Texas Fall-2015

[TheProfessor]

So lately I've been on other forums with people who live closer to me and an interesting comparison came up. Someone went back and looked at previous El Nino Septembers for their city of Detroit. For Detroit this is the first Strong El Nino of 10 to ever have an above normal September for Detroit, originally he had 2009 as a strong El Nino but was then told it was a moderate El Nino. Unfortunately I don't have time to go through and do the same research for Texas cities, but I'll post his data at the bottom of this comment. What does this mean? I'm not sure, perhaps it means this Super El Nino won't be exactly like past Strong and Super El Ninos or maybe September was just a fluke or caused by a different Phenomenon. P.S I don't know how to keep his color coded thing.



"There is always so much concentration on snow...but obviously temps are just as if not more important to discern any trends.



Here is Detroit's temperature data for all El Ninos since the 1870s. Warmer than normal is in red, colder in blue, and temps that were +/- 0.5F of normal are in black.



AVERAGE TEMPS
SEP: 64.4...OCT: 52.4...NOV: 41.5...DEC: 30.1...JAN: 25.6...FEB: 28.1...MAR: 37.2...APR: 49.2



Ironically...the most discernable trend of ANY month in ANY strength Nino is a cooler than normal September during strong Ninos. Yet our dominant cool pattern this year has let up for a September thats on track to be warmer than normal

STRONG EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1877-78 -- 64.3 -- 53.8 -- 39.2 -- 38.1 -- 27.3 -- 29.2 -- 41.3 -- 53.4

1888-89 -- 60.0 -- 46.9 -- 41.4 -- 31.4 -- 29.8 -- 19.4 -- 37.4 -- 46.3

1896-97 -- 59.6 -- 47.6 -- 40.5 -- 30.3 -- 23.0 -- 27.4 -- 34.6 -- 45.2

1899-00 -- 59.7 -- 56.0 -- 42.8 -- 28.7 -- 28.3 -- 21.3 -- 26.3 -- 48.3

1902-03 -- 62.2 -- 52.4 -- 46.9 -- 26.9 -- 24.1 -- 25.6 -- 41.5 -- 46.9

1940-41 -- 62.8 -- 51.1 -- 38.0 -- 32.0 -- 26.3 -- 25.3 -- 30.5 -- 52.6

1957-58 -- 62.9 -- 50.8 -- 41.0 -- 34.1 -- 26.6 -- 22.8 -- 36.3 -- 49.6

1972-73 -- 63.0 -- 47.3 -- 37.4 -- 29.3 -- 28.8 -- 25.3 -- 43.3 -- 48.8

1982-83 -- 61.8 -- 52.5 -- 41.6 -- 37.3 -- 28.7 -- 31.6 -- 38.3 -- 44.2

1991-92 -- 63.1 -- 54.8 -- 38.5 -- 32.1 -- 28.3 -- 30.8 -- 35.5 -- 46.3

1997-98 -- 62.7 -- 51.7 -- 37.1 -- 32.2 -- 32.8 -- 36.7 -- 39.5 -- 50.4



MODERATE EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1911-12 -- 64.2 -- 50.9 -- 35.9 -- 33.9 -- 13.1 -- 18.3 -- 26.4 -- 46.2

1914-15 -- 62.8 -- 56.6 -- 39.7 -- 23.8 -- 23.4 -- 29.9 -- 31.9 -- 52.2

1918-19 -- 57.4 -- 55.5 -- 42.3 -- 36.3 -- 31.0 -- 29.4 -- 36.3 -- 45.9

1925-26 -- 66.1 -- 44.5 -- 38.1 -- 26.9 -- 25.4 -- 25.8 -- 29.0 -- 40.9

1930-31 -- 66.3 -- 51.6 -- 42.0 -- 29.6 -- 28.4 -- 32.8 -- 34.1 -- 48.6

1941-42 -- 67.5 -- 55.2 -- 43.0 -- 35.5 -- 25.8 -- 22.7 -- 38.5 -- 52.9

1965-66 -- 66.2 -- 51.2 -- 42.6 -- 35.9 -- 21.4 -- 28.3 -- 38.3 -- 44.4

1968-69 -- 65.5 -- 53.4 -- 41.0 -- 28.1 -- 23.1 -- 28.3 -- 33.4 -- 49.4

1986-87 -- 65.9 -- 52.6 -- 37.3 -- 31.3 -- 26.1 -- 29.6 -- 39.7 -- 50.8

1994-95 -- 66.2 -- 53.7 -- 45.5 -- 35.4 -- 28.3 -- 24.9 -- 39.1 -- 45.6

2002-03 -- 68.9 -- 50.0 -- 39.2 -- 28.7 -- 20.5 -- 23.1 -- 35.6 -- 48.4

2006-07 -- 62.0 -- 49.7 -- 42.6 -- 37.4 -- 29.6 -- 19.3 -- 40.1 -- 47.7

2009-10 -- 66.0 -- 50.0 -- 45.3 -- 29.3 -- 25.1 -- 27.8 -- 42.4 -- 52.4



WEAK EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1904-05 -- 63.7 -- 50.5 -- 40.1 -- 25.8 -- 20.3 -- 17.9 -- 37.5 -- 44.4

1905-06 -- 65.3 -- 52.1 -- 37.5 -- 31.9 -- 33.6 -- 25.6 -- 28.2 -- 49.2

1923-24 -- 64.0 -- 51.8 -- 40.4 -- 37.7 -- 21.8 -- 25.5 -- 33.7 -- 46.0

1939-40 -- 65.9 -- 52.9 -- 38.9 -- 33.5 -- 19.0 -- 26.7 -- 28.6 -- 42.8

1951-52 -- 62.5 -- 55.4 -- 34.6 -- 28.4 -- 29.3 -- 29.3 -- 34.3 -- 49.5

1953-54 -- 64.7 -- 56.8 -- 44.5 -- 33.6 -- 26.0 -- 33.5 -- 33.5 -- 50.1

1963-64 -- 63.1 -- 62.7 -- 46.0 -- 23.8 -- 30.4 -- 28.9 -- 36.1 -- 49.3

1969-70 -- 64.8 -- 51.4 -- 37.9 -- 26.4 -- 16.6 -- 24.4 -- 32.8 -- 49.3

1976-77 -- 62.1 -- 47.3 -- 33.5 -- 21.5 -- 12.8 -- 25.2 -- 41.4 -- 52.5

1977-78 -- 65.0 -- 47.9 -- 40.5 -- 25.5 -- 19.5 -- 16.3 -- 30.0 -- 45.5

2004-05 -- 67.4 -- 53.3 -- 43.0 -- 29.7 -- 24.1 -- 28.4 -- 33.2 -- 50.7





Some Detroit temp data for Ninos.



This September is clearly going to be a warm September. Not only a surprise in a cool year, but it has literally never before happened in the small sample size that we have that is the strong Nino. The only warm Sept in a borderline strong Nino was 2009, however I was informed that has been officially classified as mod. In that case, there has NOT been a warmer than normal September in the 10 strong Nino events on record since 1877.



Warm Septembers are more common in moderate Ninos however.



Even though there have been 0 warm Septembers in the 10 strong Ninos on record, in the 34 El Nino years of any strength (since 1877), there HAVE been 13 warm Septembers. Those 13 warm Septembers paved the way for a very even split of winters. 5 winters were cold, 5 winters were mild, and 3 were near normal.



If we are just talking a very warm September (nino or not), of the top 20 warmest Septembers on record, 10 of the following winters were colder than normal, 4 were near normal, and 6 were warmer than normal.





In all the years I concentrated on snow data/patterns during Ninos, this is the first year I concentrated on temps. I was shocked to find some of the results, especially how once you take out the infamous winters of 1982-83 & 1997-98, strong Nino does not scream warm winter at all.



Also of interest is how frequently in an El Nino (of any strength) we would see one unusually warm month and one unusually cold month in met winter. In several of the warm winters there was still a very cold month, and in several of the cold winters that was a very mild month. Often times it was Dec that was warm & Feb that was cold, but by no means is that a sure thing.



STRONG EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

2 near normal Falls

8 colder than normal Falls



4 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

4 colder than normal Winters



MODERATE EL NINOS

3 warmer than normal Fall

5 near normal Falls

5 colder than normal Falls



6 warmer than normal Winters

2 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters



WEAK EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

3 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls



3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters



ALL EL NINOS SINCE 1877

7 warmer than normal Falls

8 near normal Falls

20 colder than normal Falls



13 warmer than normal Winters

8 near normal Winters

14 colder than normal Winters

[Ntxw]

Thanks for sharing that TheProfessor! Good stastical analysis. I'm not too familiar with climo up there but that is quite extensive.

The only issue is that I haven't found a good correlation between September temps and winter. Up there the NAO plays a more vital role than down here in Texas.

[Ntxw]

For TPB, the AO is about to tank for October, -3 SD. Big blocking up north which means snow advance is about to grow exponentially. Good sign for the SAI

The greatest snow advance years

1976
1977
2002
2009
2012
2014

[weatherdude1108]

Definitely an east/west dividing high QPF line across the state.

Flip...flop...flip...flop...

[Tireman4]

Great news, all! I just plotted a meteogram for Houston and it shows lows in the 70s and highs in the low-mid 90s next week! Winter appears to have ended.

ha ha ha..you are letting your top ten ranking of your alma mater get to you this early in the day....ha ha ha..

[JDawg512]

I think (more like hope) that it will depend on how much rain falls and over how large of an area that will determine if the ridge returns next week. If we get wide spread 1-3 inches over western and central Texas with some higher amounts then I can't see high pressure returning with 90s.

We may get some temporary ridging but it seems to me that if the ground starts to get more saturated it "should" limit high pressure from building and temps to rise. Having said that I'm constantly reminded of what happened this summer. Still...this is October not July, this is a very powerful El Niño that is going to take over our weather and no ridge is going to be able to withstand it.

My hope is that the models are too bullish on the ridge next week and that come this weekend they will back off.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS is almost as depressing as 0Z regarding rainfall. Ridge of death Jr wants to hang around a while.

[dhweather]

The last 90 degree recorded in 2011 in Heath was October 15th, but we had gotten 1.8" of rain between Oct 1-15, 2011. Upper 80's on the 16th & 17th, then mid 60's on the 18th.

If the GFS verifies, Jul 1 - Oct 15, 2015 will have had about 1.5" less rain than the same time period in 2011. Not as hot as 2011, but drier.


Maybe we need to start insulting El Nino to get it to do something for us about this lack of rain?

[Brent]

Come on October everyone has been hyping this month and now...

[TheProfessor]

Have no fear guys! I'm heading back to Texas on the 15th! And if I'm like my Grandmother where the weather follows her I shall bring cool temps with rain with me!

[weatherdude1108]

It sprinkled on me at work in north Austin around 3pm this afternoon when I went for a walk!! Must be EL NINO!!

[Brent]

Fwiw weatherbug has a front just after the 90s on Monday with temps dropping back towards average and even rain chances at day 10 so hopefully the heat will only be a day or two

[Ptarmigan]

Great news, all! I just plotted a meteogram for Houston and it shows lows in the 70s and highs in the low-mid 90s next week! Winter appears to have ended.

It is Fall and the days are getting shorter.

[Ptarmigan]

Apparently so, 00Z says NO rain and apparently welcomes the ridge of death jr back to town.

http://s5.postimg.org/6cumghxc7/2015_10 ... _51_am.png


edited to correct model run time on chart

The Cockroach Ridge did not get the message. It is Fall, the days are shorter. The El Nino is not the best RAID for it.

[Brent]

I'm starting to think the GFS is on crack... I was noticing earlier it had temps in the mid 90s in Alabama next week... which would shatter records for mid October in most spots... and then I checked weatherbug... which has average temps in the 70s after some low 80s.

Just like here it has a big prolonged heat wave and weatherbug has a much shorter duration. Now we'll see how it trends, weatherbug may well trend warmer... but I found it interesting. I'm not even sure what weatherbug uses as a source... I used to think it was the GFS but clearly not. The Weather Channel app is a bit warmer... but still has a cooldown at the end of the 10 day.

One thing I remember about the GFS meteograms back during the summer too... I would frequently check Alabama's too and it would always have some 100's out around day 7-10 that never came close to verifying...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That massive low south of Alaska, hope thats not what is to come for this winter. The news about the -AO is very positive. Will begin watching for the SAI. I saw Maue posted a tweet about a huge cyclone in W Russia. Didnt say much about Siberia though.

[Brent]

Good grief. What have we done to deserve this? The weather in this state has been HORRIBLE since Bill left tbh, and it started so awesome the first few months I was here. I've been wrong about a lot of things that I thought El Nino would do.

[cheezyWXguy]

That massive low south of Alaska, hope thats not what is to come for this winter. The news about the -AO is very positive. Will begin watching for the SAI. I saw Maue posted a tweet about a huge cyclone in W Russia. Didnt say much about Siberia though.

I'm not sure I'm understanding your post correctly. Are you saying the news about the -AO is good? or that the AO is very positive? Also, what does this cyclone in western Russia mean for us?

[TheProfessor]

That massive low south of Alaska, hope thats not what is to come for this winter. The news about the -AO is very positive. Will begin watching for the SAI. I saw Maue posted a tweet about a huge cyclone in W Russia. Didnt say much about Siberia though.

I'm not sure I'm understanding your post correctly. Are you saying the news about the -AO is good? or that the AO is very positive? Also, what does this cyclone in western Russia mean for us?

I read somewhere that the Cyclone should help advance snow even faster for Siberia, which I think helps advance snow for Alaska and Canada, I'm not sure about that though.

[gboudx]

Even the DFW NWS is tired of this weather.

LOOKING BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE EXTENDED MODELS DO MOVE THE CUT
OFF LOW NORTHWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND EVENTUALLY MERGE IT WITH A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIED IT WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS
ABOUT 12 DAYS OUT FROM NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL BUT ONE CAN DREAM.