Texas Fall-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

From the twittersphere

[img]http://s5.postimg.org/y248kq39j/2015_10_06_02_05_3 1_pm.png[/img]

I'm about done taking models seriously beyond 5 days out... maybe they'll be wrong with the heat. Certainly were wrong with the rain...

I personally trust the Euro 10 days out. Yeah that looks to be more of an East based cold front. Not right down the spine of the rockies like we like it.

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't a vortex that far east in Canada mean a glancing blow of cold for North Texas? If any cold at all. Or at least make it very progressive where it doesn't last long.

It's nothing earth shattering, just something you would expect more from October with colder intrusions. It would make more sense with the -AO dive. It's still a 10 day map.

[weatherdude1108]

This heavy rain/cooler forecast went from elation to BUST. One of the local weathercasters today even said you rarely see a low go away to the southwest. Usually it progresses to the east fairly quickly.

The trend is not our friend. Maybe the larger forces at work will cooperate and the models will flip flop tonight and give us that "hope springs eternal" feeling once again. One can dream anyway.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 061938
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
YESTERDAY...THE UPPER LOW WAS FORECASTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
NOW SHIFTED WEST AND HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOT EVEN MAKING
IT TO THE SAME LONGITUDE OF EL PASO. ALSO...THE COLD FRONT THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO COME SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT IS NOW DELAYED UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT
THIS MEANS IS SMALLER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE RIO GRANDE COUNTIES. THIS LOCATION...FOR NOW...WILL STILL
BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW FOR DYNAMICAL UPPER SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA SOME 20-30
PERCENT. WITHOUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COINCIDING WITH THE PEAK
LIFT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING SOME SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ONLY KEEP THE THREAT
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN AREAS.

WITH THE LOW NOT MAKING IT AS FAR EAST....RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END
A BIT SOONER AND HAVE RAIN ENDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO TEXAS
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL EQUATE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL.

[dhweather]

gloom and doom



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE
COOL IN MOST PLACES...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SOME
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ARIZONA
CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST THIS
WEEKEND. PREVIOUSLY...WE HAD BEEN MONITORING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
FOR POTENTIALLY BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION BUT WITH THE LOW NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35/35W. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WE LIKELY WILL SEE GENERIC
SHOWERS/STORMS WITHOUT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL. ON FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS REPLACED BY
WEAK TROUGHING FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80S AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

[weatherdude1108]

So 1972 is our best analog for what is going on now with this Nino? Just trying to get an idea of what to expect.

[JDawg512]

So 1972 is our best analog for what is going on now with this Nino? Just trying to get an idea of what to expect.

At this point I wouldn't trust any analogs.

I'm done with them and the models for awhile until we see some good consistency. I have put my new Halloween avatar pic up and now will try to cope as best I can for the next couple of weeks.

[Brent]

gloom and doom

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80S AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

October would be great they said.

Just wait til October they said.

I'm starting to have flashbacks of Atlantic hurricane seasons now.



As for the analogs or long-range model noise... I take it with a grain of salt at this point. Nothing has been consistent.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So 1972 is our best analog for what is going on now with this Nino? Just trying to get an idea of what to expect.

I wouldnt say its the best yet. There are a number of different analogs for this coming winter. Some of them vastly different then others.

[dhweather]

I'm beginning to think we are going to get stuck with a warm dry winter. I'll wait a few weeks before punting though.

[gboudx]

You think we're gonna have a La Nina winter with a strong El Nino? Has that happened before? Just curious.

[Ntxw]

You think we're gonna have a La Nina winter with a strong El Nino? Has that happened before? Just curious.

It has never happened before. The process that creates a warm winter creates precipitation even discounting ENSO. Cold and dry or warm and wet, the mechanism is the opposite of summer. If it is warm then the air is easier to lift over cooler air.

For example 2011-2012 was very warm, but one of the wettest. Warm air holds more moisture. 500mb vorticity (lift) is stronger in winter thus it can ring out much more rain from very little precipitable water

[Portastorm]

I'm beginning to think we are going to get stuck with a warm dry winter. I'll wait a few weeks before punting though.

Sadly, you are more apt to be correct by forecasting this every winter season for Texas. Seems like the new norm.

I believe we will see Nino conditions with better precip opportunities by late October. Of course, I also believe in Santa Claus and Bigfoot.

[Ntxw]

I'm beginning to think we are going to get stuck with a warm dry winter. I'll wait a few weeks before punting though.

Sadly, you are more apt to be correct by forecasting this every winter season for Texas. Seems like the new norm.

I believe we will see Nino conditions with better precip opportunities by late October. Of course, I also believe in Santa Claus and Bigfoot.

Except the past two seasons. We've had these predictions prematurely only to end up otherwise.

[Ntxw]

Euro ENS do support height rises over western Canada in the time frame OP euro has an amplified pattern. With the -AO maybe there is hope after the warm up. At least Euro was the first to sniff out the early month front maybe this is another case

[Brent]

I'm beginning to think we are going to get stuck with a warm dry winter. I'll wait a few weeks before punting though.

I refuse to believe that. I've done climo back to the 70s and it never stays hot and dry even into November, and this year has an el nino.

The pattern has to flip.

Of course... I also thought the last 2 fronts would end summer and that it would rain on Thursday/Friday...

[South Texas Storms]

It sure is frustrating to be seeing hot and dry weather in the forecast over the next week, especially since the models showed rain and cooler temperatures across much of the state later this week just a few days ago. But the pattern will likely change during the second half of this month as the westerlies shift southward and the El Nino pattern finally begins across the region.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You see that little ridge on the ENS map? Will that play a consistent factor in our weather? Maybe shifting westward would be better for us, but over the top of us could be pretty rude. Maybe that will be a part of us till the new year like in '72? Anything on the analogs to show why they were so dry till Jan? Just throwing out ideas.

[Brent]

Well the 18z GFS does have rain... beyond 276 hours.

Until then... it's the return of summer. 98 on Monday at DFW. Record high is 97. 96 on Tuesday... record high is also 97.

[gboudx]

Here's an update from Steve McCauley. Brent, looks like he's on board with the upper 90s next week. Yuck.

Both models agree that summer is coming back with a vengeance. We will be in the 90s for the next few days with a brief and slight cooling for the weekend, but we all head back deep into the 90s next week. If we are not careful, the thermometer will be approaching (but perhaps not quite reaching) 100°F by next Monday. Make it stop!

We are in hopes that the effects of El Nino will kick in for the winter! Remember, El Nino typically does not have significant effects in north Texas for most of the fall season. The effects are overwhelmingly a cold season (i.e., winter) phenomenon, so do not think that just because our temperatures will be well above normal, and we will be going deeper into drought conditions that El Nino has somehow failed us. It hasn't even had the chance to get started!

Also, I notice that a lot of folks interpret the "cooler and wetter" forecast for this winter as meaning it's going to be brutally cold with lots of snow. That is not the case. El Nino tends to PREVENT severe arctic air outbreaks or at least limit their numbers and duration. This means that cold air outbreaks are certainly possible, but they should be few and far between.
"Wetter than normal" could just mean abundant cold rain. It does NOT necessarily mean lots of snow, but we can certainly have that, too. Remember, the difference between a cold rain and a crippling snow storm can be one degree on the thermometer. There is no way to forecast which side of that one-degree we will be on for most of this winter. Some of our heaviest snows have indeed occurred during El Nino winters. But there have also been El Nino winters when little to no snow fell at all!

[weatherdude1108]

I just can't see upper 90s with the lower sun angle this time of year. Then again, this has been a weird year.