Models: Possible TS Marty threat to Los Angeles/San Diego...

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Derecho
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Models: Possible TS Marty threat to Los Angeles/San Diego...

#1 Postby Derecho » Fri Sep 19, 2003 7:48 pm

If you're bored by the Atlantic now.

It's 7 days down the road however. And, of course, no El Nino, which doesn't help SST-wise.

LA/SD WAS hit by an honest-to-goodness TS in 1939 (50+ mph winds and huge rains).

Really, really hard to do, need a strong trough at exactly the right time.

A lot of models do show a sharp right turn down the road, but there's a lot of spread, still.

For a couple of model runs, Cat 5 Linda in 1997 was actually shown making LA as a minimal cane (which would have been possible with fast enough movement) but the troughing ended up fizzling out.
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Watching it

#2 Postby btangy » Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:32 pm

I couldn't take the Palm Beach forum anymore... so many pretentious and arrogant posters. Had to come over here. See a lot of familiar names.

Watching that storm here in LA. Most likely will never make it this far north. I remember with Hurricane Linda... the media hyped it up so much that the NWS in Oxnard put out a special weather bulletin telling everyone to calm down and stop calling their office.

Late Sept is the time of year where we can get remnants of hurricanes passing over the area. Make for great sunsets. It does take just the right conditions for a hurricane or TS to recurve into SoCal and even N Baja. There has to be an unusually strong trough approaching the west coast and the hurricane has to hold enough convection together to be steered by a deep layer (which is hard considering it has to travel into the cold CA current and usually a stable stratocum field).
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ColdFront77

#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Sep 20, 2003 1:36 am

Hello btangy. Nice to see you here at Storm2K. :) I believe you Storm2K's second or third member from California. :D

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=15079
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weatherlover427

#4 Postby weatherlover427 » Sat Sep 20, 2003 2:35 am

You live in LA, btangy? I am in Huntington Beach. :) Nice to have someone in the area on the board. :)

I am also watching this system for obvious reasons. My NWS is mentioning the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. ;)
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#5 Postby btangy » Sat Sep 20, 2003 2:52 am

From the Oxnard discussion tonight:

BY WED SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MARTY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE INTO SOCAL...BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE DISTRICT.

Would tend to think Marty won't get much further north than C Baja because once it loses its convection, it'll turn toward the west with the low level steering. Air is very dry and stable N of Marty. Probably just some high clouds middle of next week.
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