EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Man. Cant. Get. Enough. Of. Satellite. Loops.

Recon will likely be sampling it in its peak state. Hope the pilot is careful and they sample the storm safely. Looks like it will be the strongest storm to be sampled since Wilma?

Megi.

Megi had higher winds than Wilma, but its pressure was 8mb higher

[TheStormExpert]

10pm CDT Advisory, winds up to 140kts(160mph).

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 230238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Patricia
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.1 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area Friday afternoon or evening.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach the warning areas overnight or early
Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area late Friday.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[TheStormExpert]

10pm CDT Discussion.

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C
cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the
intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.

The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an
initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during
the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to
better reflect the latest consensus guidance.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area overnight or early Friday.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, my prayers are really deep and heavy right now for the people along the Southwestern coastal region of Mexico the next 24 hours. This situation potentially could be catastrophic for that area and I really hope all down there really took all extreme preparations for this monster. Also, can not forget to mention the life threatening mudslides and extreme flooding which will be occuring inland in the aftermath of Patricia's ladfall in Mexico. Just a terrible, terrible situation embarking upon the people of Mexico the next few days.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 15:59:16 N Lon : 105:03:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.1 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -6.1C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

Not backing off at all dvorak. This is WPAC super typhoon monsters type stuff legit.

[supercane4867]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 15:59:16 N Lon : 105:03:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.1 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -6.1C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Notice the satellite viewing angle is getting more tilted on each frame. We won't know the real eye temp until recon

[CrazyC83]

That is definitely a T7.5 there. Would be T8.0 if the CDG can close right off.

[terrapintransit]

HOLY EFF!! This thing has exploded into a cat 5 monster from a tropical storm in just 24 hrs?? Is this for real?? That is one tight wrap..

[TheProfessor]

If only she were in the middle of nowhere so we could enjoy her beauty.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 15:59:16 N Lon : 105:03:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.1 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -6.1C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Notice the satellite viewing angle is getting more tilted on each frame. We won't know the real eye temp until recon

http://i.imgur.com/iZb0U9E.jpg

Good point about the viewing angle. I think this eye is probs 20C+ actually.

[supercane4867]

Bad pass is bad

[galaxy401]

Looks better than Rick and I remember being stunned by that storm!

[cycloneye]

It will be a historic mission as he says.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 18m18 minutes ago
You better believe I'm staying up for 6z recon on #Patricia -- could be one for the history books @RyanMaue !

[Yellow Evan]

Also SSD and internal AODT is at T7.5 and T7.4 I think.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 16:03:12 N Lon : 105:05:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 931.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.3 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -81.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[SouthDadeFish]

This is absolutely historic stuff. Incredibly scary for Mexico as well. I am debating setting an alarm to see what recon finds, but I fear I won't be able to fall back asleep. What an amazing rate of intensification.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Patricia gets stronger.

[supercane4867]

Can't stop watching satellite

[Kingarabian]

Over a 100 people including guests browsing this forum and it's not a Atlantic storm. Recon will be really exciting to watch. I wonder how the crew is feeling right now.