buildup as you do on the continent.

[Weatherwatcher98]

We also must remember that even though the Carolinas are escaping the full wrath of Joaquin the moisture feed from the hurricane into the Carolinas could cause catastrophic flooding and life threatening situations. Everyone in that area be wise and safe. It doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause loss of life.

Yes Epics rains expected in that Area. Stay Safe

Thanks..I'm in Charleston and we're all very concerned about the incredible amounts of rainfall they are predicting. 12-15 inches with isolated 20 inch amounts. The low country could become literally under water.

Stay home and Keep us posted. That is Unless your in a very flood prone Area may want to have a plan to go to higher ground. You and everyone up there is in My Prayers.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Discussed on NPR last night, they tend to do all concrete construction for just such occurrences.

I was thinking that but I am concerned about the flooding and surge as well. Do they have shelters there as well? I know the one island, Long Island I believe, only has 3000 people not sure how much of an Infrastructure is in Place.

From what was said they tend to put places on high ground. Since the islands are so flat you don't quite get the surge buildup as you do on the continent.

True I never though of that. I saw the video early on. One thing is sure.. some people may need to go car Shopping after this.

[Happy Pelican]

We also must remember that even though the Carolinas are escaping the full wrath of Joaquin the moisture feed from the hurricane into the Carolinas could cause catastrophic flooding and life threatening situations. Everyone in that area be wise and safe. It doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause loss of life.

Yes Epics rains expected in that Area. Stay Safe

Thanks..I'm in Charleston and we're all very concerned about the incredible amounts of rainfall they are predicting. 12-15 inches with isolated 20 inch amounts. The low country could become literally under water.

I have immediate family in Summerville, SC. Really worried about the flooding there. I'm on the Jersey barrier islands and it's wild here. The wind is pumping and I'm worried about my house flooding again.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Happy Pelican Stay safe! you and your family are in my Prayers as well.

[EquusStorm]

I think this little fact has impressed me more than I thought it would. Actually really astounding.

One thing I believe: Joaquin is the strongest storm in the satellite era to have non-tropical origins. The only other majors I know of that came from sources other than tropical waves were Alicia 1983, Diana 1984, Bob and Claudette 1991 and Michael 2012.

Looks to be getting its act together again this morning, but seems to be happening at a fairly relaxed pace. Absolutely no relaxation for those in the Bahamas under this thing... reminds me of a belt sander just sitting over a board. Not as dramatic of course, but who besides hardcore weather extremists wants to sit under the eyewall of a 110+ kt hurricane for like eight hours??

Not me, I don't think anyone in their right mind would. It's going on about 12 hours in some places there

Maybe you're just not hardcore enough! Kidding, I don't know anyone who'd be comfortable in that kind of conditions. I remember reading the horror stories from the chasers caught by Charley's sudden intensity explosion, and while that storm was stronger and in the midst of rapid intensification (which if I recall, many say to be far worse to be inside at landfall than an equally strong steady-state storm) I'd not want anyone to be in the middle of that.

Well, that, and the fact that Charley's eyewall was, what, a few tens of miles across at most and rapidly moving, while this is a bit larger and nearly stationary for a long period of time.

[Weatherwatcher98]

EquusStorm I have heard the right front Quad of Charley compared to a Tornado Before. I think because of the Small eye and the Movement Northeast with the front Coming Down. Crazy storm for sure.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Interesting read http://www.wunderground.com/news/hurric ... d-20140811

[tolakram]

Live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=85&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[AutoPenalti]

Looks to be wobbling to the NE on the last 2 frames.