2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Latest EURO hinting of another tropical storm right behind Choi-wan near the dateline. It moves it into the CPAC, strengthens it big time over there and likely might recurve it back into the WPAC although it isn't depicted yet.

CMC also develops this system.

UPDATE:

00Z GFS also starting to hint of Champi west of the dateline and develops it into a monster 957 mb typhoon as it recurves out to the Pacific.

UPDATE: Latest at 926pm local time

06Z GFS even stronger on Champi, peaks it at 928 mb but luckily it recurves.

[euro6208]

00Z EURO still insist of developing Koppu west of the dateline.

[euro6208]

06Z GFS even more active. It develops 2 more systems, Koppu, Champi, near the dateline with possibly a visit from the CPAC, a hurricane.

It peaks Champi as a Category 5 recurving east of the Marianas while the first system Koppu doesn't do much also recurves but weak...

[euro6208]

2015 is remarkably almost identical to 1997 but more active in the MT category.

Here is the stats as we head into October for both years.

1997:

24 TS
15 TY
8 MT
6 Cat 5

2015:

24 ts
15 ty
11 potential 12
5 Cat 5 potential 6

If Dujuan becomes a MT and a Cat 5, 2015 would be at 12 and 6.

I wonder if 2015 can keep on pace. This is how 1997 ended.

Dujuan made it to MT alright but failed to make it to a Cat 5 operationally. Maybe a post season upgrade? Data supported it...

Well currently, 2015 is now behind by one Cat 5 compared to 1997.

1997 developed three 5's in October alone including Keith which formed in the month but peaked in Nov...

[euro6208]

Long year ahead for WPAC residents...

[euro6208]

EURO getting more bullish on future Koppu. It develops it into a TS, passes it over the CNMI north of Saipan and seems to be a threat to the Philippines.



Right behind it is developing Champi...

[dexterlabio]

GFS was the first to show this, though we know Euro is restricted to 10 days out. However GFS is trending towards a weaker system rather than a typhoon.

[euro6208]

Ohhhhhh GFS.

For the past runs had 3 significant TC's developing, 2 of them typhoons threatening the Marianas, Philippines, and China. Now latest run 06Z only shows 1 system, Koppu, in the SCS after it makes landfall over Luzon as a weak system...

[euro6208]

Latest EURO is weaker on Koppu and a bit stronger on Champi. Both seems to be doing a fujiwhara as they cross the Marianas.

GFS no longer develops Koppu and doesn't develop anything for the next 384 hours.

[euro6208]

Looking like 2015 is losing to 1997.

EURO barely develops the twins now as it crosses the Marianas and GFS has been hinting of something in one run strengthening majorly after it crosses Luzon and makes landfall near Hong Kong and the other run shows only a weak TS coming ashore.

[euro6208]

Very dangerous time of year with nino ongoing.

The most likely area for TC development during the next two weeks is the West Pacific from 10-20N and near the Date Line west to 130E. Moderate confidence is depicted for weeks 1 and 2 due to uncertainty on the timing of TC development the West Pacific.

[euro6208]

EURO again developing Champi and In-fa in a vigorous monsoon trough that also includes 08C which might get the name Koppu near the Philippines.

[euro6208]

00Z EURO has Koppu making landfall as a typhoon over Luzon and is a huge threat to Hainan/Vietnam as a strengthening system.

The run still trying to develop struggling Champi and In-fa.

[euro6208]

GFS barely develops the Phantom Koppu keeps it very weak.

It also hints of Champi crossing the Northern Marianas.

[dexterlabio]

AT first I thought the Euro and GFS are going on opposite sides just like with Hurricane Joaquin. But looking closely, in 96 hours Euro is forecasting an already developed TS west of the northern Marianas island chain..whereas the GFS is also showing an area of low pressure near the same area but is very weak. Euro has it making landfall in Luzon while the GFS has a very weak tropical disturbance crossing Central Philippines. In this case both are almost the same track-wise, but the GFS is not expecting an organized system.



To note though, the Euro solution looks odd for a typhoon in a classic El Nino period. The track is more like in a classic La Nina with cyclones tracking west to southwestwards.

[euro6208]

Here is Koppu or Champi at peak intensity after cross the NMI, much weaker than previous runs which had it at a low of 930's before racing off to the north northeast.



Super long range 384 hours shows Champi or In-fa approaching the southern Marianas...

[euro6208]

Huge rain mass headed to the Marianas as the remnants of 08C struggles. Little to no model support here with EURO and GFS recurving this...More rain on the way.

[euro6208]

With a huge WWB commencing, I'm very surprised the models keep the basin totally quiet except for a few disturbances and weak tropical systems.

At this time in 1997, we are about to track twin 160 knots category 5 super typhoons.

Even the most active typhoon season, 1964, was on full blown mode at this time.

2015 is losing although it did break many records.

[euro6208]

During Week-2, a moderate potential for tropical cyclogenesis remains over the western Pacific basin, with models indicating a potential for two systems: one on a recurving track well south of Japan, and another potential system forming just east of the Philippines.

[euro6208]

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