ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:06 pm

Post here about the models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:09 pm

GFS Ensembles.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#3 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:29 pm

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#4 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:32 pm

Euro seems to develop a weak low in about 120 hours but sends it into Mexico. As expected the GFS westward trend continues and has it developing over land (unlikely due to the mountains there.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:36 pm

The BAMS.

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SHIP does not intensify this.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#6 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:39 pm

i love the bams lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#7 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:42 pm

12z EURO has a 997 TC roughly 100 miles SW of Brownsville at 180hrs...
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Re:

#8 Postby HurrMark » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:42 pm

Hammy wrote:Euro seems to develop a weak low in about 120 hours but sends it into Mexico. As expected the GFS westward trend continues and has it developing over land (unlikely due to the mountains there.)


Not sure how far into the model you see, but I see a 1000 mb low just off the N MX coast at 168 hrs...looks like it would move north to NNE...we will see how it propagates.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:49 pm

Euro suggests a 996mb low SSW of Galveston at hour 192
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#10 Postby HurrMark » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:51 pm

I see landfall near the TX/LA border at 216 hrs as a 987 mb hurricane...
Last edited by HurrMark on Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:51 pm

EC with a hurricane into LA / TX border
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:52 pm

12z Euro hurricane into Cameron Parish, LA
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#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:52 pm

:uarrow: Yep, Euro 216 hrs.

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#14 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:59 pm

985mb on full-res on Weatherbell @landfall.
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Re:

#15 Postby Sambucol » Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Yep, Euro 216 hrs.

Image

I'll be surprised if that happens!! Rain is fine. But not an organized storm!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#16 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:33 pm

GOM is warm, wouldn't surprise me something blows up like this, i feel this will end up being into mexico but could be wrong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#17 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:37 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:GOM is warm, wouldn't surprise me something blows up like this, i feel this will end up being into mexico but could be wrong
Thinking Models with shift east. Finding it hard to Argue with Climatology here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#18 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:50 pm

Lots of time for things to change but if the EURO shows the same scenario on Monday then climo is out the window with this one. IMO


Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:GOM is warm, wouldn't surprise me something blows up like this, i feel this will end up being into mexico but could be wrong
Thinking Models with shift east. Finding it hard to Argue with Climatology here.
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#19 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:54 pm

The UKMET moves the core of the 500MB ridge out into the Atlantic quicker and hence shows 92L turning north sooner in the BOC than the GFS and ECMWF:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#20 Postby ROCK » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:13 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Lots of time for things to change but if the EURO shows the same scenario on Monday then climo is out the window with this one. IMO


Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:GOM is warm, wouldn't surprise me something blows up like this, i feel this will end up being into mexico but could be wrong
Thinking Models with shift east. Finding it hard to Argue with Climatology here.



I totally agree with you on this.....
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