2015 Global model runs discussion

Hurricaneman · #1361 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:21 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:What's shear like currently?

10kts east of Belieze and 20kts elsewhere in the SW Caribbean so not killer but anything would be slow to develop in that enviornment but the shear could change to more destructive or could temporarily subside and this option would be possibly scary for the Gulf Coast, Cuba, and Florida which is what the GFS has been saying and it seems as though the other models are coming over to the GFS but not fully yet

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#1362 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:46 pm

Too early to assess how shear will be 10-12 days from now. Climatology this time of year does suggest that Western/Northwestern Caribbean region is the prime area to watch. I am waiting a few more days before taking a closer look at the models. It is hard to really hone in on the models for me until we get within 7-10 days of a potential development. I think early next week (Oct 11-13) will be the telling period if we see the potential for development down in the NW Caribbean.

#1363 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:52 pm

Fwiw, the 0Z GFS is the least impressive of at least the last four runs by far as it has very little through hour 288.

Hurricaneman · #1364 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:56 pm

LarryWx wrote:Fwiw, the 0Z GFS is the least impressive of at least the last four runs by far as it has very little through hour 288.

Looks as though it goes over Central America causing no development on this run I'm interested to see the Euro take on this possible system

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#1365 Postby **chaser1** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:00 am

Also curious to see if the latest GEFS has deviated all that much or if the 0Z GFS showing later term development and then a more NW trek across Yucatan and into the S. Gulf, was an indication of a large split between the ensemble members. Either way though, I'm not really going to read all that much into one single GFS run... as least no more than I was eyeing these several previous GFS runs beyond considering a W. Caribbean system as a reasonable possibility. Like others before me have mentioned, I'd be cautious to outright expect development at least until we start seeing the other models to really start latching on. I'm going to guess that for at least the next few EURO runs, proximity to land (among other possible factors) will likely inhibit it from getting overly enthusiastic regarding the disturbance.

None of this is to suggest that I don't think anytbing will ever form down there, but that at minimum we're probably dealing with one of those monsoonal blobs and they are usually not all that quick to develop. Also, for these late season Caribbean systems, I tend to pay a bit more attention to the 850mb flow maps and forecasts (rather than the surface/10 meter level), just to get a better handle on which side of Central America does the general circulation appear to be at or expanding towards. I just find that the surface maps this far out, have too hard of a time with depicting cyclogenesis in an environment where surface pressures are so low already (and over such a large area.

#1366 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:06 am

GFS basically insisting on a storm in the CPAC within a week.

#1367 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:42 am

Neither the 0Z Euro nor the 6Z GFS has a W Caribbean low that subsequently comes north and threatens the US with a TC. It is still way too early to make the call on that one way or the other.

#1368 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:30 am

There is still a lot of GFS ensemble support on both the 00Z and 06Z run for a Western Caribbean system in the long-range, most showing solutions that go N or NE out of the Caribbean. It's just a wait and see at this point.

#1369 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:53 am

The 00Z UKMET is showing a 1009MB low in the SW Caribbean in 144 hours:

#1370 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:59 am

The 12Z CMC is now developing this. It moves it west into the Yucatan:

The 12Z GFS is showing a low too but weaker and it also moves into the Yucatan. Seems like the models are picking up on a strong ridge over the Gulf in the long-range keeping it south.

Not sure I buy a strong ridge given the time of year but we'll see:

#1371 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:51 pm

MU also has this in the GOM

#1372 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:00 pm

Alyono wrote:MU also has this in the GOM

It does in like 14-15 days time. First it showed Florida getting hit around the 20th now it has the system just sitting and spinning near the Yucatan in the 24th. Not buying it

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#1373 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:21 pm

Classic phantom model storm. Not impossible that something could develop, but it is unlikely.

Weatherwatcher98 · #1374 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:41 pm

With fronts coming down this month watching closely on the Central west coast

#1375 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:12 pm

The 12Z ECMWF shows a pretty big 500MB ridge across the Western and Central Caribbean late next week. If that happens, there would not be any development as the moisture and convection would get shoved into Central America as it depicts.

#1376 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:21 pm

Development becoming more unlikely though not impossible. Could this be the beginning of the end of the Season?

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#1377 Postby **psyclone** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:21 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Development becoming more unlikely though not impossible. Could this be the beginning of the end of the Season?

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yes it could. seasons often shut down early during a strong el nino. Florida folks are likely to see plenty of weather excitement but it will likely be from the amped subtropical jet later this winter rather than late season tropical action. Nevertheless we watch..but the odds are against development.

CourierPR · #1378 Postby **CourierPR** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:31 pm

Folks, I wouldn't be so quick to lower the curtain on this season. In fact, Met. Joe Bastardi says the season may not be over.

#1379 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:46 pm

12Z GEFS Mean MSLP at 240 hours:

#1380 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:21 pm

The ECMWF ensembles appear to be showing lower and lower pressure each run around the Southern Gulf, Yucatan and NW Caribbean area extending into the EPAC, in the long-range: