EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2015101718, , BEST, 0, 128N, 935W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP972015  10/17/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    28    31    39    49    55    61    64    58    50    45
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    28    31    39    49    55    61    64    58    37    30
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    23    24    27    32    39    45    52    55    36    29
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        14    14    14    12    11     7     9     8     5    11    16    15     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -1    -1    -3    -3    -2    -1    -1    -2     0     7     3     7
SHEAR DIR        141   138   136   142   139   135   163   172   140   143   171   186   216
SST (C)         30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.5  30.5  30.6  30.7  30.6  30.3  29.7
POT. INT. (KT)   167   166   166   166   165   165   167   167   169   170   170   168   162
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     5     5     6     6     6     5     7     6     8     7     8
700-500 MB RH     85    86    85    84    83    81    80    84    85    86    85    85    82
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    11    11    12    12    12    14    15    17    19    14     9     6
850 MB ENV VOR    61    67    74    68    67    47    41    55    69    95    94    94    79
200 MB DIV       118   132   124   115   103   115   115   108   130   126   167   177   137
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     2     2    -1    -2    -1    -8     2
LAND (KM)        232   234   236   235   233   246   248   233   220   136     8  -140  -204
LAT (DEG N)     12.8  13.1  13.3  13.6  13.8  13.8  13.6  13.6  13.8  14.7  16.0  17.7  19.6
LONG(DEG W)     93.5  93.8  94.1  94.4  94.6  94.9  95.4  96.1  96.9  97.7  98.2  98.7  98.6
STM SPEED (KT)     5     4     4     3     2     2     3     3     5     6     8     9     9
HEAT CONTENT      49    45    41    38    36    36    37    38    42    44    21    49     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  7      CX,CY:  -6/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  510  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  71.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   6.  15.  25.  33.  38.  41.  44.  47.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   8.   8.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   7.   9.  11.  13.   7.   0.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   0.  -2.  -5.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   3.   3.   3.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   8.  11.  20.  29.  35.  41.  44.  38.  30.  25.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST     10/17/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  13.0 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 146.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  41.8 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 118.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  82.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST     10/17/15  18 UTC         ##
   ##    ����������������������������������������

[Weatherwatcher98]

Now a Complex Situation in the Atlantic/BOC got even more complex.

[NDG]

Not at all complicated, is very simple, 97E has the best UL environment along with very warm waters to work with.
97E develops further would mean 92L chances of development over the BOC will be very low.

[Yellow Evan]

Now a Complex Situation in the Atlantic/BOC got even more complex.

How is it more complex?

[Weatherwatcher98]

So the models were showing 97e all along? Why did the NHC highlight 92L moving into the bay of Campeche? I am beginning to think nothing will form in the BOC or survive a crossover.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending
from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the low moves generally northwestward. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

So the models were showing 97e all along? Why did the NHC highlight 92L moving into the bay of Campeche? I am beginning to think nothing will form in the BOC or survive a crossover.

It's possible both areas may form. It's also possible the NHC was expecting 97e to form, but also gave 92L a shot.

The NHC has had this tagged, long before this was invest'd.

[cycloneye]

11 PM PDT:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending
from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the low moves generally northwestward. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending
from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves generally
northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
associated with the low could occur over portions of Central America
and southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP972015  10/18/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    26    29    35    42    46    54    59    57    53    53
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    26    29    35    42    46    54    59    57    53    45
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    24    27    30    34    39    46    52    55    50
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13    11     8     5     5     4     6     2     6     7     9     7    18
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     0    -1     0     0     0     0    -2    -3    -3    -2     1    -2
SHEAR DIR        119   109    96   121   130   157   191   212   124   187   193   177   192
SST (C)         30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.5  30.4  30.4  30.2  30.1
POT. INT. (KT)   165   167   166   165   165   166   167   168   169   168   169   167   166
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     7     7     6     7     5     6     6     6     6     9     8
700-500 MB RH     81    79    77    78    77    76    80    83    85    87    84    78    72
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    11    11    10    11    11    11    11    13    15    13    10  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    68    65    58    51    46    41    49    50    65    70    74    75   103
200 MB DIV       132    82    72    86    95    84    89    83   111   148   134   138   102
700-850 TADV       0    -1     0     0     0     1     1     2    -1     0    -3    -3     0
LAND (KM)        256   230   206   197   189   235   301   300   310   277   222   123   -33
LAT (DEG N)     12.6  13.0  13.4  13.6  13.7  13.5  13.2  13.0  13.1  13.7  14.8  16.3  18.1
LONG(DEG W)     93.6  93.7  93.8  93.8  93.9  94.3  95.1  96.2  97.6  99.0 100.3 101.5 101.6
STM SPEED (KT)     2     4     3     2     1     3     5     6     7     8     9     9     9
HEAT CONTENT      50    46    41    39    38    39    38    39    50    53    55    41    48

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  0/  0      CX,CY:   0/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  649  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  69.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   6.  15.  25.  33.  38.  41.  44.  47.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.   9.  10.  10.  10.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.  -1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.   7.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   7.   5.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   9.  15.  22.  26.  34.  39.  37.  33.  33.

[Yellow Evan]

0z UKMET



0z ECMWF



6z GFS

[cycloneye]

This may be a strong one and to make landfall.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 425 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, have
become more concentrated since this time yesterday. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early this week while
the low moves generally northwestward. Interests along the southern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Ntxw]

Lots of rising motion coming near 100W. Most of the EPAC for that matter.



I would be very cautious for people along the western coast of Mexico the next few weeks

[Darvince]

This one is looking almost guaranteed to be far more destructive than 92L, unless 92 dumps a tonn of rain on S TX and the eastern Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

Showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles off the
coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala are associated with a broad
area of low pressure, which is interacting with strong northerly
winds blowing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Although some
development is possible during the next couple of days, a tropical
depression is more likely to form later this week once the low
begins to move west-northwestward and then northwestward away from
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Interests along the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy
rains are possible over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and
El Salvador during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near the coast of
Guatemala westward to along the south coast of Mexico are associated
with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The low is interacting with strong
northerly winds blowing through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into
the eastern Pacific, which could temporarily be impeding tropical
cyclone formation. Although some development of this system is still
possible during the next day or so, a tropical depression is more
likely to form around mid-week once the low begins to move
west-northwestward or northwestward away from this region. Interests
along the south-central and southwestern coasts of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance during the next few days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Looks like this could be a fairly strong system at landfall.

11 AM PDT:

Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure system located about 250 miles
southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
organized. The circulation of the low also appears be better
defined than yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for
continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the low moves west-northwestward
or northwestward offshore of the coast of southeastern Mexico.
Interests along the south-central and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent