ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Hammy]

Euro hugs Mexico/Texas coasts.

Significantly farther west than the last run. Chances of anything actually coming of it are slim to none at this point.

[fendie]

Euro hugs Mexico/Texas coasts.

Significantly farther west than the last run. Chances of anything actually coming of it are slim to none at this point.

The 0z Euro isn't significantly further west until 7 days out and if there's anything I've learned from following models it's that long-range forecasts are subject to huge margins of error. In fact, the 0z GFS takes the area of low pressure SSE after 7 days out back into the Gulf of Mexico after hitting Brownsville while the Euro tracks it NNE through the AR/TX/LA border. I do agree there has been a westward shift over the past couple model runs and that this trend would lessen development chances of a tropical storm, but once again it's in the 7+ day range.

I have no clue what will come of this but I am happy to see more total rain for drought stricken areas of TX on the 0z Euro and GFS. Let's hope this becomes a trend and we ultimately see a broad area of low pressure track from the BoC into South Central Texas before merging with a frontal boundary in the southern plains. The moisture from the Gulf combining with Pacific fetch could lead to some nice rainfall totals across central and eastern Texas. Either way this will be fun to track as the pattern is atypical for late October and Mother Nature may just crush our climatological predispositions.

Edit: added disclaimer

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[stormlover2013]

Gfs 06 run back towards Texas now

[Weatherwatcher98]

Gfs 06 run back towards Texas now

After burying in Mexico. Not buying that

[Weatherwatcher98]

Euro is SE of previous run

[Alyono]

the EC is becoming twice as worthless

Brings the first low into south TX as a TD

Then forms a strong TS/cane from what looks to be another low and brings it into Louisiana next Sunday

[Weatherwatcher98]

the EC is becoming twice as worthless

Brings the first low into south TX as a TD

Then forms a strong TS/cane from what looks to be another low and brings it into Louisiana next Sunday

That's Northwest of the last run, that was southeast of the previous run, That was west. So maybe we are getting some agreement between the two

[stormlover2013]

Euro could be wrong but it's north worthless it has been consistent the last month but could be totally wrong

[floridasun78]

this were most invest time year go their dont go into west gulf that much

[stormlover2013]

Throw that out, this year pattern has been so different because the pattern fits strong El Ninos that peak early after a long build..I am ignoring climatology and etc

[Weatherwatcher98]

Throw that out, this year pattern has been so different because the pattern fits strong El Ninos that peak early after a long build..I am ignoring climatology and etc

Throw everything out. Looking like this is going to be a bust.

[stormlover2013]

Lol bust how will it be a bust??? Going to get good moisture in Texas which Texas needs!!!

[Hammy]

Throw that out, this year pattern has been so different because the pattern fits strong El Ninos that peak early after a long build..I am ignoring climatology and etc

To be honest I've been ignoring climatology since 2013's failed hurricane season.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Lol bust how will it be a bust??? Going to get good moisture in Texas which Texas needs!!!

I hope you guys do.

[rolltide]

See a few posts about ignoring climatology. Not smart as this is not the first El nino in history and climatology includes past El ninos as well.

[Hammy]

Euro isn't developing any more than a very broad, somewhat elongated low through 192 hours. Major change from earlier and another strong sign nothing is going to develop out of this.

[La Breeze]

Lol bust how will it be a bust??? Going to get good moisture in Texas which Texas needs!!!

Hopefully, you will be able to send some over the border to us in LA. We're in desperate need as well.

[jlauderdal]

whatever happened with the gfs to south florida solution...

[Alyono]

Euro isn't developing any more than a very broad, somewhat elongated low through 192 hours. Major change from earlier and another strong sign nothing is going to develop out of this.

its because the trough over the midwest is totally different

But of course, everyone will still keep saying KING EURO, when it has been no better than the others this year

[wxman57]

whatever happened with the gfs to south florida solution...

That would have required an earlier and farther NE-E development (NW Caribbean tomorrow). Also the big high center developing (developed) over the SE U.S. is protecting that region.