Texas Fall-2015

[dhweather]

Fingers crossed, don't want it to have to end in Canada. Take care of business today in Arlington.

All guidance lower heights the rest of October, good odds to return to normal or below normal temps beyond this week. Precipitation is a more difficult forecast

Just an interesting tidbit I mentioned some days ago the heat will be centered in the North. Fargo, North Dakota hit 97F yesterday! How about them apples, I'll have to check their records. Today their highs will be mid 50s and overnight lows in the 30s back to normal up there

No kidding - take care of it today and be done with it. Hopefully Adrian Beltre is well enough to play.

slightly off topic, but it beats the endless mantra of "dry and no rain"

[TheProfessor]

Hopefully the near record heat today affects the Blue Jays hitters and the Rangers can win the ALDS today. Would be cool to have an I-45 ALCS if both Astros and Rangers advance.

Actually the heat could help the rangers a lot. The Rangers are facing a Knuckle Ball pitcher named R.A Dickey and when the Knuckle Ball is hit it causes ball to rise more in the air add the extra warm air and still the fairly high dew points of 64 degrees (it says a north wind moves in this afternoon so that could change) and you now have a much less dense air that will allow the baseball to fly, now that could help the Blue Jays too, but if Holland uses his ground ball pitches he should be fine. If the Rangers can make good contact on the Knuckle ball then I think they will win, btw Hamilton 2 for 2 with 2hrs against the Knuckle ball this year.

[Tireman4]

McCullers is pitching for us today. He has done well at the Park. With our hitters, who knows. Hoping for the best.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.weatherbell.com/


JB with a great video about the upcoming winter. He is a bit biased towards his agenda (Lots of NE snow) but he brings up some great points. Also, he points out what Ntx has been talking about for a while now, the nino 1+2 region being a bit cooler than '97. Check it out.

"All the El nino's with +PNA in October were cold in the lower 48"

[gboudx]

If the video referenced is the 10/10 Saturday Update, then you can skip the first 4:30 if you don't want to listen to climate change talk.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm hoping only one more week of suffering in this desert-dry air mass (to be reinforced this weekend according to EWX). Meanwhile, the watering of soil cracks continues. Can't water enough in these conditions.

I set up my new Acurite digital rain gauge yesterday. Now, all it needs to do is...RAIN.



000
FXUS64 KEWX 121940
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG A DEL RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO LINE
WITH COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO SAN ANGELO TO FORT WORTH
LINE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LIFT BY
THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
I-35 WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
ALLOWING FOR MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE WEEK...THEN...THE DRY
AIRMASS IS REINFORCED THIS WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...THEY WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
DRY AIRMASS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BELOW A MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS.

[Portastorm]

We made weather history today in Austin. Hit 99 degrees at Camp Mabry, breaking record of 98 degrees. And tomorrow we'll be talking about a slight risk of fire weather. Isn't this fun?!

[Tireman4]

[quote="Portastorm"]:uarrow:

We made weather history today in Austin. Hit 99 degrees at Camp Mabry, breaking record of 98 degrees. And tomorrow we'll be talking about a slight risk of fire weather. Isn't this fun?! [/quote





Make it go away Porta for lands sakes

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

We made weather history today in Austin. Hit 99 degrees at Camp Mabry, breaking record of 98 degrees. And tomorrow we'll be talking about a slight risk of fire weather. Isn't this fun?!

Time to move to Alaska.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow:

We made weather history today in Austin. Hit 99 degrees at Camp Mabry, breaking record of 98 degrees. And tomorrow we'll be talking about a slight risk of fire weather. Isn't this fun?!

Time to move to Alaska.

You and me.

[weatherdude1108]

Silver lining from Bob Rose:

Looking ahead to next week, we may finally begin to see some changes in the weather pattern. Today's long-range solutions indicate a trough of low pressure will swing south out of western Canada early next week, dragging a cold front with it. The front is forecast to push across Texas the middle of next week and this time, a fairly widespread area of rain showers is forecast. High temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday but look to fall to the 70s behind the front Thursday and Friday. There are signs another reinforcing shot of cooler air will follow around Sunday, the 25th. Hopefully, this will be the start of a more progressive and cooler weather pattern.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[northjaxpro]

Fingers crossed, don't want it to have to end in Canada. Take care of business today in Arlington.

All guidance lower heights the rest of October, good odds to return to normal or below normal temps beyond this week. Precipitation is a more difficult forecast

Just an interesting tidbit I mentioned some days ago the heat will be centered in the North. Fargo, North Dakota hit 97F yesterday! How about them apples, I'll have to check their records. Today their highs will be mid 50s and overnight lows in the 30s back to normal up there

No kidding - take care of it today and be done with it. Hopefully Adrian Beltre is well enough to play.

slightly off topic, but it beats the endless mantra of "dry and no rain"

Yes, there are hints /subtle indications in medium/long range models which suggests that that the pattern may begin to change to a cooler, progressive pattern across the Northern Plains and the CONUS east of the Rockies within 7-10 days from now. It won't be long until areas will be experiencing possibly a signifcant cool spell.

All the more reason to enter the First Freeze Predictions thread to take your best forecast of when your particular area will experience the first freeze of the Fall /Winter 2015-2016. The first significant cool spell is just around the corner, and could bring areas their first possible freeze before October is finished.

[Brent]

Tuesday/Wednesday continues to look very promising for widespread rain... and it appears a Gulf low gets involved on the GFS(the low is deep in the Gulf but combines with the frontal moisture).

and behind that front... maybe some 60s/low 70s for highs towards the end of next week?! and widespread 40s for lows?!

May Friday be the last near 90 degree day for about 6-7 months.

[CaptinCrunch]

HAPPY SUMMER Charlie Brown.......


Hopefully this week will be the last time we see anything close to the 90 degree mark. But we said that 2 weeks ago...lol.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am just glad that an end to the dry hot summer is within the 7 day forecast now. This morning was a nice 52 and tomorrow will likely end up in the 40s at my place.

[Tireman4]

I have to learn patience...this transition is taking longer than we expected...but it will come...climo dictates it....

[gboudx]

It's weird seeing some of the trees starting to show Fall colors, and it's in the 90's.

[gpsnowman]

It's weird seeing some of the trees starting to show Fall colors, and it's in the 90's.

You got that right. Some trees with tiny leaves behind my alleyway are yellow and falling already. It is weird seeing all the leaves blow around with a hot wind blowing in your face. Doesn't seem right.

[Portastorm]

Tuesday/Wednesday continues to look very promising for widespread rain... and it appears a Gulf low gets involved on the GFS(the low is deep in the Gulf but combines with the frontal moisture).

and behind that front... maybe some 60s/low 70s for highs towards the end of next week?! and widespread 40s for lows?!

May Friday be the last near 90 degree day for about 6-7 months.

Yeah, the 0z Euro really ramped up rainfall late next week for much of the state. GFS shows less but still *some* rain next week with a decent frontal passage. I've seen this before and had the operational runs from both the GFS and Euro yank the promise out from under us ... so I'll buy into this around Monday of next week.

Hope the pumpkins don't melt out there ... I hear there's already a shortage this year.

[texas1836]

Funny you should mention pumpkins. Not sure if this could have an effect on or winter, but I just read that the Northwest passage will be closed indefinitely by ice. It mentioned the melt was 3 weeks shorter than the average, with areas of ice still having 10’ of ice. Later the article mentioned a shortage of pumpkins and Thanksgiving pie.