2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Yowsa

[gatorcane]

Check out the 18Z GFS Ensembles, as strong as I have seen them yet for this potential system. They are going just South of Southern Florida for the time being ejecting the system NE out of the Caribbean. Climatology-wise this makes sense. Still in the long-range though, development time is coming in though each run.

The GFS parallel ensembles (second image) are sending it through the Yucatan Channel between the Yucatan and the Western tip of Cuba, and look weaker.

The low develops in the SW Caribbean by day 4 or so...



GFS Parallel Ensembles:

[cycloneye]

No mention yet from NHC at 8 PM. Since there is no area of interest out there we stick here but as soon NHC begins to mention it,a thread can be made.

[blp]

Check out the 18Z GFS Ensembles, as strong as I have seen them yet for this potential system. They are going just South of Southern Florida for the time being ejecting the system NE out of the Caribbean. Climatology-wise this makes sense. Still in the long-range though, development time is coming in though each run.

The GFS parallel ensembles (second image) are sending it through the Yucatan Channel between the Yucatan and the Western tip of Cuba, and look weaker.

The low develops in the SW Caribbean by day 4 or so...

[]http://i.imgur.com/Jpw4Hpc.png[/img]

GFS Parallel Ensembles:
[]http://i.imgur.com/tUvaRgZ.png[/img]

Yep the Operational Ensemble is strongest I have seen yet.

It is also noteworthy that the Parallel Ensemble is coming in line now as well. It is supposed to be more conservative and if you compare the 12z to the 00z it is a huge shift. The 00z was favoring EPAC side. Intersting to see what the 18z says in a few minutes.

[ronjon]

I'll be watching since the last major hurricane to hit Tampa was this time of year in 1921. And that year was an extremely inactive year.

[blp]

12z FIM just out is slower and weaker because spends a lot of time over the Yucatan.

[SFLcane]

GFS ensembles still bullish tracking possibly towards FL.

[Alyono]

I'm seeing a big problem potentially

Setup seems not that different than the Stan setup

[SFLcane]

I'm seeing a big problem potentially

Setup seems not that different than the Stan setup

Please no lol. Wouldn't surprise me though. Still plenty of time to see if anything even develops but climo does favor an eventual NE track if something gets going in the NW caribbean

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm seeing a big problem potentially

Setup seems not that different than the Stan setup

Do u think it will go to the BOC like Stan?


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

The CMC Ensembles are more bullish as well, with most tracks heading N or NE out of the NW Caribbean / Yucatan.

[psyclone]

It's worth noting that the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have trended wetter for Florida. While no one talks about these, I find them to be good predictors of tropical potential, whether a coherent cyclone or a plume of tropical moisture. My interest-o-meter is ticking up a bit..

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 12Z ECMWF at the end of the run with an intensifying storm lifting slowly north out of the NW Caribbean. When was the last time we saw this from the ECMWF?

[ronjon]

It's worth noting that the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have trended wetter for Florida. While no one talks about these, I find them to be good predictors of tropical potential, whether a coherent cyclone or a plume of tropical moisture. My interest-o-meter is ticking up a bit..

Yeah psyclone, think that MJO pulse has a lot to do with it. A big monsoon gyre is predicted to envelop the SW Caribbean and very slowly move north.

[ronjon]

[quote="gatorcane"]Another look at the 12Z ECMWF at the end of the run with an intensifying storm lifting slowly north out of the NW Caribbean. When was the last time we saw this from the ECMWF?

Been a while. Dare I say since Wilma?

[gatorcane]

According to the GFS, convection will be on the increase across the SW Caribbean starting Sun and into Monday.

So the fact there is nothing there right now should not be a surprise.

[gatorcane]

I'll be watching since the last major hurricane to hit Tampa was this time of year in 1921. And that year was an extremely inactive year.

Here is the track of that hurricane, the last time the Tampa Bay area was hit by a hurricane. How Tampa Bay has gone this long without a direct hit is pretty unbelievable. The origins of this low based on what I am seeing from the models actually looks similar - obviously WAY too far out to say what happens with this potential Western Caribbean system:

[Dean4Storms]

Another look at the 12Z ECMWF at the end of the run with an intensifying storm lifting slowly north out of the NW Caribbean. When was the last time we saw this from the ECMWF?

Have to think with that setup that the Ridge over the East is weakening and sliding eastward as that apparent front in the midwest is moving East, a likely turn NE with that front approaching if this went further out in time.

[gatorcane]

Assuming the system forms, where the system ends up forming in the NW Carribbean looks significant. Below are tracks of systems in October TD and above passing within 65NM of different points around the NW Caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs through 156hrs is further south and goes into central america. Looks stronger on the Epac side compared to th NW Caribbean it showed previously


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk