ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030115
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 35 20151003
010630 2356N 07416W 6958 02912 9767 +104 +104 279100 103 061 026 00
010700 2356N 07417W 6960 02914 9780 +103 +103 281100 102 063 025 03
010730 2355N 07418W 6962 02914 9791 +101 +101 283101 102 /// /// 03
010800 2354N 07419W 6964 02915 9798 +098 +098 285101 102 064 014 03
010830 2354N 07420W 6952 02937 9797 +100 +100 286100 102 060 012 03
010900 2353N 07421W 6970 02920 9795 +103 +103 288099 100 062 007 00
010930 2352N 07422W 6957 02940 9782 +105 +099 289096 098 062 007 00
011000 2352N 07423W 6961 02940 9784 +109 +091 290095 096 059 007 00
011030 2351N 07424W 6961 02947 9794 +106 +090 291092 094 058 004 00
011100 2350N 07426W 6959 02954 9794 +110 +090 290091 092 059 004 00
011130 2349N 07427W 6962 02956 9797 +115 +080 292091 092 058 003 00
011200 2349N 07428W 6961 02963 9805 +113 +079 294088 090 055 004 00
011230 2348N 07429W 6957 02971 9817 +105 +087 295085 087 054 004 00
011300 2347N 07430W 6964 02969 9833 +097 //// 293083 084 054 004 01
011330 2346N 07431W 6961 02980 9820 +114 +085 295081 082 052 004 00
011400 2346N 07433W 6963 02983 9838 +102 +096 295079 082 052 004 01
011430 2345N 07434W 6957 02994 9844 +103 +096 292078 079 052 004 00
011500 2344N 07435W 6966 02988 9852 +101 +093 292079 080 052 004 00
011530 2343N 07436W 6958 03002 9858 +098 +090 292076 079 050 005 00
011600 2342N 07437W 6964 03001 9864 +098 +089 295075 075 049 003 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 030118
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 03/00:50:40Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
074 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2622 m
D. 87 kt
E. 041 deg 20 nm
F. 111 deg 92 kt
G. 038 deg 14 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 14 C / 3040 m
J. 18 C / 3057 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 126 KT 157 / 32 NM 23:19:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 119 KT 182 / 17 NM 01:03:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 315 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 038 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 1:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 0:50:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°22'N 74°13'W (24.3667N 74.2167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,622m (8,602ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 92kts (From the ESE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SSE (157°) from the flight level center at 23:19:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 119kts (~ 136.9mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the S (182°) from the flight level center at 1:03:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 315° at 11kts (From the NW at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center

[CronkPSU]

Is it suppose to go sub-tropical? Looks like it may already be starting to transition

[Iune]

Well, Joaquin is moving to the northwest as it's being picked up by the trough, so it should be moving W to E.

Also, the timestamps in the bottom show that it's in the proper order

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 030118
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 03/00:50:40Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
074 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2622 m
D. 87 kt
E. 041 deg 20 nm
F. 111 deg 92 kt
G. 038 deg 14 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 14 C / 3040 m
J. 18 C / 3057 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 126 KT 157 / 32 NM 23:19:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 119 KT 182 / 17 NM 01:03:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 315 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 038 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030126
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 36 20151003
011630 2341N 07439W 6963 03004 9867 +100 +086 294073 075 048 004 00
011700 2341N 07440W 6962 03008 9871 +099 +087 294072 073 046 005 00
011730 2340N 07441W 6965 03008 9873 +101 +085 292072 072 046 004 00
011800 2339N 07442W 6965 03013 9884 +095 +090 290069 072 043 004 00
011830 2338N 07443W 6963 03019 9883 +100 +083 288067 069 045 004 00
011900 2337N 07445W 6961 03022 9883 +102 +081 291067 067 046 004 00
011930 2336N 07446W 6958 03030 9890 +100 +083 291066 067 045 003 00
012000 2336N 07447W 6959 03030 9894 +097 +086 291066 067 045 003 00
012030 2335N 07448W 6965 03025 9894 +100 +083 293066 067 043 004 00
012100 2334N 07450W 6958 03036 9893 +101 +083 296066 067 042 003 00
012130 2333N 07451W 6966 03027 9902 +099 +085 296066 067 045 007 00
012200 2332N 07452W 6939 03059 9926 +104 +104 301062 070 041 016 00
012230 2331N 07454W 6960 03037 9939 +100 +100 293068 070 038 012 00
012300 2330N 07455W 6954 03048 9912 +097 //// 294067 068 040 006 01
012330 2329N 07456W 6959 03045 9913 +098 +093 295065 067 041 004 00
012400 2329N 07457W 6961 03044 9902 +104 +082 293064 064 040 003 03
012430 2328N 07459W 6962 03043 9888 +120 +070 292063 065 040 004 00
012500 2327N 07500W 6958 03048 9889 +118 +075 291063 066 040 003 00
012530 2326N 07501W 6963 03043 9885 +126 +060 293063 066 040 003 00
012600 2325N 07503W 6959 03049 9884 +128 +051 295064 065 044 004 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030135
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 37 20151003
012630 2324N 07504W 6959 03053 9895 +120 +067 294061 064 042 004 00
012700 2323N 07505W 6962 03052 9897 +121 +070 293060 061 041 003 00
012730 2322N 07506W 6962 03053 9905 +114 +079 286058 060 041 001 00
012800 2322N 07508W 6957 03061 9903 +117 +099 288058 060 065 002 05
012830 2321N 07509W 6958 03061 //// +100 //// 292056 059 051 003 01
012900 2320N 07510W 6960 03061 9907 +115 +082 297054 055 042 002 00
012930 2319N 07512W 6963 03058 9903 +123 +069 298055 056 037 001 00
013000 2318N 07513W 6962 03061 9908 +121 +063 295054 055 036 001 00
013030 2317N 07514W 6960 03065 9906 +123 +066 294051 054 037 000 00
013100 2316N 07516W 6961 03065 9912 +118 +077 294050 051 037 001 00
013130 2315N 07517W 6959 03067 9912 +118 +078 293049 050 036 001 00
013200 2314N 07518W 6962 03067 9917 +116 +078 294048 049 036 001 00
013230 2313N 07520W 6959 03071 9916 +118 +078 297048 048 033 002 00
013300 2312N 07521W 6962 03071 9918 +120 +076 298049 049 036 001 00
013330 2311N 07523W 6962 03072 9922 +115 +083 294051 052 036 001 00
013400 2311N 07524W 6961 03075 9927 +115 +085 295052 052 036 001 00
013430 2310N 07525W 6960 03079 9924 +117 +094 294051 052 039 002 00
013500 2309N 07527W 6961 03078 9926 +117 +085 290047 049 040 002 00
013530 2308N 07528W 6963 03077 9925 +122 +063 293050 051 039 002 00
013600 2307N 07529W 6961 03079 9933 +116 +063 292048 049 037 002 00
$$
;

[JahJa]

After the surprises we had late in the hurricane season last year no one is taking chances this year. Earlier on this evening the Bermuda Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning for Bermuda.

[Sanibel]

GOM CONUS fronts are usually the cool hand of fate for hurricanes.

[JonathanBelles]

Post for the evening: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/10/02/jo ... overnight/

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through HDOB 38:

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030145
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 38 20151003
013630 2306N 07531W 6961 03082 9936 +115 +068 290046 047 035 001 00
013700 2305N 07532W 6963 03079 9933 +118 +070 290048 049 035 001 00
013730 2304N 07533W 6959 03086 9933 +118 +070 291047 048 033 002 00
013800 2303N 07535W 6962 03084 9938 +115 +074 293048 049 034 002 00
013830 2302N 07536W 6959 03089 9939 +116 +075 292047 048 034 003 00
013900 2301N 07537W 6961 03087 9938 +116 +077 291046 047 033 002 03
013930 2300N 07538W 6957 03094 9940 +115 +078 286046 047 /// /// 03
014000 2259N 07536W 6965 03082 9940 +115 +081 285047 047 /// /// 03
014030 2300N 07534W 6972 03075 9941 +115 +078 283045 047 /// /// 03
014100 2300N 07532W 6967 03077 9941 +110 +084 281046 047 036 002 00
014130 2300N 07530W 6957 03086 9939 +108 +089 279048 048 036 001 00
014200 2300N 07527W 6966 03075 9937 +110 +085 279048 049 035 001 00
014230 2301N 07525W 6959 03084 9935 +111 +084 278048 048 036 001 00
014300 2301N 07523W 6964 03078 9936 +114 +079 278048 049 035 003 00
014330 2301N 07520W 6959 03083 9937 +111 +078 279049 049 036 001 03
014400 2301N 07518W 6963 03077 9933 +114 +078 280048 049 035 001 00
014430 2301N 07515W 6962 03076 9933 +112 +077 281051 051 036 001 00
014500 2301N 07513W 6958 03079 9932 +111 +080 282053 054 035 001 00
014530 2301N 07511W 6961 03076 9931 +110 +085 281056 058 035 001 00
014600 2301N 07508W 6961 03075 9930 +110 +088 281056 057 035 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030155
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 39 20151003
014630 2302N 07506W 6961 03072 9929 +110 +075 280057 057 035 000 00
014700 2302N 07503W 6963 03067 9927 +110 +080 278057 058 034 001 00
014730 2302N 07501W 6965 03065 9925 +109 +089 278060 061 035 000 00
014800 2302N 07458W 6959 03070 9929 +100 +095 278061 062 038 002 05
014830 2302N 07456W 6962 03065 //// +100 //// 277062 063 057 008 05
014900 2302N 07454W 6958 03067 //// +100 //// 275064 064 /// /// 05
014930 2302N 07451W 6958 03067 //// +100 //// 274062 064 040 001 05
015000 2302N 07449W 6961 03065 9934 +102 //// 270060 061 040 008 01
015030 2303N 07446W 6958 03071 9958 +100 +100 269062 063 042 009 03
015100 2303N 07444W 6958 03070 9941 +096 //// 267061 064 043 007 01
015130 2303N 07441W 6961 03066 9933 +100 +084 266061 061 042 002 00
015200 2303N 07439W 6963 03062 9931 +101 +093 268062 063 043 002 00
015230 2303N 07436W 6961 03064 9930 +096 //// 268065 065 042 002 01
015300 2303N 07434W 6960 03066 9931 +096 //// 266066 067 042 003 01
015330 2303N 07431W 6962 03064 //// +096 //// 267066 067 041 004 01
015400 2303N 07429W 6957 03069 //// +094 //// 266067 068 040 003 01
015430 2303N 07426W 6961 03062 //// +098 //// 271066 067 038 003 01
015500 2304N 07423W 6962 03062 9951 +095 //// 268068 069 040 003 01
015530 2304N 07421W 6961 03062 9952 +102 //// 263066 068 043 008 01
015600 2304N 07418W 6968 03054 9962 +101 +101 261064 065 038 014 00
$$
;

[drewschmaltz]

Well, Joaquin is moving to the northwest as it's being picked up by the trough, so it should be moving W to E.

Also, the timestamps in the bottom show that it's in the proper order

lol - ok, my post was obviously mistaken. I know it's in order and I know what to expect from the setup, it just looks like everything is returning from which it came. Just an interesting few frames.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030205
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 40 20151003
015630 2304N 07416W 6950 03077 9950 +101 //// 259062 065 037 006 05
015700 2304N 07413W 6964 03059 //// +099 //// 260058 059 037 002 01
015730 2304N 07411W 6963 03062 //// +098 //// 262058 059 036 003 01
015800 2304N 07409W 6960 03065 //// +097 //// 263057 058 037 003 01
015830 2304N 07406W 6962 03065 //// +099 //// 259059 059 037 002 01
015900 2304N 07404W 6961 03066 9926 +102 +101 260061 063 037 002 01
015930 2305N 07401W 6961 03066 9926 +105 +096 256063 064 036 002 00
020000 2305N 07359W 6959 03070 9929 +103 +100 254063 064 037 003 05
020030 2305N 07356W 6958 03070 //// +101 //// 254062 063 038 002 01
020100 2305N 07354W 6961 03067 //// +101 //// 251067 069 038 003 01
020130 2305N 07351W 6962 03066 //// +096 //// 252068 069 043 003 01
020200 2305N 07349W 6966 03061 //// +098 //// 254068 070 131 012 05
020230 2305N 07346W 6960 03067 //// +083 //// 251069 072 /// /// 05
020300 2305N 07344W 6964 03062 //// +079 //// 249068 071 /// /// 05
020330 2305N 07341W 6963 03067 //// +083 //// 253067 068 /// /// 05
020400 2306N 07339W 6956 03077 9971 +092 //// 252070 075 065 019 05
020430 2306N 07336W 6973 03055 9959 +097 +097 252069 076 050 022 03
020500 2306N 07334W 6955 03076 9957 +100 +100 254063 065 049 015 00
020530 2306N 07331W 6972 03053 9969 +097 +097 252071 073 045 029 00
020600 2306N 07329W 6961 03067 9972 +103 +103 237067 073 047 036 00
$$
;

[terrapintransit]

Very odd storm..

[Chris_in_Tampa]