Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

12Z GFS - more of the same

http://s5.postimg.org/4kajuimmf/2015_10 ... _36_pm.png

But note the sub-30F dewpoints by next Wednesday. More of a Pacific front. And nearly .02" of rain over the next 10 days.

Break out the boats!

Why does the GFS keep showing nothing promising within 10 days? Ughhhh.

[TarrantWx]

IT'S RAINING!

[dhweather]

12Z GFS - more of the same

http://s5.postimg.org/4kajuimmf/2015_10 ... _36_pm.png

But note the sub-30F dewpoints by next Wednesday. More of a Pacific front. And nearly .02" of rain over the next 10 days.

But that .02" - WOW!

[wxman57]

But that .02" - WOW!

I said "nearly" .02"...

[Tireman4]

Fall is coming. Brace for it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

San Antonio, im here for a conference today and tomorrow. You can thank me for the sprinkles you received this morning.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD



A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY. WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WE ARE MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE SETUP FOR
REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER 90S AND A NEW RECORD HIGH ARE LIKELY FOR
WACO (CURRENT RECORD IS 95 IN 1954). HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOW 90S FOR THE METROPLEX
REGION...BUT THIS IS SENSITIVE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING. IF THE FRONT
WERE TO COME IN A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...UPPER
90S WOULD BE POSSIBLE (DFW RECORD HIGH IS 97 IN 1979). WILL
RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES MONDAY EVENING WHERE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION.




TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE BIG CHANGE WILL
BE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT
RADIATION COOLING NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS EACH NIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST WITH SOME 40S LIKELY IN OUTLYING AREAS. HOWEVER HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...REBOUNDING TO NEAR
90 FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.

[Brent]

Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Well there's hints of fall at least for a few hours. Fall in the morning... summer in the afternoon...

[weatherdude1108]

May be some thunderstorm action overnight Monday(?). But then dewpoints in the 20s and 30s?? Dewpoints that low are hardly indicative of typical Fall El Nino weather in Texas. We need the Pacific moisture to take over ASAP.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A DEEPER
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN NEAR LOCK STEP
WITH EACH OTHER INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EARLIER OR LATER COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF TSTORM STRENGTH. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OVERALL SET UP
WOULD NOT FAVOR A FLOODING OR SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED
20-30% TSTORM CHANCES AND WILL MONITOR TIMING/PARAMETER TRENDS.

DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S-30S WHICH
WOULD DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
FOR NORTH HALF AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THOSE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. PWATS WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS FALL
SEASON WITH READINGS BELOW 0.3" IN THE NORTH. THIS LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am on board with the idea of a late month flip. Right now the cold/snow is loading up and as soon as the GoA lows let up a bit we should get some of it. Maybe we get another 1993 with a bit of frozen precip and a couple freezes though that October was pretty normal with some rain and highs between 65 and 85 most of the month before the cold shot.

[Ralph's Weather]

Cloudy and breezy here, maybe there is hope of a sprinkle yet.

[Brent]

GFS has a tiny ray of hope for rain south of the metroplex with the Monday fropa... maybe it'll fire up 6 hours earlier.

[Ntxw]

On the bright side, looks like the record highs the models were predicting isn't happening (94-97). Seems like they overdid it. It will be well above normal but upper 80s to low 90s isn't record territory. So warmest day Sun/Mon, cool off a bit tuesday then stay around 87-90 the rest of the week. Beyond that models diverge. Dewpoints will be quite low so actual feel will be a bit lower than the temps. Still looks dry.

Relative to normal the apex of this warmth will be in the northern plains. Who will hit 90 first? DFW or Lincoln Nebraska? Normal high for DFW is around 80, for Lincoln is 68

[Brent]

I'm a little optimistic that Monday may be the last 90-degree day for the entire area... at least north and northeast of Dallas it seems like temps only get back to the upper 80s before the next front next weekend, still not good but not horrible either.

Next weekend looks much closer to average... also. CMC is cooler than the GFS.

Now if we could just get some solid rain chances:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT STILL LOWS WILL
BENEFIT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RANGE FROM THE MID
50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT BY MORNING RESULTING IN
STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER 90S ARE FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN IF THEY WERE TO GO
WESTERLY. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING
TO NEAR 30 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE
TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BRINGING
IT INTO THE NW ZONES BY MIDDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING IT SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS LIKELY...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF
DOWN SLOPE WARMING SHOULD PUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH THE RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT WACO IN JEOPARDY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
WHICH MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY
EVENING WHERE THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LOW
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH
SOME QPF WEDNESDAY OVER THE REGION AS IT DEVELOPS SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT LINGERS A LOT OF 850MB
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY FRONT WHICH IS WHY IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS TO KEEP THE FORECAST SUNNY AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT LOW TEMPS WILL STAY
GENERALLY COOL AND IN THE 50S AND 60S AS FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING PARAMETERS REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT THAN
THE GFS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE VERY
NOTEWORTHY EITHER...AS IT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OR AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL.

[Brent]

18z GFS has a massive wet pattern starting at 264 hours... has over 8" of rain at DFW in 4 days time.

[weatherdude1108]

18z GFS has a massive wet pattern starting at 264 hours... has over 8" of rain at DFW in 4 days time.

That include the southern part too? Won't be anything new for me if it doesn't.

[Brent]

18z GFS has a massive wet pattern starting at 264 hours... has over 8" of rain at DFW in 4 days time.

That include the southern part too? Won't be anything new for me if it doesn't.

just shy of 3" for Austin. Same for Houston.

[Ntxw]

Seeing signs of split flow on the Ensembles. Supports another cut off low in the southern states, hopefully a little further east this time.

[Brent]

0z GFS again shows a wet pattern starting around 264 hours... and goes all the way out through 384 hours more or less(the peak of it is again October 23rd-24th). This marks all 4 GFS runs today showing basically the same timeframe. It's a long way out... but this is the best signs I've seen in awhile. This run is a more uniform 2 inches around I-35 from DFW to Austin btw

Fairly optimistic the heat waves end after this week at least... the GFS is still much warmer than the CMC next weekend, but isn't much worse than today was.

[hfriverajr]

At the moment, don't see any major precip in Texas, perhaps a bit early Mon morning in SE Texas. GFS is the only model that seems to be seeing that. Temperatures will be on the relatively warm to hot side. The front moving through Monday morning is very weak. Eastern trough usually means dry and warm for most of Texas. Extended model outputs indicate a bit of a respite from the warmth this weekend. Deep south Texas might get a bit of rain at that time. Nothing exciting showing up at all right now.

Hector