ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[CrazyC83]

We must not lose track of the fact that Bermuda might have a dangerous hurricane situation with relatively little preparation time if it starts accelerating NNE. They are just as anxious as we are on the east coast...

[LarryWx]

Even the 12Z JMA, which had some wild far SW tracks into SC 2 and 3 days ago, has him well out to sea today.

[tailgater]

I like what the Nam is doing except the pressure will start rising a lot more than it forecast. It's going to get rip apart soon if it hasn't started already just looking at the Water vapor.

[LarryWx]

Based on the 12Z Euro through 42, I'll be shocked if it doesn't stay well east of the US.

[Ken Lucas]

Based on the 12Z Euro through 42, I'll be shocked if it doesn't stay well east of the US.

That's great news to hear.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is well away from the US/Canada. It is a little closer to Bermuda than its prior run but still misses them to the west.

The 12Z UKMET is also out to sea like its prior run. It misses the US, Canada, and Bermuda.

[stormlover2013]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/up ... cebook.com

[floridasun78]

Euro this king for forecast of JOAQUIN alot was think could not happen it did

[capepoint]

Some of these models are crap for hurricane track, thats true. But, they do a great job of forecasting fronts, troughs, ridges, etc. Thats why they are still in use, they are good at one particular thing. A wise man uses them all and watches trends and systems, not just one or two models looking at a particular storm track. You need to see why the models are moving the track a certain way. This is how we look for features that can make or break a model forecast, and gives us an idea if a models reasoning is sound, or if it is in lala land. In this storms case, both the gfs and euro had plausable solutions for a few days, then by watching features in other models, the gfs landfall solution became more and more improbable.

[sponger]

Perfect swell window for Florida and the rest of the East Coast.

[smithtim]

Perfect swell window for Florida and the rest of the East Coast.

Yeah...last week the surf models for FLa were showing about 5' size more than currently... I think a lot of them were counting on NW track for longer throwing swell right out in front towards FLa, but thankfully storm made that turn N/NE away

Still I've been enjoying and looks like tomorrow AM dawn patrol is going to be about good as it gets for FLa : ))

[smithtim]

Looks like good job Euro is in order. IMHO

Yep!!!

Did anyone notice if did it - on last night's 00z runs - predict this reintenification??? ( 155mph currently WOW)

BTW
hwrf & gfdl fine mesh 00&06z really didn't...pretty much just showed holding around 100 knots then dies out as moving north; one of the runs showed minor intensify for very brief time......NHC forecasted 120ish both 11pm yesterday & 5am today) and I'm assuming adjusted this afternoon due to recon

[AJC3]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC WED OCT 7 2015
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN (AL112015) 20151007 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
        151007  1800   151008  0600   151008  1800   151009  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    41.3N  43.2W   41.4N  38.8W   40.6N  34.2W   39.5N  29.8W
BAMD    41.3N  43.2W   42.1N  34.5W   42.1N  26.6W   41.2N  20.2W
BAMM    41.3N  43.2W   41.4N  36.4W   41.1N  30.2W   40.4N  25.0W
LBAR    41.3N  43.2W   42.3N  34.9W   43.0N  27.3W   43.9N  21.2W
SHIP        60KTS          48KTS          31KTS           0KTS
DSHP        60KTS          48KTS          31KTS           0KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
        151009  1800   151010  1800   151011  1800   151012  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    38.1N  25.7W   35.5N  19.9W   33.0N  16.6W   31.4N  12.8W
BAMD    39.6N  15.6W   35.6N   7.4W   33.5N   3.2E   33.5N  16.2E
BAMM    39.4N  20.8W   37.6N  13.3W   37.1N   5.9W   38.4N   2.1E
LBAR    44.8N  17.7W   44.6N  12.7W    0.0N   0.0W    0.0N   0.0W
SHIP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  41.3N LONCUR =  43.2W DIRCUR =  75DEG SPDCUR =  32KT
LATM12 =  40.2N LONM12 =  51.5W DIRM12 =  74DEG SPDM12 =  29KT
LATM24 =  38.8N LONM24 =  58.0W
WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   65KT
CENPRS =  977MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  350NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  160NM RD34SE =  270NM RD34SW =  270NM RD34NW = 160NM
 
$$
NNNN

This is too funny not to share...I was just watching one of the Orlando TV stations give an update on Joaquin. For some reason, they insisted on showing the BAM suite/LBAR tracks. Anyone want to guess what the 72+ hour LBAR track looked like on their graphic?