ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 031311
AF304 1311A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20151003
130230 2548N 07210W 6974 02711 9508 +148 +144 114085 087 082 011 03
130300 2547N 07211W 6966 02689 9471 +149 +148 111081 083 083 010 00
130330 2545N 07212W 6967 02652 9459 +142 +142 105078 083 082 018 03
130400 2543N 07213W 6972 02617 9424 +147 //// 101050 071 076 016 01
130430 2542N 07213W 6968 02597 //// +147 //// 095025 041 040 004 01
130500 2540N 07213W 6964 02595 //// +145 //// 092003 016 023 003 05
130530 2538N 07213W 6979 02580 //// +147 //// 206011 012 023 002 01
130600 2536N 07212W 6967 02588 //// +152 //// 198012 013 021 003 01
130630 2535N 07212W 6981 02573 9353 +150 +150 212011 015 021 001 05
130700 2533N 07214W 6961 02590 9353 +154 +144 234013 017 025 001 00
130730 2532N 07215W 6972 02569 //// +143 //// 270020 024 027 001 01
130800 2531N 07216W 6963 02589 //// +137 //// 283034 040 034 003 01
130830 2530N 07218W 6970 02585 //// +141 //// 294048 053 044 003 01
130900 2529N 07219W 6969 02605 9394 +144 //// 297061 067 059 005 01
130930 2528N 07220W 6974 02618 //// +141 //// 305078 084 070 004 01
131000 2527N 07221W 6970 02656 9459 +138 //// 307099 105 085 007 01
131030 2526N 07222W 6961 02693 9492 +143 +143 305104 107 092 013 00
131100 2525N 07224W 6979 02706 9527 +138 +138 303118 121 092 013 00
131130 2524N 07225W 6959 02749 9548 +134 +133 304121 122 092 013 00
131200 2523N 07226W 6977 02752 9572 +135 +118 303122 123 088 004 00

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 122 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 123 knots
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 92 knots

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 935.3 mb (a lot of missing values in this ob)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Northeast Quadrant:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 86 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 94 knots
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 83 knots

Southwest quadrant is stronger. Will post more of that when next set comes in.

[BobHarlem]

A few photos of the Bahamas are starting to show up https://twitter.com/ZNSBahamas242

A few recent ones were showing leveling of multiple buildings on Rum Cay.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 031321
AF304 1311A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20151003
131230 2522N 07227W 6969 02787 9595 +135 +115 302119 121 087 004 00
131300 2521N 07228W 6965 02811 9624 +126 +115 301115 117 085 001 00
131330 2520N 07229W 6970 02824 9653 +121 //// 302110 113 081 003 01
131400 2519N 07230W 6967 02843 //// +117 //// 303107 109 078 003 01
131430 2518N 07231W 6969 02858 9699 +119 //// 305102 104 076 005 01
131500 2517N 07232W 6973 02867 9714 +121 //// 303100 103 073 005 01
131530 2516N 07233W 6963 02889 9746 +115 +115 306104 109 066 008 00
131600 2515N 07234W 6981 02886 9778 +100 +100 310105 110 061 010 00
131630 2514N 07235W 6966 02915 9774 +107 +105 307093 100 059 005 00
131700 2513N 07237W 6976 02921 9763 +122 +105 304090 091 059 005 00
131730 2512N 07238W 6967 02945 9803 +110 +109 305086 090 058 010 00
131800 2511N 07239W 6959 02953 9796 +111 //// 304087 088 058 007 01
131830 2510N 07240W 6961 02957 9818 +107 //// 302085 088 058 005 01
131900 2509N 07241W 6966 02962 9839 +103 +103 302082 086 059 007 00
131930 2508N 07243W 6976 02957 9870 +100 +100 298081 084 053 010 00
132000 2507N 07244W 6973 02966 9874 +095 +095 298084 087 052 008 00
132030 2506N 07245W 6970 02976 9858 +098 //// 299083 083 051 007 01
132100 2505N 07246W 6970 02982 //// +096 //// 300082 082 048 002 01
132130 2504N 07247W 6968 02987 9864 +097 //// 302078 082 047 003 01
132200 2503N 07248W 6974 02988 9871 +097 //// 298075 076 045 004 01
$$
;

[tolakram]

Big picture loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

closeup

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Southwest Quadrant:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 122 knots (~ 140.4 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 123 knots (~ 141.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 92 knots (~ 105.9 mph)

[CrazyC83]

I did mention in a blog post yesterday that there is a slight window today for restrengthening IMO before shear and cooler water slowly take over. Not too surprised by this development.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 031327
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 03/13:05:20Z
B. 25 deg 39 min N
072 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2558 m
D. 83 kt
E. 010 deg 8 nm
F. 141 deg 94 kt
G. 030 deg 19 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 13 C / 3072 m
J. 16 C / 3045 m
K. NA / NA
L. Open NW
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF304 1311A JOAQUIN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 129 KT 209 / 22 NM 11:32:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 123 KT 220 / 19 NM 13:12:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 11 KT



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 13:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 13:05:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°39'N 72°13'W (25.65N 72.2167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,558m (8,392ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 141° at 94kts (From the SE at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 937mb (27.67 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SSW (209°) from the flight level center at 11:32:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 123kts (~ 141.5mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (220°) from the flight level center at 13:12:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 031331
AF304 1311A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20151003
132230 2502N 07250W 6967 03001 //// +090 //// 297070 073 045 003 01
132300 2501N 07251W 6967 03005 //// +090 //// 299070 070 043 002 01
132330 2500N 07252W 6974 03000 9883 +095 +085 300070 071 044 000 00
132400 2459N 07253W 6974 03004 9886 +097 +083 302070 070 044 001 00
132430 2458N 07255W 6969 03012 9890 +096 +084 303069 070 043 001 00
132500 2457N 07256W 6969 03015 9887 +102 +081 303070 070 042 001 00
132530 2455N 07256W 6970 03017 9888 +104 +087 298065 070 039 002 00
132600 2453N 07257W 6966 03024 //// +095 //// 301061 062 036 003 01
132630 2451N 07257W 6973 03022 9898 +103 +091 298065 067 037 001 01
132700 2450N 07258W 6974 03023 9904 +098 +089 293065 067 037 000 03
132730 2448N 07259W 6971 03027 9910 +093 +090 294061 064 038 000 05
132800 2447N 07300W 6971 03030 //// +091 //// 297061 061 038 000 01
132830 2446N 07301W 6969 03035 9915 +096 +088 300060 062 038 001 01
132900 2445N 07303W 6969 03039 //// +093 //// 299058 060 041 000 01
132930 2444N 07304W 6973 03039 9925 +095 +090 299058 059 040 001 00
133000 2444N 07305W 6967 03047 9923 +096 +090 301057 058 037 001 00
133030 2443N 07307W 6974 03040 9924 +100 +087 300055 056 036 001 00
133100 2442N 07308W 6967 03051 9927 +098 +089 299054 055 035 000 00
133130 2441N 07309W 6967 03051 9930 +097 +088 298055 056 034 000 00
133200 2440N 07311W 6967 03053 9938 +091 +088 297053 056 036 001 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Ken Lucas]

I hope the Bahamas can now assess the damage and start rebuilding with Joaquin exiting the area. Also that stays clear of Bermuda on it's track out to sea. I can't thank the contributors both pro-mets and non pro-mets who have contributed to this thread. It was certainly a great learning experience for me when it comes to models and other weather related elements that go into forecasting hurricanes.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[EquusStorm]

Well, looks like I might have to eat my words a bit. Joaquin looks better organized today than it did most of yesterday, and looks like we have a shot at seeing a visible eye today. I wonder if the eastward jog helped it find a perfect balance between a great outflow channel and minimal shear from the same general feature. To the west it looked as if upper level winds were becoming a little too strong.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 031342
AF304 1311A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151003
133230 2439N 07312W 6973 03051 9938 +090 +089 291053 055 034 002 01
133300 2438N 07313W 6964 03057 9937 +094 +086 289054 055 036 001 00
133330 2437N 07315W 6971 03053 9939 +097 +084 290054 054 035 001 00
133400 2436N 07316W 6969 03060 9943 +095 +086 289052 053 035 001 00
133430 2435N 07317W 6970 03058 9939 +099 +091 289050 051 034 001 00
133500 2434N 07318W 6972 03058 9936 +102 +087 290050 050 034 001 00
133530 2433N 07320W 6972 03061 9938 +105 +084 289048 049 031 001 00
133600 2432N 07321W 6967 03068 9935 +107 +079 288048 049 030 000 00
133630 2431N 07322W 6969 03064 9934 +110 +075 287047 048 031 000 00
133700 2430N 07324W 6967 03068 9929 +111 +076 289047 047 030 000 00
133730 2429N 07325W 6968 03064 9929 +113 +072 288045 046 029 001 00
133800 2428N 07326W 6967 03066 9933 +111 +071 288047 047 030 000 00
133830 2427N 07328W 6970 03066 9931 +114 +068 291046 047 027 000 00
133900 2427N 07328W 6970 03066 9936 +111 +071 293043 045 028 000 00
133930 2425N 07330W 6970 03068 9937 +111 +068 292042 042 028 001 00
134000 2424N 07332W 6964 03078 9935 +104 +092 289042 042 028 001 01
134030 2423N 07333W 6973 03066 //// +100 //// 288043 043 029 000 01
134100 2422N 07334W 6967 03073 9950 +100 +094 290042 043 028 001 00
134130 2421N 07336W 6974 03066 9945 +102 +093 289042 042 028 001 01
134200 2420N 07337W 6969 03074 9953 +100 +093 290041 042 028 000 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031342
AF304 1311A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151003
133230 2439N 07312W 6973 03051 9938 +090 +089 291053 055 034 002 01
133300 2438N 07313W 6964 03057 9937 +094 +086 289054 055 036 001 00
133330 2437N 07315W 6971 03053 9939 +097 +084 290054 054 035 001 00
133400 2436N 07316W 6969 03060 9943 +095 +086 289052 053 035 001 00
133430 2435N 07317W 6970 03058 9939 +099 +091 289050 051 034 001 00
133500 2434N 07318W 6972 03058 9936 +102 +087 290050 050 034 001 00
133530 2433N 07320W 6972 03061 9938 +105 +084 289048 049 031 001 00
133600 2432N 07321W 6967 03068 9935 +107 +079 288048 049 030 000 00
133630 2431N 07322W 6969 03064 9934 +110 +075 287047 048 031 000 00
133700 2430N 07324W 6967 03068 9929 +111 +076 289047 047 030 000 00
133730 2429N 07325W 6968 03064 9929 +113 +072 288045 046 029 001 00
133800 2428N 07326W 6967 03066 9933 +111 +071 288047 047 030 000 00
133830 2427N 07328W 6970 03066 9931 +114 +068 291046 047 027 000 00
133900 2427N 07328W 6970 03066 9936 +111 +071 293043 045 028 000 00
133930 2425N 07330W 6970 03068 9937 +111 +068 292042 042 028 001 00
134000 2424N 07332W 6964 03078 9935 +104 +092 289042 042 028 001 01
134030 2423N 07333W 6973 03066 //// +100 //// 288043 043 029 000 01
134100 2422N 07334W 6967 03073 9950 +100 +094 290042 043 028 001 00
134130 2421N 07336W 6974 03066 9945 +102 +093 289042 042 028 001 01
134200 2420N 07337W 6969 03074 9953 +100 +093 290041 042 028 000 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]