Texas Fall-2015

[wxman57]

Fall doesn't get much better than this. Here's a 10-day meteogram for Houston from the 6Z GFS:

[JDawg512]

If things continue the way they have been going I'm just gonna throw out the historical analogs because it's not looking like this will end up affecting us the way most Niño's do at least for the short term. I still hope maybe the GFS is overdoing the low retrograding so soon but as the DFW NWS so elequently put it "Only time will tell but one can dream".

[Ntxw]

That is discouraging, especially now that the AO is tanking. Makes you wonder if those warm nino winter analogs where the US is flooded with warmth might happen. Anyway its going to be tough for many of us watching west Texas get oodles of rain but barely a drop in the eastern half

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That massive low south of Alaska, hope thats not what is to come for this winter. The news about the -AO is very positive. Will begin watching for the SAI. I saw Maue posted a tweet about a huge cyclone in W Russia. Didnt say much about Siberia though.

I'm not sure I'm understanding your post correctly. Are you saying the news about the -AO is good? or that the AO is very positive? Also, what does this cyclone in western Russia mean for us?

-AO is very good for us. Good sign for the winter. Well, i wasnt sure. Professor cleared it up for us a bit though. The cyclone is in western Russia so it is a good bit away from Siberia. We would like alot of snow this month in Siberia though. Good sign for our winter if they have lots of snow early there.

[Ntxw]

-AO is very good for us. Good sign for the winter. Well, i wasnt sure. Professor cleared it up for us a bit though. The cyclone is in western Russia so it is a good bit away from Siberia. We would like alot of snow this month in Siberia though. Good sign for our winter if they have lots of snow early there.

A -AO in October usually signals some kind of a cold intrusion especially with the -EPO right now negative. I don't get why the models are showing record warmth. Either they are on to it and scoring a coup or they are nuts

Within 7 days they show above normal temperatures, but they keep showing record warmth 7-10 days

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The warm water off of Mexico seems to be affecting us as well. 5H keeps popping up there. Something im not sure how to react to lol.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

-AO is very good for us. Good sign for the winter. Well, i wasnt sure. Professor cleared it up for us a bit though. The cyclone is in western Russia so it is a good bit away from Siberia. We would like alot of snow this month in Siberia though. Good sign for our winter if they have lots of snow early there.

A -AO in October usually signals some kind of a cold intrusion especially with the -EPO right now negative. I don't get why the models are showing record warmth. Either they are on to it and scoring a coup or they are nuts

Yeah i saw the projected tanking of the AO but couldnt really tell in the models. Strange.

[Ntxw]

Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972

[Ralph's Weather]

This sure has been a strange early Fall season weather wise. I am still fairly confident that the teles will win out in the end and we should have a good winter. Before that though hope we get some rain, but who knows at this point. -EPO and -AO plus record El Nino is a a combo we don't seem to have an understanding of at this point. I expect that as the month goes on the snowpack will build to our north and by around Halloween maybe we can get a recurving typhoon to kick the polar jet into winter mode.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972

1972 huh...... Thats not a terrible sign.

[Ntxw]

Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972

1972 huh...... Thats not a terrible sign.

It's just weird to me, especially now with Choi Wan (large typhoon) in the WPAC re-curving. Common logic says cooler in 7-10 days not record heat. Anyway BEST (multivariate) index for the Nino Aug/Sept came in at 2.92, that beats 1997-1998 and would be the strongest Nino event in almost 200+ years! There is no event that tops this one to date

[weatherdude1108]

The flip flop seems to be trending to one side. Why on Earth is the ULL retrograding back into Mexico??? I don't think I have ever seen that this time of year.

Why is the death cockroach inferno ridge having this much of an influence given time-of-year climatology and current ENSO conditions?????? I am SO LOST.

[Ntxw]

Why is the death cockroach inferno ridge having this much of an influence given time-of-year climatology and current ENSO conditions?????? I am SO LOST.

We tongue in cheek comment the ridge of death, but it isn't the cause. It is the gulf of Alaska trough or extension of the Aleutian low being too strong eastward. This floods the US with warmth. While that is warm for us, up north it is even warmer relative to average. So if you are not underneath the ULL and cool rain you are heating up with everyone else

For instance take Fargo, North Dakota. They could be seeing blizzards and hard freezes in October but it's going to push 80! And the GFS has them in the 85-88 range

[cheezyWXguy]

Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972

1972 huh...... Thats not a terrible sign.

It's just weird to me, especially now with Choi Wan (large typhoon) in the WPAC re-curving. Common logic says cooler in 7-10 days not record heat. Anyway BEST (multivariate) index for the Nino Aug/Sept came in at 2.92, that beats 1997-1998 and would be the strongest Nino event in almost 200+ years! There is no event that tops this one to date

If it's any consolation, this is what the Ft Worth AFD had to say about the long-term this morning:

Looking beyond this forecast...the extended models do move the cut
off low northward late next week and eventually merge it with a
Pacific northwest short wave. If this solution verified it would
have the potential to bring rain chances back to North Texas
about 12 days out from now. Only time will tell but one can dream.

Pretty mediocre given how far out it is, but it's something I guess. It really is strange considering what you mentioned, along with the combination of the -AO/-EPO. Maybe it means the upcoming heat wave will be cut shorter than the models are suggesting?

[TheProfessor]

Why is the death cockroach inferno ridge having this much of an influence given time-of-year climatology and current ENSO conditions?????? I am SO LOST.

We tongue in cheek comment the ridge of death, but it isn't the cause. It is the gulf of Alaska trough or extension of the Aleutian low being too strong eastward. This floods the US with warmth. While that is warm for us, up north it is even warmer relative to average. So if you are not underneath the ULL and cool rain you are heating up with everyone else

For instance take Fargo, North Dakota. They could be seeing blizzards and hard freezes in October but it's going to push 80! And the GFS has them in the 85-88 range

It might be well above average for people used to Ohio weather but 70-75degrees with 2-3 days of rain a week is mighty fine with me for this time of year.Last Saturday was 45 degrees with rain though and I was in work out clothes. We had Joaquin to thank for that. That dang storm was holding the trough over us for about 4 days. I appreciate the rain we got though.

[TheProfessor]

5 of the last 6 GFS runs have had a tropical system move from the Caribbean to Western Atlantic, it might just be a Ghost storm, but if there were to be a Trough closer to Texas, perhaps it can hold it there for you guys so you can get rain with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: 5 of the last 6 GFS runs have had a tropical system move from the Caribbean to Western Atlantic, it might just be a Ghost storm, but if there were to be a Trough closer to Texas, perhaps it can hold it there for you guys so you can get rain with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

We gave up on the Atlantic a long time ago in Texas. Outside of June, the gulf and carib hasn't done much for us in many years hoping. The rainfall events here usually comes from the Pacific side. Stuff that forms in the gulf/carib almost always gets pulled up northeast through the northern or eastern gom. Since 2008 (Ike) the only effecting storm I can recall (other than Bill this year) was Hermine but even she was a crossover from the EPAC.

Florida has a 10 year streak going of no hurricane hits. Texas isn't far behind with 7 years going

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: 5 of the last 6 GFS runs have had a tropical system move from the Caribbean to Western Atlantic, it might just be a Ghost storm, but if there were to be a Trough closer to Texas, perhaps it can hold it there for you guys so you can get rain with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

We gave up on the Atlantic a long time ago in Texas. Outside of June, the gulf and carib hasn't done much for us in many years hoping. The rainfall events here usually comes from the Pacific side. Stuff that forms in the gulf/carib almost always gets pulled up northeast through the northern or eastern gom. Since 2008 (Ike) the only effecting storm I can recall (other than Bill this year) was Hermine but even she was a crossover from the EPAC.

Florida has a 10 year streak going of no hurricane hits. Texas isn't far behind with 7 years going

What I meant is that if another strong Hurricane enters the Atlantic it can work as a blocking system like Joaquin, if the trough were further west(which would mean a inland hit) then the storm would force the trough to sit over the same area for a few days until the storm moved out, add in a low from the west and you can have multiple days of rain with a trough over you like we did here in Ohio.

[Ntxw]

What I meant is that if another strong Hurricane enters the Atlantic it can work as a blocking system like Joaquin, if the trough were further west(which would mean a inland hit) then the storm would force the trough to sit over the same area for a few days until the storm moved out, add in a low from the west and you can have multiple days of rain with a trough over you like we did here in Ohio.

I get what you're saying . Sadly it doesn't work the same way here, a storm in the gulf brings subsidence aloft to Texas unless it is a direct hit. A sitting trough SW flow aloft there is from the GOM, a sitting trough here is from the deserts of Mexico (unless there is an EPAC hurricane feeding it). The current 500mb low is parked to the west of Texas, it was supposed or at least I thought, would be further east to bring the same pattern rains as you guys but the models says it retrogrades so just southern rockies and far W Texas.

What we need is an EPAC re-curve directly into the west coast of Mexico, bad for them but good for us.

[TheProfessor]

What I meant is that if another strong Hurricane enters the Atlantic it can work as a blocking system like Joaquin, if the trough were further west(which would mean a inland hit) then the storm would force the trough to sit over the same area for a few days until the storm moved out, add in a low from the west and you can have multiple days of rain with a trough over you like we did here in Ohio.

I get what you're saying . Sadly it doesn't work the same way here, a storm in the gulf brings subsidence aloft to Texas unless it is a direct hit. A sitting trough SW flow aloft there is from the GOM, a sitting trough here is from the deserts of Mexico (unless there is an EPAC hurricane feeding it). The current 500mb low is parked to the west of Texas, it was supposed or at least I thought, would be further east to bring the same pattern rains as you guys but the models says it retrogrades so just southern rockies and far W Texas.

What we need is an EPAC re-curve directly into the west coast of Mexico, bad for them but good for us.

Ah Ok, well hopefully an EPAC storm can develop. soon then.