2015 Global model runs discussion

[blp]

12z Euro is similar to the Canadian. Pushes a weak low into the Epac. Too much land interaction to allow anything to get going.

We have seen this before. The Gfs stands alone run after run after run only to end up being wrong. Unless other models joing the Gfs, its hard to take it seriously. Lets see what the models show tomorrow.


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Actually the 12Z Euro has a broad low over the Yucatan. If you look at that pattern, had it developed this area over Western Caribbean like the GFS it probably would get pulled N then NE similar to the GFS.

[]http://i.imgur.com/F4ih3Th.gif[/img]

Gatorcane that is exactly what I was thinking that trough should pull it out and might leave it behind over water. The Euro is starting to bite. Remember Euro not the best with genesis. I trust the Euro once we get something going.

[WeatherEmperor]

Gator, my apologies you are correct on the Euro this is what I get for using my iPhone for looking at maps


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[gatorcane]

There is an area in the SW Caribbean also - this is not the area that might develop but it is showing that moisture and rising air are on the increase down there gradually.

[gatorcane]

Posting CMC ensembles again so they don't get lost on the previous page:

[ronjon]

Good article on why the GFS performs so poorly compared to the Euro. Looks like data initialization is the big difference. So while the physics of the GFS code might be correct, if the data going into it is incomplete than it could be leading to more forecast busts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/hurricane-joaquin-forecast-european-model-leads-pack-again.html?_r=0

[Alyono]

another misleading article by non scientists sticking their nose into something they are unqualified to discuss

the article fails to mention that the EC was the first model to forecast an east Coast hurricane landfall. Also, the previously laughable forecasts it has made this year.

As I said, it will be better in the 2-4 year time frame. I am VERY confident on this. But it is not currently superior. This "journalist" cherry picked an example.

This is not to say MU is superior. It has other issues regarding data assimilation

[Kingarabian]

Good article on why the GFS performs so poorly compared to the Euro. Looks like data initialization is the big difference. So while the physics of the GFS code might be correct, if the data going into it is incomplete than it could be leading to more forecast busts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/hurricane-joaquin-forecast-european-model-leads-pack-again.html?_r=0

That's so funny to hear considering the U.S.A is the one providing Recon and G-IV surveillance missions. Doubt it's a data problem. Data is abundant as ever and I'm pretty sure every model gets the same data.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I posted an article about performance of models from Dr. Jeff Masters. I think its about 16 posts up on this site. Good read.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 just mentioned a few models have something developing next week in the Caribbean. Some models have it entering near Tampa.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS hits South Florida just a couple of days before the 10-year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma in a Wilma-like track:

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS(Give Florida Something) must of heard the 10yr. anniversary was coming up!

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: The GFS(Give Florida Something) must of heard the 10yr. anniversary was coming up!

Haha good one. Perhaps the GFS wants to redeem itself for all of the phantom storms and hits it has had on Florida on October since.

18Z GFS Ensembles are coming out. There are some ensembles showing low pressure forming in the SW Caribbean as early as 120 hours from now. Timeframe is coming in.

[WPBWeather]

JB says EC shows something now.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles at 156 hours:


18Z GFS Ensembles at 204 hours:

[blp]

The 18z is more like Get Florida Scared. Well it is certainly out their now. Either finish with a bang or another major bust. We will see.

I also saw a good uptick in the MJO forecast so that might explain it being more aggressive now. Euro also came in slightly stronger with its MJO.

[ronjon]

Good article on why the GFS performs so poorly compared to the Euro. Looks like data initialization is the big difference. So while the physics of the GFS code might be correct, if the data going into it is incomplete than it could be leading to more forecast busts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/hurricane-joaquin-forecast-european-model-leads-pack-again.html?_r=0

That's so funny to hear considering the U.S.A is the one providing Recon and G-IV surveillance missions. Doubt it's a data problem. Data is abundant as ever and I'm pretty sure every model gets the same data.

If you read the article you'll make a more educated statement. The data issue regards the use by the Euro of satellite data for wide swaths of the ocean where there is no data collection. And it's pretty funny that when we started collecting GIV data, the GFS changed its tune and went OTS with Joaquin.

[blp]

CFS last three runs is showing the system. Not strong. I like the CFS for pattern recognition

[blp]

Levi Cowan
Levi Cowan – ‏@TropicalTidbits

Interesting flip in the Atlantic coming by end of the month as MJO begins to amplify again. Watch west Carib. & GOM

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GEFS has 16 of 20 members with a weak sfc low in the W Caribbean on 10/15 between 1004 and 1008 mb. Just fwiw as this is still well beyond high confidence range considering the crying wolf tendencies of the GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

What's shear like currently?