EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

HURRICANELONNY · #201 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:58 pm

Someone posted on Weather underground Dr. Masters site that Patricia remnants could turn into a storm on the Gulf side and effecting Texas. In fact the euro run show it:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_5.png

WeatherGuesser · #202 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:01 pm

^^ Already discussed here a couple of pages back.

HURRICANELONNY · #203 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:03 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:^^ Already discussed here a couple of pages back.

Oh. Didn't see a model topic for Patricia. So I posted it without knowing. :roll:

#204 Postby **Dave C** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:06 pm

Awesome stadium effect on that visable sat pic!

#205 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:08 pm

Yes indeed. Patricia has an awesome satellite presentation right now. I still think the eye will shrink to resemble a near pinhole later tonight.

#206 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:09 pm

Without constraints, this is a clear T7.0.

zeehag · #207 Postby **zeehag** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:10 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
zeehag wrote:making hotel reservations. will leave my boat to itself which scares me more than dying in a cane.
i am not happy.
when this is done with us i will own nothing and have no home. that scares me more than anything.
and i will have a heavy hotel bill i wont be able to pay. is that living? or is protecting my home from death by hurricane, which seems a sure thing at present.
yes i am going into a room. or taking over the hotel lobby.

How far inland is the room?

Also, how well-built is your home? If trends continue, the strongest winds may miss you.

my homeis a formosa 41 sailboat placed inthe marina at isla navidad, where there is a huge expensive hotel that overlooks us.
we are nestled into the rock that is the isla, is why i posted the picture of this area, when blown up large, there isseen a small marina tucked into the isla, between asmallpeninsula and the rock, protected from mot=st everything except mother natures best productions. i do not know if my pic av=ctually posted, i will try another one, with permission. it didnt work. is located here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/sksolitarybird/

#208 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:11 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 15:28:38 N Lon : 104:35:08 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.6mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -1.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

supercane4867 · #209 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:22 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Without constraints, this is a clear T7.0.

And not far away from a T7.5. Constraints should be broken anyway, Patricia is becoming one of the most impressive hurricanes in ages

#210 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:29 pm

I'd go up to at least 130-135 kt on the intermediate advisory, but I think the NHC will only raise it slightly if Recon is near.

#211 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:31 pm

#212 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:32 pm

zeehag wrote:making hotel reservations. will leave my boat to itself which scares me more than dying in a cane.
i am not happy.
when this is done with us i will own nothing and have no home. that scares me more than anything.
and i will have a heavy hotel bill i wont be able to pay. is that living? or is protecting my home from death by hurricane, which seems a sure thing at present.
yes i am going into a room. or taking over the hotel lobby.

I will be praying for you regardless, and so will everyone on here.

#213 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:32 pm

supercane4867 · #214 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:36 pm

Holy crap

#215 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:37 pm

It's growing larger in size too.

I hate to make the comparison...but how does the environment compare to Haiyan?

#216 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
zeehag wrote:making hotel reservations. will leave my boat to itself which scares me more than dying in a cane.
i am not happy.
when this is done with us i will own nothing and have no home. that scares me more than anything.
and i will have a heavy hotel bill i wont be able to pay. is that living? or is protecting my home from death by hurricane, which seems a sure thing at present.
yes i am going into a room. or taking over the hotel lobby.

I will be praying for you regardless, and so will everyone on here.

Amen!! Zeehag, I certainly understand all that you may lose in this monster storm. The prospects of losing your home and other valuables potentially is terrible. However, protecting your life and family takes precedence right now!! Please take every step to protect your life and family. You can replace a home and other valuables. However, you can not replace your life and those of your love ones!! I am praying for you and everyone in Mexico right now that is staring down this natural disaster.

#217 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:39 pm

from: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

22:15Z

#218 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:39 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's growing larger in size too.

I hate to make the comparison...but how does the environment compare to Haiyan?

Haiyan was a freak that had many variables line up in its favor.

Maybe Rick 2009 is a better (unfortunately as well) comparison?

WeatherGuesser · #219 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:46 pm

4 at landfall?

More?

Less?

supercane4867 · #220 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's growing larger in size too.

I hate to make the comparison...but how does the environment compare to Haiyan?

Haiyan was a freak that had many variables line up in its favor.

Maybe Rick 2009 is a better (unfortunately as well) comparison?

The rate of intensification is comparable to Linda which both happened in strong El nino year. Although I doubt satellite estimate will be as high as Linda since they are more conservative nowadays

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