2015 EPAC Season

#801 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:46 pm

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending
from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

#802 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2015 1:44 pm

Invest 97E is up

#803 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:08 pm

GFS also hinting at lower pressures in the western east pacific in the long range as well.

I have a feeling that this Nino may prolong this season.

#804 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:32 pm

230 ACE units to date. 19 units away from #2 busiest season on record.

#805 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:10 pm

Ntxw, what do we need for #1?

I think if Olaf recurves + with help from Patricia, (hope everyone in Mexico stays safe and prepares for a landfalling storm) we should be able to get that #2 spot.

#806 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:30 pm

We won't get #1. 1992 is at like 290 ACE. That's safe.

However, this season is not done. GFS has us to Waldo during the next 2 weeks which is far fetched, but I'm seeing hints in the EPS/UKMET/GFS/NASA guidance of 1-2 more storms after Patrica in the next week or so.

hurricaneCW · #807 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:30 am

Completely disagree about #1 being safe. I think the season still has legs and will last much longer than normal. Anything is possible.

#808 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 7:46 am

hurricaneCW wrote:Completely disagree about #1 being safe. I think the season still has legs and will last much longer than normal. Anything is possible.

I know the GFS is bullish in the long-range, but it seems to go through phases of nothing being showed in the long range to lots of activity. I think we will likely see 1-2 more systems, but I highly doubt we eclipse 1992. We're ~60 units away and typically, one should expect 10 or so more ACE units max. Of course, this is not a typical season, but I can't envision 60 more ACE units.

#809 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 12:42 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late this week or over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some slow development
of this system while it moves slowly toward the east-northeast or
northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

#810 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 7:51 pm

239 units. 10 more units and we tie 1990. That should be surpassed pretty easily with Olaf still got some time and Patricia. We may be near 255-260 when both are done which is solidly second place.

#811 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:08 pm

With Patricia and Olaf still going strong 1990 will fall. 248.730 ACE to date and 249 is the number to beat. #1 is 1992 at 290 units.

galaxy401 · #812 Postby **galaxy401** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:25 am

Well, this will be a season to remember...

#813 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:34 am

I think Sandra was the name that deserved to break the record, or at least be historic. Follow in the footsteps of her similarly-named sister in 2012.

#814 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:05 am

Closing in on 260 units, 1992 is probably starting to take notice. 270 units not out of realm between Olaf (second life) and Patricia (though landfall will limit her ACE). One more long tracker and 1992 could be challenged.

But really after the historic recon mission last night into Patricia just out of words. 1997 El Nino Epac season had Linda, 2015 has Patricia.

#815 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:59 pm

Ntxw, just for you:

#816 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:Closing in on 260 units, 1992 is probably starting to take notice. 270 units not out of realm between Olaf (second life) and Patricia (though landfall will limit her ACE). One more long tracker and 1992 could be challenged.

But really after the historic recon mission last night into Patricia just out of words. 1997 El Nino Epac season had Linda, 2015 has Patricia.

If models are correct on another WWB forming, we could potentially see one more EPAC long tracker.

#817 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:19 pm

Should be close to 270 soon per Ryan Maue's values. That means 1992 would be 20 units away. Two decent hurricanes or one long tracker could do it. I hope it does, it might as well, preferably the long tracker out to sea. In the already historic 2015 season for the EPAC by many measures. Also another major would break the tie of 10.

#818 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:53 pm

This could do it.

hurricaneCW · #819 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:08 am

So much for #1 being out of reach. Olaf should easily get us over 270, and if forecasts are correct then we may see a long tracker eventually. There's still several weeks left for something to occur and I'd be surprised if things were to shut down for good.

#820 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:56 am

Somehow I don't trust the numbers on the weatherbell page. I can't find a list of ACE for every single storm and the total seems to high to me.

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