Texas Fall-2015

[Rgv20]

Its not everyday the whole state of Texas is under the gun for heavy rain! 6zNAM shows nicely the center of what is left of Patricia passing over the RGV on Saturday on emerging in the GOM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
542 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

TXZ248>257-221800-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
542 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...

TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THIS...
HURRICANE PATRICIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS DEEPENING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS INTERACTION WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL OCCUR FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF HIDALGO...CAMERON...BROOKS...WILLACY AND
KENEDY. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF KENEDY...WILLACY AND
CAMERON.

RESIDENTS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING
OF POORLY-DRAINING AND LOW-LYING AREAS AND NUISANCE FLOODING OF
ROADS THAT HAVE A HISTORY OF FLOODING AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IN THE EVENT THAT
FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

[Ntxw]

Patricia is explosively intensifying, recon may just find cat 5 sometime today or tomorrow. Cat 5 in the gulf...or rather Epac. Prayers to those in mexico

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: see tireman summer is not undefeated, climo ate it. Maybe we will see sightings of wxman57 on his waterbike and Portastorm tubing down his street.

I'm in Orlando this week. No waterbike needed. Looks like a West Gulf Low (non-tropical) for the weekend. Lots of rain for Texas.

Orlando...humm...Mouse World, perhaps?

[Tireman4]

Patricia is explosively intensifying, recon may just find cat 5 sometime today or tomorrow. Cat 5 in the gulf...or rather Epac. Prayers to those in mexico

Yep. This could be a rough couple of days for the folks down there. My gracious..a possible Cat 5 in October...

[dhweather]

12Z NAM rolling in, here's total accumulated precip 45 hours out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My biggest fear is flash flooding obviously from this event. The first thing that comes to mind is the events that took pace in May. What im hoping for in this event, is that the rain will not be of a rain fall rate of 3"/hr etc like it was in May. On my personal weather station, i saw 4.8"/hr of rain that crazy May evening in houston. It takes 15 minutes for that to calculate too. Think about that. Lets hope its a more consistent, moving type of rain instead of the massive cells training over the same area. With PW values like this and deep tropical moisture, im kind of worried though.

[dhweather]

Patricia is explosively intensifying, recon may just find cat 5 sometime today or tomorrow. Cat 5 in the gulf...or rather Epac. Prayers to those in mexico

Yep. This could be a rough couple of days for the folks down there. My gracious..a possible Cat 5 in October...

CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!






Seriously - this will have major impacts on Mexico. From the NHC:

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent
microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery.
The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little
conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery.
Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and
provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the
hurricane.

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid
strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of
very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near
the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this
evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little
change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as
southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia
should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should
dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours.

There's a good shot at 125kts - 145MPH strong cat 4, a little more makes her a cat 5. Extremely dangerous regardless.

All that moisture will get sucked up into Texas and contribute significantly to our rains.

[dhweather]

My biggest fear is flash flooding obviously from this event. The first thing that comes to mind is the events that took pace in May. What im hoping for in this event, is that the rain will not be of a rain fall rate of 3"/hr etc like it was in May. On my personal weather station, i saw 4.8"/hr of rain that crazy May evening in houston. It takes 15 minutes for that to calculate too. Think about that. Lets hope its a more consistent, moving type of rain instead of the massive cells training over the same area. With PW values like this and deep tropical moisture, im kind of worried though.

No kidding, PWATS in the 99th percentile, over 2" at DFW, with a near continuous stream of rich tropical moisture flowing in, some bad things could happen. Practically the entire column will have rich tropical moisture in it, SE flow from the Gulf at the lower levels, SSW flow bringing all of the mid & upper level moisture from Patricia. Frankly this is a recipe for disaster.

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from Patricia discussion.

Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

[dhweather]

12Z NAM, 60 hour total precip

[dhweather]

12Z GFS looks to be really wet - this is only 24 hours out




42 hours out

[Ntxw]

GFS won't back down with 10-12+ inches of rain in parts of the metroplex. Another axis in south Texas of a foot with the remnants of patricia

[Texas Snowman]

from Larry Cosgrove on Facebook: "Numerical models are coming in, an they say: weekend and early next week flood disaster in Texas. I-35 corridor (75 miles either side) from Italy TX to Mexican border will be a debacle.

More later."

[Texas Snowman]

Texas and Kansas State are scheduled to play at 11 a.m. on Saturday in Austin. Wonder what effect all of this will have on the game/crowd?

[Tireman4]

HGX Morning AFD...

32
FXUS64 KHGX 221556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNSHINE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT HANDLING THE LARGE MCS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST VERY WELL. SO
FOR NOW...WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
THAT HAS LOWER POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER NUMBERS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

WE ARE STILL FOCUSING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVIEST RAINS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY FOCUSING SOME TIME ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 42
&&

[gboudx]

:uarrow: Texas and Kansas State are scheduled to play at 11 a.m. on Saturday in Austin. Wonder what effect all of this will have on the game/crowd?

Maybe they have to cancel the game if there is bad flooding in the ATX area. My LSU Tigers had their 1st game cancelled but that was because of persistent lightning which was pushing game time to start near midnight. Officials decided to cancel. Recently South Carolina had to move their "home" game with LSU to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge due to the flooding over there. It may depend on if both teams can manage a reschedule. But chances are, the game is played in a downpour. Too much money at stake for UT to miss a home game.

[1900hurricane]

Formula 1 is also in Austin this weekend. Could be a huge issue.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Formula 1 is also in Austin this weekend. Could be a huge issue.

Yep. Im a huge F1 fan. Not going this year. They race in the rain, but not in a deluge. Drivers have a limit. The practice days are on Friday/Saturday with the race on sunday. I think the race should be able to go on.

Also, 12z is still rolling but i just got a look at the 6z. I think the system we see next week will be similar, in some ways to what we get much of this winter. Also, right after it, nice 'arctic' front possibly. Its 10 days out but thats a big trough coming right into texas

[Brent]

Hi-res NAM: 31 inches down in SW TX, 17" area between DFW and Waco:



Oh and the 6z GFS and 12z GFS has highs in the 50s on Halloween for DFW.

[ROCK]

that is crazy values....I suspect that area will shift south if the Patricia remnants makes landfall further south along MX border and in fact gets into the GOM. this is a complex situation Patricia, approaching trof, another low forming in the GOM. Like the Perfect Storm scenario.