EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

96E INVEST 151009 1200 8.0N 95.0W EPAC 15 NA

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, accompanied by a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, has formed about 400 miles
south of the Guatemala/Mexico border. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development of this system during
the next several days while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  10/09/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    30    32    37    42    46    48    46    45    45    45
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    30    32    37    42    46    48    46    45    45    45
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    33    35    36    37    37    37
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     0     3     3     1     4     8     8     5     8     9    11    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -1     0     1     3     3     1     0     0     4     2     1     0
SHEAR DIR        312   258   268   289   279   299   328   301   277   243   245   247   269
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.7  29.7  29.6  29.7  29.7  29.6  29.6  29.4
POT. INT. (KT)   159   159   161   161   160   163   163   162   163   163   162   162   160
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     6     7     7     7     8     9     9    10    10    10
700-500 MB RH     76    78    79    79    77    76    73    73    69    67    64    62    61
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     6     7     8     8  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    33    32    27    28    20    11     7     3     0     5     4     6     1
200 MB DIV        75    86    81    69    45    17    36    35    47    33    26    45    10
700-850 TADV      -1     0     0     2     2     0     0    -3    -3    -4    -3    -4    -9
LAND (KM)        605   613   627   658   705   706   723   787   854   952  1097  1280  1457
LAT (DEG N)      8.6   8.8   9.0   9.2   9.3   9.6  10.0  10.4  10.7  10.9  11.1  11.2  11.2
LONG(DEG W)     92.3  93.1  94.0  95.0  96.0  98.3 100.6 103.0 105.3 107.8 110.6 113.4 116.2
STM SPEED (KT)     9     9    10    10    10    12    11    12    12    13    14    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      17    18    23    29    29    25    26    25    37    47    27    43    40

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  514  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  78.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   7.  15.  23.  30.  34.  37.  39.  41.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  11.  12.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   5.   7.  12.  17.  21.  23.  21.  20.  20.  20.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     10/09/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   2.1 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  23.2 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  71.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST     10/09/15  18 UTC         ##
   ##    ����������������������������������������

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional gradual
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Latest GFS brings this to 925 mbar, but the ECMWF isn't on board with such intensity.

[Extratropical94]

Remains at 30/60

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 500 miles south-southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 500 miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Alyono]

6Z MU has a landfall in San Francisco with 970mb

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 500 miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has decreased since yesterday. Environmental
conditions, however, are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Models are bullish on intensity except the ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has become less organized since yesterday. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while this system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Extratropical94]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 625 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, remains disorganized. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by the middle of next week while this
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 600
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week while this system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since
yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week while this system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while this
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Berg

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure system located
about 550 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, has changed little in
organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week while this system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Development now by next weekend.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure area located about 600 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become progressively more
conducive for development after mid-week, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression by the weekend while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for the development of a
tropical depression by the weekend while the low moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with an area of low pressure located about 850 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
this week or this weekend while the low moves westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii needs to monitor this. Lots of variation in steering by the models in the long range.