Area just SW of Cape Verde (Is Invest 91L)

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CFLHurricane
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Area just SW of Cape Verde (Is Invest 91L)

#1 Postby CFLHurricane » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:55 am

Noticed a decent swirl going on the MIMIC-TPW.

Anyone have further insight on this?
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cycloneye
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Re: Area just SW of Cape Verde

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:05 pm

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for the
next few days, some slow development is possible next week while the
system moves west or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Image
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#3 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:17 pm

Magic trough pulls this out to sea, yay.
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:49 pm

way too early to know for sure about that trough, but given the time of year the chances are quite high it will recurve if it develops out that far.
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#5 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:03 pm

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
2. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for the
next few days, some slow development is possible next week while the
system moves west or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percen
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#6 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:47 am

GFS and Euro dropped this.
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Re: Area just SW of Cape Verde

#7 Postby TJRE » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:28 pm

Worth another look??
I think so....

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages.html

Image

TPW Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

NHC WV
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:48 pm

I don't see much of a WNW movement of this wave. Looks pretty west to me.

Convection is blowing up but the shear looks high out there at the moment.
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#9 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 08N34W MOVING W AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 25W
AND 45W AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED
AROUND A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 09N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
13N BETWEEN 31W AND 39W.
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Re: Area just SW of Cape Verde

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:44 am

Is Invest 91L
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