Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

The EPO is currently positive but should flip back negative after the 15th of October. AO looks like it has been and will be predominantly negative most of this month. The AO actually has been negative most of the time since the beginning of summer. PNA is remaining positive most of this month as well.

Those are all good signs for winter if you like cold and snow independent of the El Nino. The EPO isn't as consistently negative as I would like but I wasn't expecting a repeat of the past 2 winters, just transitions between positive and negative is satisfactory as long as the other indexes work out. Maybe not as much severe arctic outbreaks but just cold enough for snow!



Global snow-cover is experiencing rapid growth which is also a good sign. Snow always grows rapidly in October but the rate it grows can tell you the state of the AO. -AO = further south snow advance quickly in the middle latitudes

[Brent]

The EPO is currently positive but should flip back negative after the 15th of October. AO looks like it has been and will be predominantly negative most of this month. The AO actually has been negative most of the time since the beginning of summer. PNA is remaining positive most of this month as well.

Those are all good signs for winter if you like cold and snow independent of the El Nino. The EPO isn't as consistently negative as I would like but I wasn't expecting a repeat of the past 2 winters, just transitions between positive and negative is satisfactory as long as the other indexes work out. Maybe not as much severe arctic outbreaks but just cold enough for snow!



Global snow-cover is experiencing rapid growth which is also a good sign. Snow always grows rapidly in October but the rate it grows can tell you the state of the AO. -AO = further south snow advance quickly in the middle latitudes

Arctic air is kind of overrated anyway... at least in my experiences it's almost always dry or certainly very limited moisture.

[JDawg512]

EWX finally has a hint of a possible change by mid next week. In the mean time we will be flirting with record breaking temps so don't put away your swimming trunks and tank tops just yet.

[Brent]

EWX finally has a hint of a possible change by mid next week. In the mean time we will be flirting with record breaking temps so don't put away your swimming trunks and tank tops just yet.

Yeah... GFS is still hinting at the start of a more wet/unsettled pattern around next Wednesday. It's getting pretty consistent for being 10 days out.

[Ntxw]

Arctic air is kind of overrated anyway... at least in my experiences it's almost always dry or certainly very limited moisture.

I agree it is if you like snow! Those low heights underneath ULL's provides a lot more magic with cooling aloft is much nicer than drying out as cold air advects too quickly. I hope we get out of the pattern of the past few years where storms shear out as they swing out of the southern rockies. We need deepening bowling balls!

[weatherdude1108]

EWX put a little rain teaser in middle of next week.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 111934
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
234 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST BY NAM12
COMPARED TO WEAKER GFS. BLEND OF SUPERBLEND AND NAM12 WAS TAKEN
FOR WIND AND DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. REFERENCE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. "COOLER" TUESDAY...BUT HIGHS STILL AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING NEAR AND WEST OF THE AREA.
DESPITE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RESUMING...LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE MAY WORK BACK INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO COMFORTABLE MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOONS. A SLIGHT RE-ENFORCING
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND MAY
LEAD TO EVEN COOLER MORNING LOWS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY
COMING DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX finally has a hint of a possible change by mid next week. In the mean time we will be flirting with record breaking temps so don't put away your swimming trunks and tank tops just yet.

Yeah... GFS is still hinting at the start of a more wet/unsettled pattern around next Wednesday. It's getting pretty consistent for being 10 days out.

Just now saw this right after I posted about EWX. Sorry about that.

[Brent]

Oh looky what the 18z GFS has... and yes... that would be snow

[Ntxw]

4-5 thousand feet up in the high plateaus of the panhandle

[Tireman4]

I ....can not...take...this...ughh....I want cold....ok...I am done with the rant....the pattern change is coming...

[Brent]

:uarrow: 4-5 thousand feet up in the high plateaus of the panhandle

Yeah I know... just found it funny.

The pattern change is definitely on the way. That's the bigger message out of the last 2 days of GFS runs.

The GFS has also went cooler for next weekend... earlier it had mid 80s now it has highs near 80 both days.

and on a more we can dream note: DFW 18z GFS on October 27th, lows in the low 40s, highs in the mid 50s.

[gpsnowman]

Oh looky what the 18z GFS has... and yes... that would be snow

I do not care if that verifies or not, that is a pretty map. Not much else to look at while we wait for the pattern to shift. And something tells me once it does, look out. This nasty pattern will break and we all will benefit with colder temps and rain. Not a forecast by any means, just a thought of what goes around comes around. Bring it.

[amawea]

Arctic air is kind of overrated anyway... at least in my experiences it's almost always dry or certainly very limited moisture.

I agree it is if you like snow! Those low heights underneath ULL's provides a lot more magic with cooling aloft is much nicer than drying out as cold air advects too quickly. I hope we get out of the pattern of the past few years where storms shear out as they swing out of the southern rockies. We need deepening bowling balls!

Yes! I remember back in the 60's when lows would strengthen as they came down when I was a kid in Oklahoma. Where have they gone?

[JDawg512]

EWX finally has a hint of a possible change by mid next week. In the mean time we will be flirting with record breaking temps so don't put away your swimming trunks and tank tops just yet.

Yeah... GFS is still hinting at the start of a more wet/unsettled pattern around next Wednesday. It's getting pretty consistent for being 10 days out.

Just now saw this right after I posted about EWX. Sorry about that.

Hehe no worries, your good at posting up the discussion for all to see.

Ugh just gotta get through tomorrow. 96 was the high today.

[Ralph's Weather]

Recent GFS runs seem to support the idea of wetter conditions starting in a week to 10 days and cold starting in about 2 weeks. Snow in the High Plains does not seem unreasonable at this time of year.

[Brent]

0z GFS has a front and a pretty significant rain event as early as next Tuesday with widespread rain developing Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Night and lasting into Wednesday





FWD throws a bone in the morning AFD:

FOR ANY OPTIMISTS OUT THERE REGARDING COOLER/WETTER WEATHER...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH ADVERTISING INCREASED TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MORE FALL-LIKE
CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO
SEE IF THIS IS JUST ANOTHER MIRAGE IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE THAT NEVER
ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES...OR IF THIS COULD BE A GLIMPSE OF A MORE
ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN.

[gboudx]

Hopefully the near record heat today affects the Blue Jays hitters and the Rangers can win the ALDS today. Would be cool to have an I-45 ALCS if both Astros and Rangers advance.

[Ntxw]

Fingers crossed, don't want it to have to end in Canada. Take care of business today in Arlington.

All guidance lower heights the rest of October, good odds to return to normal or below normal temps beyond this week. Precipitation is a more difficult forecast

Just an interesting tidbit I mentioned some days ago the heat will be centered in the North. Fargo, North Dakota hit 97F yesterday! How about them apples, I'll have to check their records. Today their highs will be mid 50s and overnight lows in the 30s back to normal up there

[dhweather]

18z GFS has a massive wet pattern starting at 264 hours... has over 8" of rain at DFW in 4 days time.

When models do crack

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]Fingers crossed, don't want it to have to end in Canada. Take care of business today in Arlington.

We are going to try and take of business in Houston today.