2015 Global model runs discussion

[WeatherEmperor]

The lack of development has nothing to do with poor conditions and everything to do with land interaction. Gfs and Euroshow too much land traversing. I tell ya if it isnt conditions in this basin its conveniently land interaction. Just another chapter in the 2015 season lol


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[Weatherwatcher98]

When is the MJO pulse projected to get to our side of the world?

Not sure exactly. I just remember reading it somewhere on here.

[Steve]

Looks like it's headed for 1 and possibly 2 over the next couple of weeks. Both can be favorable on our side of the world. 2 concentrates around Western Gulf. 1 I think is more Caribbean. I could be wrong as I don't have the links tied into would-be Genesis on my phone. Here is a link to the 1/8 graph at ncep. Scroll down a little to see

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

[LarryWx]

Looks like it's headed for 1 and possibly 2 over the next couple of weeks. Both can be favorable on our side of the world. 2 concentrates around Western Gulf. 1 I think is more Caribbean. I could be wrong as I don't have the links tied into would-be Genesis on my phone. Here is a link to the 1/8 graph at ncep. Scroll down a little to see

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

TC Geneses 1995-2012...TC geneses per day (expressed as %) by MJO phase:

October
1: 14%
2: 11%
3: 11%
4: 19%
5: 9%
6: 4%
7: 5%
8: 2%
Within Circle: 10%
ALL: 10%

So, phases 1-4 in October were the most active with regard to geneses as a whole during that period. Within the circle (where it currently resides) was near the overall rare of 10%, i.e., neutral.

[psyclone]

we need to look at all model runs through the strong nino prism which pretty much kills off late season western Caribbean development. The curtain may close early this year but the same nino responsible for that should deliver a wild & stormy winter to the deep south & florida with an amped up subtropical jet.

[LarryWx]

we need to look at all model runs through the strong nino prism which pretty much kills off late season western Caribbean development. The curtain may close early this year but the same nino responsible for that should deliver a wild & stormy winter to the deep south & florida with an amped up subtropical jet.

Yes, strong Niño climo is clearly a negative factor. Would that mean the model consensus is more than likely underestimating shear? That's what I'd like to know.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Looks like it's headed for 1 and possibly 2 over the next couple of weeks. Both can be favorable on our side of the world. 2 concentrates around Western Gulf. 1 I think is more Caribbean. I could be wrong as I don't have the links tied into would-be Genesis on my phone. Here is a link to the 1/8 graph at ncep. Scroll down a little to see

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

Thanks Steve and Larry.

[gatorcane]

It's not the El Nino conditions that might be the issue. It looks like land interaction is the problem. The models that keep it over the NW Caribbean show strengthening.

Shear over the SW and Western Caribbean looks favorable right now.

[Weatherwatcher98]

New GFS running now

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfs and now the Canadian bury it in central america. Euro comes out later today but it should also do the same. Development in the WC appears non existent now. End of the season appears to be approaching.


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[LarryWx]

Neither the 12Z GFS nor CMC shows any TC anywhere close to FL throughout the entire runs. This tells me that S FL can breathe a little bit easier. The threat to FL has continued to diminish over the last 24 hours IMO based on a clear shift of model consensus away from what had been fairly strong pointing of an arrow toward Cuba, S FL and the Bahamas 10/19-21. Regardless, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence as there's still time for things to change.

[SFLcane]

Neither the 12Z GFS nor CMC shows any TC anywhere close to FL throughout the entire runs. This tells me that S FL can breathe a little bit easier. The threat to FL has continued to diminish over the last 24 hours IMO based on a clear shift of model consensus away from what had been fairly strong pointing of an arrow toward Cuba, S FL and the Bahamas 10/19-21. Regardless, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence as there's still time for things to change.

was there really an actual threat? Personally I don't loose sleep over 200hr model runs don't care if there all onboard. Until a disturbance develops and were talking 120hrs out then ''maybe'' we might have game. Otherwise you might go nuts. Maybe 2016 based on the CFS might be interesting but this basin is just to fragile.

[LarryWx]

Neither the 12Z GFS nor CMC shows any TC anywhere close to FL throughout the entire runs. This tells me that S FL can breathe a little bit easier. The threat to FL has continued to diminish over the last 24 hours IMO based on a clear shift of model consensus away from what had been fairly strong pointing of an arrow toward Cuba, S FL and the Bahamas 10/19-21. Regardless, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence as there's still time for things to change.

was there really an actual threat? Personally I don't loose sleep over 200hr model runs don't care if there all onboard. Until a disturbance develops and were talking 120hrs out then ''maybe'' we might have game. Otherwise you might go nuts. Maybe 2016 based on the CFS might be interesting but this basin is just to fragile.

When the GFS, Euro, and the CMC were all pointing toward S FL around 10/21 during the runs of 12Z of 10/9 and 0Z runs of 10/10, it was growing a little bit threatening in my mind considering that model consensus in combination with the support of mid Oct climatology, but certainly it was still not yet a high confidence threat to me.

[CourierPR]

Neither the 12Z GFS nor CMC shows any TC anywhere close to FL throughout the entire runs. This tells me that S FL can breathe a little bit easier. The threat to FL has continued to diminish over the last 24 hours IMO based on a clear shift of model consensus away from what had been fairly strong pointing of an arrow toward Cuba, S FL and the Bahamas 10/19-21. Regardless, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence as there's still time for things to change.

The "arrow" could very well point toward Cuba, S. FL, and The Bahamas once something develops a few days from now. To trumpet any model consensus in the absence of a developing system is jumping the gun.

[LarryWx]

Neither the 12Z GFS nor CMC shows any TC anywhere close to FL throughout the entire runs. This tells me that S FL can breathe a little bit easier. The threat to FL has continued to diminish over the last 24 hours IMO based on a clear shift of model consensus away from what had been fairly strong pointing of an arrow toward Cuba, S FL and the Bahamas 10/19-21. Regardless, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence as there's still time for things to change.

The "arrow" could very well point toward Cuba, S. FL, and The Bahamas once something develops a few days from now. To trumpet any model consensus in the absence of a developing system is jumping the gun.

Courier,
Of course that can be the case though I'm not sure what you're saying or to whom you're referring in your 2nd sentence. Please clarify. Thanks.

Edit: I don't know if Courier will respond. Also, I don't know if he/she was aiming that 2nd sentence toward me. But I would like to state that the purpose of this thread is to mention and discuss modeled threats or the lack thereof, which is what several of us have been doing. I've been all along repeatedly saying it is too early to make a high confidence call of either a hit somewhere or no hit anywhere. About all I've been mentioning is either an increasing or decreasing trend toward a threat as the models went back and forth between threats and lack of threats while at the same time keeping climatology in the back of my mind. I've also been reminding folks of the GFS debacle of one year ago being that it is in the same general area at about the same time of year. Go back in the thread to see. I'll leave it at that.

[CourierPR]

LarryWx, after further review, I better understand what you are trying to convey in your posts.

[LarryWx]

LarryWx, after further review, I better understand what you are trying to convey in your posts.

Courier,
Sounds good!

[Weatherlover12]

12z Gfs and now the Canadian bury it in central america. Euro comes out later today but it should also do the same. Development in the WC appears non existent now. End of the season appears to be approaching.


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Are you sure?
I wouldn't jump the gun over model runs. Usually pro mets use the atmosphere & don't just rely on one model.

[Weatherlover12]

Their wasn't a threat to FL until a actual storm formed. Also the MJO upward phase is coming to the West Carribean next week. So no matter what model says what.. If atmosphere is right.. A storm will form regardless. We have to start looking at atmosphere more & not rely on models runs that far out. All models this year haven't performed like they're supposed to

[blp]

Starting to see good rotation down there.