EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

That structure matches up with what I was seeing on the visible in terms of organization. I suspect higher winds will be found in the SEQ

[cycloneye]

Winds going up.

203630 1255N 09912W 8417 01523 0016 +183 +180 206041 044 053 032 00
203700 1256N 09914W 8441 01496 0012 +185 +181 207050 052 053 042 00

[Alyono]

probably a 45 kt storm based upon the data. This is given the fact that the plane has dropped to 850mb

[cycloneye]

He goes more bullish.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 25m25 minutes ago
good bet that Tropical Storm Patricia is rapidly intensifying.
Looks close to hurricane strength already.

[Alyono]

He goes more bullish.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 25m25 minutes ago
good bet that Tropical Storm Patricia is rapidly intensifying.
Looks close to hurricane strength already.

Maue has had a very distinct high bias the past couple of seasons. nothing in the data indicate this is anywhere close to hurricane intensity. Not intending to bash, but it is becoming hard to tell him and Bastardi apart at times

[Yellow Evan]

He goes more bullish.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 25m25 minutes ago
good bet that Tropical Storm Patricia is rapidly intensifying.
Looks close to hurricane strength already.

Maue's estimates are sometimes a little too high IMO, but this is definitely rapidly intensifying.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow.

[1900hurricane]

Just looking at IR, the increase in apparent organization just since the time of the GPM pass above is pretty impressive.



Time of GPM pass.



Most recent sat frame at the time of this post.

[Kingarabian]

Glad we have recon for this. I remember in prior seasons (after 2009) that recon stopped flying into storms that were landfalling on Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Just looking at IR, the increase in apparent organization just since the time of the GPM pass above is pretty impressive.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2015EP20/4KMIRIMG/2015EP20_4KMIRIMG_201510211630.GIF[xmg]

Time of GPM pass.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2015EP20/4KMIRIMG/2015EP20_4KMIRIMG_201510212015.GIF[img]

Most recent sat frame at the time of this post.

1900, this appears to be a small system which means they usually strengthen really quickly. Bad news for Mexico.

[Dave C]

You can really see the banding getting better each passing hour. Structure getting a nice circular appearance.

[Yellow Evan]

Glad we have recon for this. I remember in prior seasons (after 2009) that recon stopped flying into storms that were landfalling on Mexico.

Recon has always flown if a system was a threat to Mexico. Dates back to 1998 I think.

[cycloneye]

You are right Alyono about the pressures higher at 850 mbs.Lowest at second pass was 999 mbs.

[Kingarabian]

Glad we have recon for this. I remember in prior seasons (after 2009) that recon stopped flying into storms that were landfalling on Mexico.

Recon has always flown if a system was a threat to Mexico. Dates back to 1998 I think.

I'm not sure if it was 2010 or 2011 but they stopped and focused more on the Atlantic side. I think it was due to sequesters.

[cycloneye]

They went with 50kts.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...NOAA PLANE FINDS PATRICIA STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 99.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

[Yellow Evan]

Glad we have recon for this. I remember in prior seasons (after 2009) that recon stopped flying into storms that were landfalling on Mexico.

Recon has always flown if a system was a threat to Mexico. Dates back to 1998 I think.

I'm not sure if it was 2010 or 2011 but they stopped and focused more on the Atlantic side. I think it was due to sequesters.

Nothing needed to be flown into 2010. 2011 had recon in Dora, Hillary, and Jova IIRC. Sequestion was back in 2013 IIRC.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems that the forecast was done pre-latest pass.

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 212052
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 99.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Kingarabian]

Nothing needed to be flown into 2010. 2011 had recon in Dora, Hillary, and Jova IIRC. Sequestion was back in 2013 IIRC.

Something like that.

Also, does western Mexico not have radar? I rarely see radar images being posted.

[Yellow Evan]

Also, does western Mexico not have radar? I rarely see radar images being posted.

They have radar but it's limited. This is a bit south of the nearest radar (Acapulco). Sadly, this is the closest it will come to radar until landfall.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Patricia has become much better organized since this morning. The
aircraft reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt about 15 n mi
southeast of the center along with surface wind estimates of 50-55
kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum
pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 995 mb. Based on this
information the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.

The storm has continued to accelerate, possibly aided be some
reformation of the center, and the initial motion is now 275/14.
Other than this, the track forecast scenario from the previous
advisory still looks good. The tropical cyclone is expected to
initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a
low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After 12-24 hours,
Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the
ridge and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the
adjacent northeastern Pacific. While the model guidance remains in
excellent agreement with this scenario, there has been a westward
shift since the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also
adjusted westward. However, the new forecast track is a little to
the east of the center of the guidance envelope.

Now that Patricia has become better organized, it should strengthen
for the next 48 hours or so until a combination of increasing shear
and land interaction halts intensification. The intensity guidance
is forecasting a stronger peak intensity than previously, and the
new intensity forecast is adjusted upward accordingly. The new
forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. However,
some of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity,
and it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a
stronger system than currently forecast. After landfall, Patricia
should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western
Mexico.

The current forecast track requires a hurricane warning for the
southwestern coast of Mexico at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.1N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven