Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS; +180hr

[N2FSU]

+252hr

[LarryWx]

Question, why does the title say 'Possible NW Caribbean Development' when the GFS, Euro, and UKMet develop something in the Bay of Campeche?

Because there is actually something now in the SW Carib that at least a piece of is then progged to go into or near the Gulf of Honduras BEFORE any possible move into the B of C. It will be in/near the WC for several more days. The thread is based on an existing entity rather than a modeled threat although it had been a modeled threat for the NW Caribbean. I suspect this thread will transition to a B of C genesis thread eventually assuming the modeled threat there remains and if it doesn't form before that. But regardless, it has to first get out of the W Caribbean before the B of C comes into play. Also, some of that B of C formation seems to be related to energy coming up from the EPAC. I suspect another option is to go ahead and change this thread title to NW Caribbean/B of C now. If I were in charge of this thread, that's probably what I'd do. It is a rather complex situation.

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro; +240hr

[jlauderdal]

Well a lot of GFS Ensembles have Southern Florida in the bullseye again but in the long-range. The GFS (Giving Florida Storms) doesn't want to let Florida of the hook!

gfs hasnt let florida off the hook for ten years and it has been wrong every time as far as a direct hit

[NDG]

Currently there's too much shear over the NW Caribbean, best conditions over the south central Caribbean.
I like the idea of a system crossing over to the BOC from the EPAC, but it could be just a sheared mess by then.

[LarryWx]

Currently there's too much shear over the NW Caribbean, best conditions over the south central Caribbean.
I like the idea of a system crossing over to the BOC from the EPAC, but it could be just a sheared mess by then.

The higher shear in the NW Caribbean has been addressed. It is forecasted fwiw to start dropping soon to light to occasionally moderate levels by both the GFS and Euro in much of the Gulf of Honduras. Will that actually happen? We'll see. Regardless, there is currently some vorticity as per what Gator said in the SW Caribbean, where shear is already light as you know. That is what is being followed by several here.

[northjaxpro]

No mention on TWO by NHC at 8 p.m.

[NDG]

Currently there's too much shear over the NW Caribbean, best conditions over the south central Caribbean.
I like the idea of a system crossing over to the BOC from the EPAC, but it could be just a sheared mess by then.

The higher shear in the NW Caribbean has been addressed. It is forecasted fwiw to start dropping soon to light to occasionally moderate levels by both the GFS and Euro in much of the Gulf of Honduras. Will that actually happen? We'll see. Regardless, there is currently some vorticity as per what Gator said in the SW Caribbean, where shear is already light as you know. That is what is being followed by several here.

Well thank you for your hospitality

[floridasun78]

it maybe five day forecast not here yet go on nhc outllok or think models want on vacation

[floridasun78]

what i notice on sat pic that maybe anticyclone form in sw Caribbean and sw Caribbean put storm need form and weaking as doing now but anticyclone could help

[LarryWx]

1) NDG, you're welcome.

2) Florida,
Nice find. I just realized per the GFS that, indeed, there is an anticyclone aloft at 200 mb in that part of the SW Caribbean. Furthermore, the GFS forecasts that that 200 mb high will move NW slowly in tandem with whatever there might happen to be underneath it. The more I analyze this, the more I realize why the model consensus had been developing this. Let's see if thunderstorms return underneath that high tonight during DMAX.

[AutoPenalti]

What does that mean exactly?

[Hammy]

it maybe five day forecast not here yet go on nhc outllok

More than likely the case. GFS has the fastest development of the models NHC uses, and even then nothing until 168 hours.

[LarryWx]

What does that mean exactly?

An anticyclone/high aloft is usually by itself conducive for tropical development underneath at the surface. 200 mb is a level well up in the atmosphere...somewhere near 37K to 42K feet above sea level. To compare, 1,000 mb is not much above the ground on average.
When there is a high aloft, that means that air up there is diverging away from it. That creates a bit of a vacuum of sorts aloft, which tends to cause rising air from the surface to be sucked up like in a vacuum. This rising air tends to cause low pressure to form at the surface.

[Hammy]

Wind profile at day nine doesn't look tropical but quite frontal.

[floridasun78]

larry look at south west carribbean north Panama you see sat pic their bit circulation but without storm that were weather map showing low at maybe this beginning what model showing

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET shows a 1007MB low over the south-central Yucatan at 144 hours:

[LarryWx]

larry look at south west carribbean north Panama you see sat pic their bit circulation but without storm that were weather map showing low at maybe this beginning what model showing

Florida,
I'm trying to find a counterclockwise low level circ. but don't see it yet. Please, if you can, tell me approximately what are the latitude and longitude. If you can't tell, that's ok. Thanks.
The clockwise upper level flow is easy to see though.

[floridasun78]

larry look at south west carribbean north Panama you see sat pic their bit circulation but without storm that were weather map showing low at maybe this beginning what model showing

Florida,
I'm trying to find a counterclockwise low level circ. but don't see it yet. Please, if you can, tell me approximately what are the latitude and longitude. If you can't tell, that's ok. Thanks.
The clockwise upper level flow is easy to see though.

it area 10 and 80 lat lon north Panama