Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[N2FSU]

0Z Euro: crossover into B of C from EPAC hour 192.

Edit: At hour 240, hits far SE LA tip at 997 mb moving NE toward MS/AL/far W FL Panhandle.

0Z Euro +240hr

[N2FSU]

0Z GFS; +240hr

[Alyono]

6Z weaker and more frontal

[Weatherwatcher98]

6Z weaker and more frontal

Most likely Scenario.

[Blown Away]

TAFB dropped the low in the NW Caribbean, but has a Tropical wave moving westward into this region in 72 hours... Turbulent pattern developing in this region with Gales being predicted in the EPAC...

[gatorcane]

The 00Z UKMET has a 1005MB low just west of the Yucatan with little movement at 144 hours. Notice the ridge has broken down across the Gulf to the north.

[psyclone]

the Gulf of Tehuantepec is a hot spot for gales this time of year as mid latitude weather begins to creep south...not sure if this phenom is responsible for the gales referenced on the TAFB map or not but it makes sense with the higher pressure to the north.. I thought this link was most interesting:


http://www.oceanweatherservices.com/fea ... epec_gales

[PTrackerLA]

The 00z Euro puts down a large area of 6"-15" of rain over SE and southern LA. Good thing we are in a severe drought right now. Not sure I'm buying a true crossover but the GFS and Euro seem to be agreeing on a potentially big rainfall event over the northern Gulf Coast late next week.

[northjaxpro]

Could come to fruition. If we get some tropical/ hybrid system to develop during the next week across the BOC/Western GOM, the Polar High is forecast to shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early next week. That will shift the flow to southerly in the GOM by mid week. That could lead to a potential big rainfall event along portions of the North-Central Gulf region /NE GOM late next week.

[Dean4Storms]

0z ECM at 240 hours has 10 meter wind gusts to 51kts in southern periphery about 100 miles south of the center just off the SE LA Coast.

Maybe a weak Tropical or Sub-Trop. Storm is the worse solution I've seen.

[Sanibel]

Belize

[CourierPR]

Belize

Meaning what?

[WeatherEmperor]

I think the reason why the NHC currently has no development expected in the NW Caribbean in the Outlooks is because they have a 40% development chance in the Eac right near the coast. I see they have an Orange 40% development area in the Epac Outlook. It looks like they are thinking development happens on the Epac side. It remains to be seen if they think it will cross over into the BOC.

[gatorcane]

12Z MU is stronger and tropical-looking in the Western GOM at 192 hours.

Looks like landfall near Texas/LA boarder at 210 hours as a strong TS.

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS sticks with the EPAC crossover theory, although it's almost a week away (+162hr)

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC hits far SE LA at hour 198 with a nontropical cyclone.

[N2FSU]

+210hr

[HurrMark]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z MU is stronger and tropical-looking in the Western GOM at 192 hours.

Looks like landfall near Texas/LA boarder at 210 hours as a strong TS.

[quote] Stronger than 06Z, but not quite as strong as 00Z. Still a week till anything forms.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Not Buying ANY of these models at this point.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont think any thing going happen outlook have no circle at 2pm