2015 Global model runs discussion

[LarryWx]

The para GEFS for 0Z has no support for a WC genesis. Also, the 6Z GFS has nothing close to one. Finally, the 6Z GEFS has only very little support and a good bit less support than the ~6 members of the 0Z GEFS for one that moves to or near FL ~10/22.
I now think the chance for a WC has moved into low chance territory in contrast to how things looked just over 48 hours with the 0Z Saturday runs. If the current trend away from a WC genesis continues into tomorrow, I'll probably then declare this a longshot in my mind. Let's see if there is any reversal at 12Z. I'd be surprised if there is a reversal then but we'll see.

[wxman57]

EC/GFS continue to delay development and trend toward an East Pac storm rather than W. Caribbean. Typical trend for a phantom west Caribbean (predicted) storm by the models. Fine with me, as I'll be in Florida next week.

[Weatherwatcher98]

EC/GFS continue to delay development and trend toward an East Pac storm rather than W. Caribbean. Typical trend for a phantom west Caribbean (predicted) storm by the models. Fine with me, as I'll be in Florida next week.

When is the next Positive MJO Pulse for our Region??

[stormlover2013]

CMC and NAVY only models that show really anything lol and u know those are some horrendous models lol

[psyclone]

EC/GFS continue to delay development and trend toward an East Pac storm rather than W. Caribbean. Typical trend for a phantom west Caribbean (predicted) storm by the models. Fine with me, as I'll be in Florida next week.

Totally agree. We finally have non-heat stroke inducing weather. My AC is catching a break and my long neglected bike is getting some use. It's been a long, hot and disgustingly wet summer (close to 5 feet of rain fell on me this Summer)...we really deserve a break and I am loving this Fall weather. I'm not surprised by the model trends considering nino climo nor am I the least bit disappointed.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM is all-in. No other model shows this so there is about a 99% chance it is wrong, thankfully.

[Weatherwatcher98]

99.999% Wrong

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Let's hope the NAVGEM is waaaayyyyyy out to lunch then! Tampa Bay doesn't need a repeat of the "big one" (that nobody living today remembers) that hit back in the 20's. A storm like that today would devastate the area.
October is our danger month on this side of Florida for direct-hit Hurricanes, because that is when we are most likely to see a setup that encourages a path of a strong storm (which can brew due to still high water temps) that starts from the lower GOM/extreme western carribean and can travel NNE/NE over the state as a reaction to an approaching front. That is a common synoptic setup this time of year.
We see a similar pattern in the early summer too, but then, the Gulf isn't usually as warm yet and there are fewer tropical waves making it all the way to the west at the higher latitudes necessary. What can form from some residual local energy (leftover tail from a front) or slowly from a general area of low pressure with consistent storms is often very weak.
So towards the end of the season (October) is the time of year for us to really have to watch out. Luckily, it is very rare that everything falls into place just right to cause us any big worry!

[stormlover2013]

Navy has been wrong all year, only look at the GFS and EURO

[Steve H.]

Ironically, the NOGAPS was the only model to pick up on the development of Mitch in 1998, two weeks before he popped. The guys at the tropical desk commented "if it's that convinced, then it must be so. It keeps showing it over and over and over again." But a blind squirrel does get a nut once in a while.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Ironically, the NOGAPS was the only model to pick up on the development of Mitch in 1998, two weeks before he popped. The guys at the tropical desk commented "if it's that convinced, then it must be so. It keeps showing it over and over and over again." But a blind squirrel does get a nut once in a while.

Wasn't the CMC the first to Sniff out Joaquin??

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS continues the trend that started two days ago of no WC genesis and it also has a stronger EPAC TC similar to today's 6Z GFS.

Edit: The 6Z para-GEFS also shows no support for a WC genesis.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I figured as much. El Nino Year.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Let's hope the NAVGEM is waaaayyyyyy out to lunch then! Tampa Bay doesn't need a repeat of the "big one" (that nobody living today remembers) that hit back in the 20's. A storm like that today would devastate the area.
October is our danger month on this side of Florida for direct-hit Hurricanes, because that is when we are most likely to see a setup that encourages a path of a strong storm (which can brew due to still high water temps) that starts from the lower GOM/extreme western carribean and can travel NNE/NE over the state as a reaction to an approaching front. That is a common synoptic setup this time of year.
We see a similar pattern in the early summer too, but then, the Gulf isn't usually as warm yet and there are fewer tropical waves making it all the way to the west at the higher latitudes necessary. What can form from some residual local energy (leftover tail from a front) or slowly from a general area of low pressure with consistent storms is often very weak.
So towards the end of the season (October) is the time of year for us to really have to watch out. Luckily, it is very rare that everything falls into place just right to cause us any big worry!

Especially With an El Nino. I will happy happy if the year is over personally. Joaquin was enough.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM has not folded still. Shows basically the same thing as the 06Z, I am going to say one of the next couple of runs it will fold and show zip.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Lets Hope so.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro also has nothing in the WC. The Navy model stands bravely alone hahaha


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[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has no support for a WC genesis. Regarding the NAVGEM, I think that the only worse model may be the long range NAM though the JMA has had its moments, too. I put it in the JB's "Cartoon" model category and it often actually makes the CMC seem sane. I must give the NAVGEM kudos for its bravery to stand out like this.

I'm beginning to get that "Bones" feeling though I know Bones doesn't get trotted out to declare old model threats "dead" lol. "57" is Bones' boss. So, it is up to him I guess.

Edit: Even the JMA doesn't have a WC genesis. It goes out far enough now to know (10/20).

[wxman57]

Looking like it was another phantom storm. Possibly a storm in the East Pac next week.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro favors as GFS EPAC development.