WPAC: Invest 93W

[mrbagyo]

93W floater is up, but not yet shown on NRL
The system is currently located near the dateline.

[euro6208]

GFS is picking up on this keeps it weak and dissipates east of the Marianas.

[euro6208]

EURO briefly makes this a TS as it recurves...

[1900hurricane]

06Z UKMET analysis had this just off the equator and dateline, about 1*N, 179.5*E.



Looks to be consolidating much further NW than that right now though.

[1900hurricane]

The CMC has joined the UKMET at 12Z in developing 93W beyond a minimal tropical storm, but that's it for right now. I could see that happening, but I'm less confident with this one that I was/am with Koppu and Champi.

[1900hurricane]

RSCAT has a broad, diffuse circulation.

[euro6208]

NWS

MAIN FEATURE SEEN ON SATELLITE IS THE BROAD DISTURBANCE...INVEST
93W...SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR 5N175E. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING THE BROAD SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO THEN TURNING IT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT NEARS
POHNPEI AROUND MONDAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. A
FEW SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN AT ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

[euro6208]

Latest EURO doesn't do much with this...

EVen GFS...

[1900hurricane]

Even the UKMET has been backing off lately. I'm still keeping an eye on it for now since it's in a favored El Nino formation zone, but it might just not be in the cards this time around.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a weak surface circulation has developed with 93W. Pending the next ASCAT, it might actually be close to a depression. I think it at least deserves a mention in the next JTWC outlook to start out with.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, definitely a circulation in there. Needs some convection though.

[euro6208]

NWS:

THE DISTURBANCE NNW OF POHNPEI WILL HEAD TO THE NW
THEN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STAYING EAST OF
THE MARIANAS. SOME MODELS SHOW A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CIRCULATION...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE
MARIANAS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE MONSOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH OF CHAMPI TO EXTEND EASTWARD OVER THE
MARIANAS AND KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND WEAKER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has now given 93W a low.

ABPW10 PGTW 181230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181230Z-190600ZOCT2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZOCT2015//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180752ZOCT2015//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180600Z, TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 180600Z, TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 326 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 155.8E
(INVEST 93W), APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN AN 181047Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. AN 180833Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
155.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 154.9E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC upped to medium.

ABPW10 PGTW 191330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191330Z-200600ZOCT2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZOCT2015//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190752ZOCT2015//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 190600Z, TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD
TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 190600Z, TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N
140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
154.9E (INVEST 93W), IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY
580 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 190821Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWED WELL DEFINED
SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 191024Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC PREVENTING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO 20 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Now a non-warning TD on JMA's 18Z analysis.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 154E NW SLOWLY.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to run out of time if it is to develop. It's going to be absorbed by Champi in a couple days.

[supercane]

JMA 00Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 16N 153E WNW SLOWLY.

JTWC Dvorak try:
TPPN12 PGTW 200007

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF POHNPEI)
B. 19/2330Z
C. 16.90N
D. 153.87E
E. FOUR/HIMA-8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/2001Z 16.32N 153.65E SSMS
19/2057Z 16.47N 153.65E SSMS

MARTINEZ

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZOCT2015//
<snip>
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
154.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 192341Z METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, A 192343Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC 15-
20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1N
153.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS SOME
FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD AND POORLY
DEFINED LLCC. A 201051Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS WEAK WRAPPING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED MARGINAL DIVERGENCE
AND LOW VWS. GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF TY 25W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.