EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Taking a step back, and while also acknowledging that each storm is unique, this certainly supports extreme wind speeds and sub 900 mb pressures in similar structured storms in other basins, particularly the western Pacific. Storms like Nuri '14, Mufia '11, Parma '09, Dianmu '04, just to name a few had similarly cold CDOs and small eyes (some like Nuri had even warmer eyes!), but were not rated as such (except for arguably Nuri) due to the absence of aircraft reconnaissance.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde: 894/25.

Pressure 892 mb - beats Linda by 10.

and beats Wilma's 24hr deepening record by 2 so thats a new world record

Was the starting pressure last night measured by Recon though?

[Ntxw]

Taking a step back, and while also acknowledging that each storm is unique, this certainly supports extreme wind speeds and sub 900 mb pressures in similar structured storms in other basins, particularly the western Pacific. Storms like Nuri '14, Mufia '11, Parma '09, Dianmu '04, just to name a few had similarly cold CDOs and small eyes (some like Nuri had even warmer eyes!), but were not rated as such (except for arguably Nuri) due to the absence of aircraft reconnaissance.

Yep, a lot will be told about the WPAC beasts from this mission and storm.

[hurricaneCW]

If Patricia is 890-895mb then Haiyan was probably 870-875 or lower.

[Hurricaneman]

Dropsonde: 894/25.

Pressure 892 mb - beats Linda by 10.

and beats Wilma's 24hr deepening record by 2 so thats a new world record

Was the starting pressure last night measured by Recon though?

I'm not sure but I believe it was

[supercane4867]

There is over 100hPa pressure change in less than 50km. I'm guessing it may set some kind of record for steepest pressure gradient ever observed

[CrazyC83]

If Patricia is 890-895mb then Haiyan was probably 870-875 or lower.

No, since the pressure relationships between basins are not greatly different, and Haiyan was at a lower latitude.

[CrazyC83]

Regardless, I would expect a Special Advisory around 12:30 am CDT, and that will be one for the ages.

[Yellow Evan]

If Patricia is 890-895mb then Haiyan was probably 870-875 or lower.

Haiyan formed under a ridge, which supports higher pressures.

[northjaxpro]

It is amazing that in the past 30 years, we have tracked and observed through Recon in our side of the hemisphere four of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded with Gilbert and Wilma in the North Atlantic Basin, Linda and now Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Basin. This is why I love weather and tracking and observing the tropics so much and staying up late for historic events like this!!

[CrazyC83]

It is amazing that in the past 30 years, we have tracked and observed through Recon in our side of the hemisphere four of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded with Gilbert and Wilma in the North Atlantic Basin, Linda and now Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Basin. This is why I love weather and tracking and observing the tropics so much and staying up late for historic events like this!!

We just have to remember that there are people in the direct path of this beast, including two large cities - Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

[supercane4867]

Bravo for the 8.2.1 ADT. It's the only satellite analysis to reveal the true intensity of Patricia

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 917.8mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

It is amazing that in the past 30 years, we have tracked and observed through Recon in our side of the hemisphere four of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded with Gilbert and Wilma in the North Atlantic Basin, Linda and now Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Basin. This is why I love weather and tracking and observing the tropics so much and staying up late for historic events like this!!

We just have to remember that there are people in the direct path of this beast, including two large cities - Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

Seems that Manzanillo will avoid the core of this hurricane. Just south Puerto Vallarta is looking like ground zero.

[Hurricaneman]

It is amazing that in the past 30 years, we have tracked and observed through Recon in our side of the hemisphere four of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded with Gilbert and Wilma in the North Atlantic Basin, Linda and now Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Basin. This is why I love weather and tracking and observing the tropics so much and staying up late for historic events like this!!

We just have to remember that there are people in the direct path of this beast, including two large cities - Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

Seems that Manzanillo will avoid the core of this hurricane. Just south Puerto Vallarta is looking like ground zero.

If this keeps going west of track Puerto Vallarta could be ground zero

[1900hurricane]

If Patricia is 890-895mb then Haiyan was probably 870-875 or lower.

No, since the pressure relationships between basins are not greatly different, and Haiyan was at a lower latitude.

If Patricia is 890-895mb then Haiyan was probably 870-875 or lower.

Haiyan formed under a ridge, which supports higher pressures.

As a counterargument to these points, exceptionally low pressures have been recorded in the vicinity of 10*N in the past. Perhaps the best example is Super Typhoon Rita from 1978. Rita, which was a fairly small storm, had a 878 pressure measured by recon only about a degree north of where Haiyan was at T8.0 while similarly being forced west rather quickly by a strong subtropical ridge. Unfortunately though, we'll never really know Haiyan's true intensity, whatever it was.

[northjaxpro]

Absolutely. Before all of this craziness with the history Patricia has set tonight, I stressed in earlier posts just how catastrophic this monster could be when she makes landfall tomorrow on the SW Mexico coast. Plus, I just don't want to think about the even more potential castastrophic flooding and mudslides that will be occuring inland. Absolutely, all should keep the people in Mexico in our prayers in the days to come, and for those in Texas who could be facing rainfall totalss from 15-20 inches or possibly more in some areas as Patricia's remnants are just going to completely drench much of Texas the next several days through this weekend.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved floater loop:
http://imgur.com/K91ETy6

[supercane4867]

28°C inside the eye per VDM. I believe this is the second highest measured eye temp by recon in W hemisphere only behind Rita

[Yellow Evan]

28°C inside the eye per VDM. I believe this is the second highest measured eye temp by recon in W hemisphere only behind Rita

Tips's was 30C IIRc.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT back to 8.3


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 16:18:30 N Lon : 105:21:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 917.8mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C