Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

will be interesting to see pattern of ridge placement over next few runs. from not there initially and showing anything developing going to the n, and ne, to there and any development heading west, to retreating eastward and any development back to heading more northerly. if ridge is going to be there or not, and where it is, has implications on development possibility (and shear strength) and where anything could go if it develops. watching the trend of what each model does with that ridge will be key.

[stormlover2013]

yeah i don't see them doing anything till maybe Saturday

[Stormcenter]

I'm confused here, I was under the impression whatever might develop wouldn't do so until next weekend. So there is no reason why the NHC
would show any possible areas of development this far out. IMO

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: very similar at hour 162 to the 0Z Euro at 174. Let's see if there is another central US Gulf coast hit.

Edit: 12Z Euro looking like it will come into northern Gulf coast further west.....

No, it turned more ENE and didn't even make landfall at 240.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF long-range heads due east in the NW GOM missing landfall in the U.S somehow, also looks like it might be kindaof frontal or extratropical at the end?

But the important thing is this is all long-range. If the models keeping shifting more west, there will be no crossover or BOC storm at all!

[stormlover2013]

with it being 9 days away i just don't know if I see this happening but hey you never know, lets see what it shows on sunday

[stormlover2013]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55


here is the great navy model lol

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro; +240hr




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[Dean4Storms]

ECMWF long-range heads due east in the NW GOM missing landfall in the U.S somehow, also looks like it might be kindaof frontal or extratropical at the end?

But the important thing is this is all long-range. If the models keeping shifting more west, there will be no crossover or BOC storm at all!

At 240hr the ECM has a 996mb TS south of the central Coast of LA moving ENE, winds near 50mph with highest gusts to near 70mph, stronger than the 00z run!

[fox13weather]

ECMWF long-range heads due east in the NW GOM missing landfall in the U.S somehow, also looks like it might be kindaof frontal or extratropical at the end?

But the important thing is this is all long-range. If the models keeping shifting more west, there will be no crossover or BOC storm at all!

At 240hr the ECM has a 996mb TS south of the central Coast of LA moving ENE, winds near 50mph with highest gusts to near 70mph, stronger than the 00z run!

and ???? Care to discuss the average margin of error at 240hr?

[Weatherwatcher98]

will be interesting to see pattern of ridge placement over next few runs. from not there initially and showing anything developing going to the n, and ne, to there and any development heading west, to retreating eastward and any development back to heading more northerly. if ridge is going to be there or not, and where it is, has implications on development possibility (and shear strength) and where anything could go if it develops. watching the trend of what each model does with that ridge will be key.

I think it depends on the fronts as well.

[Weatherwatcher98]

ECMWF long-range heads due east in the NW GOM missing landfall in the U.S somehow, also looks like it might be kindaof frontal or extratropical at the end?

But the important thing is this is all long-range. If the models keeping shifting more west, there will be no crossover or BOC storm at all!

At 240hr the ECM has a 996mb TS south of the central Coast of LA moving ENE, winds near 50mph with highest gusts to near 70mph, stronger than the 00z run!

and ???? Care to discuss the average margin of error at 240hr?

When I win Powerball I will

[psyclone]

ECMWF long-range heads due east in the NW GOM missing landfall in the U.S somehow, also looks like it might be kindaof frontal or extratropical at the end?

But the important thing is this is all long-range. If the models keeping shifting more west, there will be no crossover or BOC storm at all!

At 240hr the ECM has a 996mb TS south of the central Coast of LA moving ENE, winds near 50mph with highest gusts to near 70mph, stronger than the 00z run!

and ???? Care to discuss the average margin of error at 240hr?

This is a classic modelstorm thread. threats are always 10 days away. here's something to chew on. the secondary late season peak takes place on about 10-20, after which TC frequency goes into a tailspin and collapses by month end...and that says nothing about nino climo which tends to hasten the end of the Atlantic season. Put another way...sand is going through the hour glass at a good clip...time is running out.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Exactly. If anything forms, it will most likely be NON Tropical in Nature, especially this year.

[Dean4Storms]

ECMWF long-range heads due east in the NW GOM missing landfall in the U.S somehow, also looks like it might be kindaof frontal or extratropical at the end?

But the important thing is this is all long-range. If the models keeping shifting more west, there will be no crossover or BOC storm at all!

At 240hr the ECM has a 996mb TS south of the central Coast of LA moving ENE, winds near 50mph with highest gusts to near 70mph, stronger than the 00z run!

and ???? Care to discuss the average margin of error at 240hr?

Don't have enough room in these margins!

Btw, I knew a girl named Margen once and she was average at every hour!

[Nimbus]

nhc dont think any thing going happen outlook have no circle at 2pm

I don't think there is an infrared model based on dynamic concentricity.
Probably around 81 if they did.

[Sanibel]

A very weak broad wave axis near Belize right now IMO.

[gatorcane]

There is around 30K to 40K of shear across most of the Western Caribbean, this is a lot different than the models showed last week around this time. Also, the low-level voriticity is now mostly inland over the NW Honduras area. No development here.

On the other hand, there is a huge upper anticyclone that has moved west from the SW Caribbean to the EPAC heading to the area just south of the coast of Mexico where NHC has the 40% chance of development for the Gulf of Tehuantepec low. Upper-level winds look very conducive for development here. That is where development is possible within the next 5 days, not the Atlantic side.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherwatcher98]

There is around 30K to 40K of shear across most of the Western Caribbean, this is a lot different than the models showed last week around this time. Also, the low-level voriticity is now mostly inland over the NW Honduras area. No development here.

On the other hand, there is a huge upper anticyclone that has moved west from the SW Caribbean to the EPAC heading to the area just south of the coast of Mexico where NHC has the 40% chance of development for the Gulf of Tehuantepec low. Upper-level winds look very conducive for development here. That is where development is possible within the next 5 days, not the Atlantic side.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree as we are not talking about the short range.

[Weatherwatcher98]

A very weak broad wave axis near Belize right now IMO.

Yes I saw the "spin".