ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#2901 Postby **WilmingtonSandbar** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:02 pm

I have always been told that if you want to know where the storm is going to go, you should follow the clouds out in front of the storm. Looking at the weakness, on the water vapor map, in front of Joaquin and seeing the swirling clouds going west, should that be pause for concern?

NotoSans · #2902 Postby **NotoSans** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:05 pm

Hammy wrote:Anyone think this can keep strengthening long enough for the next plane to arrive?

I doubt it. Eye is becoming cloud-filled as observed in satellite imagery.

#2903 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Hammy wrote:Anyone think this can keep strengthening long enough for the next plane to arrive?

Not sure about strengthening but at least maintaining for awhile. ADT still holding decent, baroclinic enhancement could definitely help in terms of winds. The eye is starting to cool though, so we won't be seeing it as good as previous days.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 26:16:54 N Lon : 71:10:59 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 926.8mb/127.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Weatherwatcher98 · #2904 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:30 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I have always been told that if you want to know where the storm is going to go, you should follow the clouds out in front of the storm. Looking at the weakness, on the water vapor map, in front of Joaquin and seeing the swirling clouds going west, should that be pause for concern?

Not a Chance for this to come close to the US

Weatherwatcher98 · #2905 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Hammy wrote:Anyone think this can keep strengthening long enough for the next plane to arrive?

Not sure about strengthening but at least maintaining for awhile. ADT still holding decent, baroclinic enhancement could definitely help in terms of winds. The eye is starting to cool though, so we won't be seeing it as good as previous days.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 26:16:54 N Lon : 71:10:59 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 926.8mb/127.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

http://i58.tinypic.com/2hyyl9w.gif

Could it be a ERC?

#2906 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:35 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Could it be a ERC?

I don't think so, just likely effects of gaining latitude and long term weakening as it does so

Weatherwatcher98 · #2907 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Could it be a ERC?

I don't think so, just likely effects of gaining latitude and long term weakening as it does so

Ok thanks

Nimbus · #2908 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:46 pm

Looks like Joaquin is finally hooking back north and will make the next forecast point.
Good news for Bermuda if the trend continues!

I doubt J is starting an eyewall replacement cycle, that wispy mist has circled around the top of the eye for over an hour now but doesn't appear to be effecting the actual eyewall. If anything the convection is wrapping around the northeastern quadrant where the storm was weakening earlier.

That final eyesonde that reported 181 mph winds before failing never to be heard from again was at the 900 mb level. Guess we will never know the altitude or how low the surface pressure actually went.

#2909 Postby **WilmingtonSandbar** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:04 pm

Couple of shots from SE NC today.

This one is from Carolina Beach, shortly after noon.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

This video is from the Sheriff's helicopter over Calabash, NC. Calabash is just north of Myrtle Beach, SC.

https://www.facebook.com/54090080594181 ... nref=story

#2910 Postby **WPBWeather** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Storm 2 K map above,

Is J a 5 or 4 atm???

Edit: I see it hit Cat 5 at 155mph this afternoon!

AutoPenalti · #2911 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:21 pm

We have our first cat 5 ladies and gentleman.

blp · #2912 Postby **blp** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:23 pm

Twitter on some of the damage in Bahamas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZNSBahamas242

blp · #2913 Postby **blp** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:25 pm

We need LarryWx. Is this the first Cat 5 to form from a non tropical origin?

galaxy401 · #2914 Postby **galaxy401** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:28 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:We have our first cat 5 ladies and gentleman.

blp wrote:We need LarryWx. Is this the first Cat 5 to form from a non tropical origin?

Wait where does it say it's a cat 5?

hurricanekid416 · #2915 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:29 pm

Yea 155 isnt a cat 5

#2916 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:31 pm

The advisory isn't a cat 5, still a cat 4 with the discussion saying weakening today. Live satellite and ADT suggest borderline cat 3/4. Doesn't even have a clear eye anymore.

Hurricane_Luis · #2917 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:32 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:We have our first cat 5 ladies and gentleman.

I'm sure the NHC changed the SSHS so now the Category 4 range is larger by one mph on either direction. Cat 5 now starts at 157 mph. Not unless there has been something released that I haven't seen.

Even if they never changed it. Joaquin would still be a Cat 4 with 155 mph winds.

#2918 Postby **WPBWeather** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:39 pm

Check again guys... they said Cat 5 was hit.

Check: http://www.spaghettimodels.com top right for a start.

#2919 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:47 pm

With the outflow of J streaming into South Carolina, what will the effect be on the low that's supposed to be in SC / NC tomorrow and Monday?

#2920 Postby **JtSmarts** » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:51 pm

The storm2k map is wrong, it always processes a 155mph storm as a Cat 5. Check the NHC site, Joaquin is and has been a 155mph Cat 4 storm, it has to reach 156mph to be considered a cat 5.

ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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