Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

KTKI in McKinney is reporting light rain...

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTKI.html

as I look out my window and don't even see clouds.

Light rain, with 14% humidity no less. Amazing it is hitting the ground/not virga!

[Ntxw]

12z Euro says back to climo after Friday. 70s low 80s the rest of the way then of course has widespread rain for the I-35 and I-45 corridor. Take the second part of that as you like, though it is 5-7 days away

[Tireman4]

NTWX....I wonder....you are the expert here..November could be a hum dinger of a cold month..?

[Ntxw]

NTWX....I wonder....you are the expert here..November could be a hum dinger of a cold month..?

I appreciate your expert compliment sir, but I am not one. I just nitpick the long range models and climate/statistical approach to information . Translator per say rather than forecaster. We are actually following last year quite well, so I would say yes odds favor freak November followed by warm December.

In fact going back to page 1, I did a composite (The same one theProfessor posted) it included November

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=117158&start=0

[Ntxw]

So last week I questioned why the AO wouldn't do anything cold wise. EPO went positive and heat wave. It's coming down though and should remain neutral to slightly negative, or about average. This index continues to amaze me on it's skills with temperatures on a big scale. There is money to be made if you can forecast it.

Code: Select all

2015 09 13   21.59
2015 09 14   62.41
2015 09 15   89.67
2015 09 16  107.10
2015 09 17  150.57
2015 09 18  143.19
2015 09 19  137.79
2015 09 20  134.46
2015 09 21  126.20
2015 09 22  104.90
2015 09 23   35.76
2015 09 24    9.26
2015 09 25    1.28
2015 09 26   -6.99
2015 09 27  -61.28
2015 09 28  -94.65
2015 09 29  -31.43
2015 09 30   34.12
2015 10 01  -60.03
2015 10 02 -178.93
2015 10 03 -198.51
2015 10 04 -191.08
2015 10 05 -155.31
2015 10 06 -102.53
2015 10 07  -60.23
2015 10 08  -18.50
2015 10 09   54.00
2015 10 10  169.80
2015 10 11  163.41

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately we have one of those "developing" situations at the moment. Numerous wildfires breaking out in Bastrop County. One fire is larger than 50 acres and is only 10% contained at the moment.

[dhweather]

Unfortunately we have one of those "developing" situations at the moment. Numerous wildfires breaking out in Bastrop County. One fire is larger than 50 acres and is only 10% contained at the moment.

Well that's not good at all. With the weather working so hard against them, it will be difficult to get that under control.

[weatherdude1108]

Unfortunately we have one of those "developing" situations at the moment. Numerous wildfires breaking out in Bastrop County. One fire is larger than 50 acres and is only 10% contained at the moment.

Well that's not good at all. With the weather working so hard against them, it will be difficult to get that under control.

Any idea of cause?

It was a downed powerline in the Bastrop County Fire Complex in September 2011 with the winds of the dry side of Tropical Storm Lee.

Edit: Found it. Three fires so far. Two 100% contained as of 3pm. One 10% contained.

http://www.kvue.com/story/news/local/20 ... /73875006/

[Brent]

We'll just skip the part of FWD's AFD talking about record highs

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND ANOTHER COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 80S.

THE WEEKEND DOES LOOK NICE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

[Brent]

Steve McCauley
19 mins ·

I am cautiously optimistic about the rain chances next week as the Stat Method, for three days in a row now, "thinks" a line of thunderstorms should sweep across north Texas. This, of course, is no guarantee, but this is the first time in many weeks that the SM has been hitting the rain chances so hard for north Texas. So we are in hopes this may actually happen.

[JDawg512]

It's weird seeing some of the trees starting to show Fall colors, and it's in the 90's.

Those aren't Fall colors your seeing, that's vegetation dying and turning brown from lack of rain fall.....lol

TBH, I always thought some of them changed just because of the much shorter days now... they know that winter is coming I guess.

Some of them are indeed changing due to the angle of the sun and the shorter days. Trees such as Cedar Elms tend to start losing their leaves despite what the weather is doing. Ceder Elms specifically start in mid October. Other native trees do the same thing.

Having said that, there is no doubt that the flash drought is taking a toll on the trees whether native or non native and temperature also plays a role particularly low temps at night.

[dhweather]

FWD AFD - they are even model fatigued

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY
BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES ONSHORE...AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND PLAINS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
TO TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL A WEEK OUT
BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING FOR NEXT
WEEK.

[weatherdude1108]

I think the Fall Nino signal may be starting to manifest itself through the pattern shift. EWX mentions "IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT BEYOND 7 DAYS" for the long range models.

Let's hope the real world is just as impressive.

842
FXUS64 KEWX 141143 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015

OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON AS
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW AND
APPEAR TO HAVE IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT BEYOND 7 DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE A HEAVY RAINER WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT BUT WHERE THE MODELS DO DIVERGE IS HOW FAR
THIS FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS SAFE TO SAY
THAT OUR CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL INCREASE COME MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...AND LETS HOPE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TOO.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like the much anticipated pattern change is expected to occur by early next week. I'm thinking we could see (on average) 1-2 storm systems a week through next spring. Hopefully the drought will end across much of the state by December.

[wxman57]

When I walked out to my car at 4pm yesterday afternoon I had to question what month it was. Seemed unusually warm for mid October. It was - 95F for the high in Houston yesterday. That's about what the GFS had been predicting last week. I'm beginning to wonder if IAH will register a low below 50 this month. Heck, maybe we won't see a temperature below 50 all winter?

[Ralph's Weather]

Very nice this morning with a low of 51. I like our chances for starting fall weather next week, but I will feel much better about it if the forecast holds as we near the weekend.

[gboudx]

I'm encouraged that Steve McCauley's Stat Method keeps hitting on rain for next week. Wxman57 has been in control long enough. "The boy child" needs to bully his way into control. Geaux boy child!

[Tireman4]

When I walked out to my car at 4pm yesterday afternoon I had to question what month it was. Seemed unusually warm for mid October. It was - 95F for the high in Houston yesterday. That's about what the GFS had been predicting last week. I'm beginning to wonder if IAH will register a low below 50 this month. Heck, maybe we won't see a temperature below 50 all winter?

Sigh. Yeah, it was scorching yesterday. Weird. Like 2004 weird. Larry Cosgrove is saying November will be cold... Certainly you are not complaining..

[TheProfessor]

Looks like I'll be missing my first Freeze here in Ohio when I come back to Texas tomorrow, which is fine with me since I probably won't be missing any snow and watching a night football game in 35 degrees weather isn't very fun when there's not snow anyways.

[CaptinCrunch]

Look at the forecast from the Great Lakes area down to Washington DC and back up across the NE. 20's and 30's for lows with the freeze line down to D.C.
First BIG Cold front of the season for them, with some snow showers across the Great Lakes area.